Kalith

Verified Tanker [EU]
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About Kalith

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  1. Ok that makes sense, let me know when/where/how you're going to make the expected value available.
  2. I'm ok with switching over if the values tank specific and makes sense. I agree that we don't want several different wn8 ratings. Which stats do you use as a source ? Anyway, keep me informed on when you release your expected values.
  3. Sorry for the long hiatus. Took a vacation and then got swamped with work. Anyway, pleased to announce the new expected values. This time it's based on the stats of all players on all WG servers (> 1000 battles, tanks with > 50 battles), calculated with Gryphon's method/script, slightly modified to deal with larger data files. The following substitutions were performed: 15617,Object 907,16897,Object 140 15905,M60,14113,M48A1 Patton 55841,T95E6,14113,M48A1 Patton 58641,VK7201,9489,E 100 63537,121B,4145,121 58881,IS-5,5377,IS-3 11809,T23E3,1569,T20 54273,SU-76I,2369,FCM 36 Pak 40 59425,T34 B,2849,T34 12577,M4 Improved,52257,M4A2E4 Sherman 13905,FV4005 Stage II,9297,FV215b (183) 53793,T95E2,5921,M26 Pershing 59665,Grosstraktor - Krupp,2385,Vickers Medium Mk. III 61457,Pz.Kpfw. III Ausf. K,6417,Pz.Kpfw. III/IV 54033,Pz.Kpfw. V\/IV Alpha,51473,Pz.Kpfw. V\/IV 49409,IS-6 B,9217,IS-6 64273,Panzer 58 Mutz,49937,Schwarzpanzer 58 59681,M4A3E8 Thunderbolt VII,1313,M4A3E8 58913,T26E5,59169,T26E5 Patriot http://wottactic.com/expected_v33.json http://wottactic.com/expected_v33.csv You can test out the calculator here http://wottactic.com/wn8_standalone.html. Wottactic.com will switch over in the next week, but it takes a few days to recalculate the history. Code and methodology is still here: https://github.com/karellodewijk/wn8_expected.
  4. I gathered the player list. This list should contain all players across all servers who played 1 or more RANDOM battles in world of tanks. with the amount of random battles played. (~47.32 mil players). http://forum.wottactic.com/other/players_jul_12_2017.7z I shuffled that list and am now downloading the stats for all players with > 1000 battles to generate the wn8 values. I probably will not end up downloading them all but a sufficiently large sample.
  5. @bounceplink I remember reading it somewhere, anyway Gryphon_ will know. Anyway I've started on an update. Like before I'm starting by gathering a player list first but this time I'm building one with players across all servers. It might take some time to gather but I'll use that player list again in the future and publish it for other people to use.
  6. The expected values have actually always been based on only the EU server, I've just used a much larger sample of players. I've noticed on average wn8 with my expected values seems a bit higher overall. I can't really say for certain why as I don't know how/which data was gathered to calculate the expected values before. Anyway I'll be starting an update probably next weekend. I do plan this time to gather data across servers instead.
  7. Basically the script will pick any tank that a player has > 50 battles on. The problem is that it takes some time for enough people to reach 50 battles on a tank to be statistically useful. Mostly no, there is no real way to tell them apart, except maybe taking a snapshot now and using the difference in stats rather than absolute stats. It's not ideal, I'll admit. I believe Android25 is collecting a stats dump of all players atm. If we have that we can use that as base, we can use that to calculate expected values based on difference between that and some point in the future. Hell we could include spotting damage/tracking damage/armor use in the rating as well then if wg does not change how they are calculated in between.
  8. @User Can you five me your wg id, so I can take a look ? I've moved the stats for wottactic.com to these new expected values. I don't want to fragment wn8 unnecessarily. But for reason mentioned earlier I also won't implement the v30 expected values. Everyone is free to adopt/use/(re)publish/improve or modify the tank specific wn8 expected values I've published, and I'll update them occasionally for the foreseeable future. I think tank specific values are important for a more accurate and less padable rating and I hope people will adopt them or come up with another set of tank specific expected values to use.
  9. @User I checked for the ISU-130 and it is listed: 58625,1.01,1369.06,0.69,0.98,51.12 On what account did it mess up the stats ? @bounceplink I make no assumptions based on tier. The expected values for a tank are based on the performance of players on that tank compared to their performance on other tanks. This is plain wn8, I didn't change anything. It will take quite a long time for the expected values to reflect recent changes. I've not modified the way the expected values are calculated except for the tanks explicitly mentioned, I've even used the same code. I've simply applied it to a larger dataset. Also try to compare against v29 as it's the last version that had per tank values. It is possible a tank is not picked up if it wasn't mentioned in v30 and nobody has played > 50 battles on it. Fluctuations are normal. There isn't even a guarantee that it remains the same on average, the entire scale could have shifted up a bit. I sort of expected as much as previous expected values were calculated from a player list taken from a rating website which is slightly biased towards better players. As I mentioned the expected values are calculated on all EU accounts with > 1000 random battles (random columns on API) taken about a week ago now. 2464513 players in total. I purposely didn't rely on rating sites because they are always biased towards people who look up their stats. I built the player list by just asking for the random battle count of all accounts ids 500000000-550000000. It's really not so bad as you can query a 100 accounts in a single request. Of course many accounts come back empty because they don't exist. @Android25 It took me about 1 day to create the list of players and 5 days to download the data. I basically sent a request every 150ms or 7 a second to stay below the WG recommended maximum of 10 requests a seconds. Requests that bounced for whatever reason are automatically retried. Yes it takes some time to gather the data if WG is reading this, if you release a database dump every few months or so, that would be very handy and we wouldn't have to harass your api servers quite as much :).
  10. It works fine for me, note it takes wg id's like: 505943778, not names or anything.
  11. I've now plugged in the values for the remaining tanks, I've updated the post accordingly. You can check out the stats of a player with the new rating here: http://wottactic.com/wn8_standalone.html It's a little basic, but it gives you some idea.
  12. Ok I'll use that for the remaining tanks. For the tanks in the 'new' pluglist already, it's definitely a better approximation, also still can't open attachments on this forum
  13. I'll add the rating to wottactic as wn8 experimental or something. I had another look at the tank list and looked them up. swarzpanzer 58 is the mutz black edition and the is-6B is the is-6 black edition, so those are obvious. Pz.Kpfw. V/IV is apparantly the Pz.Kpfw. V/IV alpha, which is identical to the regular Pz.Kpfw. V/IV The chieftain T95 will be a cw reward tank. The BT-SV and pz2J are just very rare premium tanks. The M6A2E1 was apparently available as a pre-order package for wot a long time ago. The M4A3E8 Thunderbolt VII, Strv 103B, mausschen, T-100 LT and wz-132A, FV4005 Stage II have been released but are just new. Not sure how the T26E5 made it onto this list, that's the patriot, I thought it was pretty popular but I only have 14 people on record playing more than 50 battles in it am I missing something ? Anyway can use the easy 8 value for the thunderbolt those are pretty similar. But I don't know how comfortable I am guessing values for the Strv 103B, mausschen, T-100 LT and wz-132A, FV4005, they are not sufficiently similar to other tanks imo, maybe I should use the values from the weighted version.
  14. Well I finished gathering the data and creating new expected value files. First of all here is a useful database for anyone debarking on something similar: http://forum.wottactic.com/other/input.7z. It contains a large csv file with lines such as: "userid","compDescr","title","type","tier","countryid","battles","victories","damage_dealt","frags","spotted","defence_points" for every tank of every player with > 1000 battles on the eu server. As for processing the data: I've taken two approached. One identical to Gryphon's method. For CW reward tanks, I've used the closest related tank, when in doubt I picked one that's probably a little bit better. 15617,Object 907,16897,Object 140 15905,M60,14113,M48A1 Patton 55841,T95E6,14113,M48A1 Patton 58641,VK7201,9489,E 100 63537,121B,4145,121 58881,IS-5,5377,IS-3 11809,T23E3,1569,T20 Then there were some exceedingly rare or new tanks. partly based on the community pluglist, partly just common sense: 54273,SU-76I,2369,FCM 36 Pak 40 59425,T34 B,2849,T34 12577,M4 Improved,52257,M4A2E4 Sherman 13905,FV4005 Stage II,9297,FV215b (183) 53793,T95E2,5921,M26 Pershing 58369,Object 260 mod. 1945,7169,IS-7 59665,Grosstraktor - Krupp,2385,Vickers Medium Mk. III 61457,Pz.Kpfw. III Ausf. K,6417,Pz.Kpfw. III/IV 54033,Pz.Kpfw. V\/IV Alpha,51473,Pz.Kpfw. V\/IV 49409,IS-6 B,9217,IS-6 64273,Panzer 58 Mutz,49937,Schwarzpanzer 58 59681,M4A3E8 Thunderbolt VII,1313,M4A3E8 Then there are a few very new or very rare tanks that I didn't have enough data, I've gone with the average values from v30 5681,0.68,1100.00,2.15,0.63,51.27 4737,1.12,2153.40,0.71,0.64,49.22 13905,1.12,2153.40,0.71,0.64,49.22 15441,0.88,1162.12,1.31,0.91,51.62 18705,0.90,1579.22,0.98,0.68,51.03 19473,0.95,1918.96,1.08,0.64,49.34 49921,1.00,1106.68,1.02,0.92,54.23 52513,0.92,1283.61,1.07,0.81,52.12 52225,1.21,290.59,1.71,1.32,57.68 19201,0.68,1400,2.15,0.63,51.27 except for the pz2j because there is nothing average about this tank. I just went on the limited data i have: 51729,1.82,353.81,1.56,1.78,65.19 Then I've tried an alternative approach that removes the 50 minimum battle requirements, but when doing the linear regression weights the entries with the amount of battles. For popular tanks it yields very similar results, but for rarer tanks, there is a lot more data to work with. I have again replaced the CW reward tanks with their closest counterparts 15617,Object 907,16897,Object 140 15905,M60,14113,M48A1 Patton 55841,T95E6,14113,M48A1 Patton 58641,VK7201,9489,E 100 63537,121B,4145,121 58881,IS-5,5377,IS-3 11809,T23E3,1569,T20 There were no relevant entries in the pluglist. And only these 9 tanks had insufficient. 15441, 17217, 18705, 19457, 51473, 52993, 19201, 62785, 63233 JITT, Chieftain\/T95, KV-4 Kreslavskiy, Mäuschen, AMX M4 mle. 49, Pz.Kpfw. V\/IV, A-32, T-100 LT Resulting expected values: regular: http://forum.wottactic.com/other/expected_v32.csv, http://forum.wottactic.com/other/expected_v32.json weighted: http://forum.wottactic.com/other/expected_v31w.csv, http://forum.wottactic.com/other/expected_v31w.json Code and detailed procedures at: https://github.com/karellodewijk/wn8_expected So what do you think ?
  15. The WG api has no concept of recent battles. It has only totals. The way stat websites calculate recent performance is, they take a snapshot of your tank stats, then a little later they take another snapshot and they calculate the difference.