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Found 12 results

  1. A contributor of reddit has done a 99% UCL calc on a personal data set and came up with the following: I have no idea of whether this could be discerned from the API, but this kind of ninja nerf would be such a WG kind of thing to do. I wonder if the OP is a member here, it'd be interesting to have him present to our math guys.
  2. I am usually better than average in tier 6 tanks so when I struggled to get wins I began to notice that most of my matches were tier 8 and I was constantly becoming powerless to influence games enough to pull out the odd win here or there to pull my win rate above 50%. It was so bad actually that my win rate after 50 games is 42%, 21 wins and 29 losses. I played these 50 games over three days with no other battles in any other tanks. The new tiering possibilities seems to be broken down like this, using the VK3000D as the sample tank and in order of difficulty: Top tier (ex. Tier 6 to 4) Partial Top Tier (Tier 6 to 5) Middle Tier (Tier 7-5) Only Tier (Only tier 6) Partial Bottom Tier (Tier 7-6) Bottom Tier (Tier 8-6) After 50 games, a decent sample size, here are the results (WN8 2435 for these 50 games): Top = 5 (4-1 80%) Partial Top = 0 (NA) Middle = 5 (3-2 60%) Only Tier 6 = 13 (5-8 38%) Partial Bottom = 1 (1-0 100%) Bottom = 26 (8-18 31%) Bottom tier games dominated my play time more than any other bracket combined. If I add together all the other brackets to get a win rate, it is 54%. Which is lower than I hoped it would be, but compared to being bottom tier with a WR of 31%, it is amazing. Is this an isolated incident or have others been experiencing the same thing? I'd personally like to know so that I can save whatever is left of my WR and not play tier 6 anymore until this is addressed by WG.
  3. Christmas tree event is fun, in one hour I got tier VIII tree and three out of four female crew members. So after I recieve my crew, I've run my new tier I tank and... well I think I forgot how does it look at tier I games... PS: As I won't play until 27 of December I decided to bought 5 extra boxes, which allows me to gain tier IX tree (with fourth and final crew member) and as a bonus 1500 gold. Worth it
  4. Since there is no topic about this yet: Few days ago i saw the following on TAP: – +-1 balance is not planned, but instead a 3-5-7 system; This was only lised once, and not in more detail, but i think its a change as big as gold ammo or the switch from +3 to +2 mm. The reason beiing, that if that rule is enforced ``strict`` it means: no more sole bottom tier tanks (always atleast 7 low tiers) no more top tier ehavy fights, so no more games with 4-10 tier 10 tanks no more fight with only 2 tiers ???? (say 8 and 9 or 9 and 10) The impact of this change is massive, since it means: The moment there is a tier 10 platoon, its only that platoon as tier 10, The moment there is tier 10 arty, it means at most 2 tier 10 tanks. Triple arty platoons will totally fuck mm, unless WG adds ``special measurements`` since you get 3 tier 10 arty as top tiers, and thats it, so unless mm balances this with 3 other tier 10 arty you get full retard mm, something WG wants to prevent.... Light tanks get way better mm, since a tier 8 scout will always get into a game with at most 3 tier 10, 5 tier 9 and 6 other tier 8. It also leads to 2 very important questions: no more +3 mm for light tanks??? tier 7 scouts no longer see tier 10? no more arty platoons at all, since triple platoon as top tier is basically impossible, or do arty platoons get mm penalty? what about tier 10 arty platoons? What about spmm vehicles? IS6 always top tier 10 2 other tier 8? no way WG is this stupid right?? tier 8 spmm platoon = only tier 8 when top tier = 90% winratio possible?? And it ofc means a massive balance shift, since tanks will fight much more same and lower tier tanks, balance wise tanks with good armor and bad guns will benefit while those with bad armor and good guns will ``suffer`` (relative speaking) A Black Prince will become much better, while an Tiger becomes less effective, paper medium tanks with good guns loose their strength while slow bricks become ``stronger``. So: Will we really get this mm? given that WG is very silent last months and everything is moved to: ``the great rebalance`` i get more and more the feeling that either nothing will change, or that WG will go full retard, changing: Chaning mm to 3-5-7 Banning arty platoons Worse mm for platoons (hence they get the exp bonus ) Penetration nerf of a year back Would totally change the game, a tier 10 medium with 240 pen is shit, but not when it can club tier 8/9 tanks all day long, while banning arty platoons would also improve the game... Or is it just dumb talk from Storm and will nothing happen? WG even made a video about the ``significant changes`` Total new mm would certainly require total rebalance (like how gold ammo needed total rebalance, but WG somehow forgot that...)
  5. So, since yesterday 9.7 is up. I've started grinding the last US med line and am currently grinding the T20 (which is awesome btw ). Did a few battles and noticed there is like hardly any arty in the game anymore (5 battles played, 1 arty ...). Other members from my clan noticed the same thing (although we were not platooning). And it stayed like that all night. Then we started noticing the queue itself. 30-50 meds and heavies in queue while there were consistantly 300-400 arties and lights in queue. Not being anti-light we hadn't even noticed the number of lights per battle, so we decided to check. And sure enough, 1-2 lights per battle. A guy playing his bulldog complained MM took at least 1 min to get into a battle. So was yesterday a fluke? Or did they change the MM, where I just missed the info? Anyone else notice the lack of arties (hurray!! ) Is it the same on the US servers? Thx,
  6. So AW is doing what players have been begging WG for 3 years now ... For me, I don't really want skilled MM. That is, I don't mind playing in battles crowded by pubbies/potatoes/... Hell, I consider myself to be barely any better than most anyways. However, what I do really dislike in WoT is the unbalanced MM. So often I see teams of complete green-blue-purple against teams of red-orange-yellow. Now I'm not saying I'm always in the worse team, that does balance out in the end. But I don't understand how hard it would be to take the same 30 players and switch the teams around to spread the skill level (in other words: balanced MM). Often this can be done even with the same tanks that are in the battle, but if not, let the MM have 5 seconds longer to fill the gaps ... I'll try just as hard as in any battle, but in my opinion, it's not that fun. Even if you are on the winning side. Steam rolling the enemy team, barely doing any damage ... *thoughts?*
  7. need to set enemy 1 tier higher, on fire >>>need pref 8 or pref 7 because Matchmaker actually wants me to be top tier every game..... Anyone willing to help?
  8. Hello all, Looking at old wotlabs topics, there has been spoken quite a bit about differences between NA and EU server (more baddies / unicums, more gold ammo, more/less camp) But just as important as perception and so on, is what tanks are driving around, lots of tds / heavys will lead to camp, lots of mediums counter that, different tiers beiing popular leads to a different mm distributions, also popularity of certain nations can lead to different playstyles. I copy pasted some global server data from wot-news (`recent` 4 weeks data, from before new german TD line) into an excel file and made some quick comparisons (While the data is alrdy a little old, long term differences will still be visible) I compared: - nation distribution - tier distribution - class distribution And this showed some interesting things imo.. Beforehand i had assumed that (when looking from EU pov towards NA pov) - less US tanks / chinese - more brits / french / german tanks - more high tiers in EU (avg tier in EU has been higher since Snib started making server stats comparisons i think) - more TDs / SPGs - less mediums / light tanks If you have a look at the above tables, you can see i was both wrong and right - on US server there are almost 45% more US tanks as on EU - on US server there are a lot less german and russian tanks - on US server there are more british tanks (imo suprising) - on US server there are less french and chinese tanks the biggest suprise was for me the huge difference in USSR tanks 29 vs 23,8 %, that is quite a lot, also on US server there are even more US tanks as i though (20,85 vs 29,12%) Tier distribution is rather straight forward, lowest 5 tiers are more popular on NA, highest 5 tiers in EU Tank classes are also a bit suprising - TDs are equal (EU tiny bit more) - EU has much more heavys (31,06 vs 25,75) - NA has more light, medium and SPGs This tank distribution is interesting, since it means that EU has (relative): - less spotters (less light/medium tanks, NA has 10% more of these) - less arty (NA has 25% more arty as EU) - equal TDs (difference is marginal, however, US tanks and low tiers (T18) are (much) more popular on NA, so chance is that there (relative) more high tier tds on EU) - way more heavy tanks (20% more heavy tanks) this means that EU has less people moving around and less arty, while having more heavys. Important remarks here are: - on low tiers there are more light tanks and less heavys, due to the overall lower tier of NA the numbers of light and heavy tanks might be a little inflated (mostly light tanks) - new german TD line is not included, i guess new WTF line is the most popular td line on EU at this moment and it thus boosted the overall amount of german tanks, mostly at the cost US and medium players (my own feeling, no numbers sadly) - USSR meds and Japan meds are not included, these lines are however not (yet) very popular, so influence wont be that big (i think) ps: this might also explain why, EU players are more opposed against gold ammo, gold ammo is mostly a medium thing,
  9. WG explains how their MM works. Self explanatory. Did a cursory search and didn't see this topic elsewhere. This can be junkyarded if no one cares or the info appears elsewhere.
  10. Basically, anyone with pair of eyes and few working brain cells could do this at low server population. I sometimes used this "exploit" when server population was under 10-15k (late night on EU server, NA server is prob easier to rig). Problem starts when tomatoes start using this macro to alter MM and it causes problems due to widespread usage. Then WG is forced to take action, easiest one being disabling leave queue button for 5 seconds after joining (edit: or removing tank count from interface). Either way, he is an idiot for publishing it on official forum. EDIT2: Post was about using client side macro that enters queue , checks amount of players waiting in each tier , takes screenshot and then does the math about favorable match probability ( being top tier!) . It takes screenshot of tank counts throughout tiers and then picks best moment to join match. According to authors post, it had 90%+ success in doing so. Again, nothing players didnt do manually before, but making such mod available for mass use is dangerous. Should have taken screen of an opening post....
  11. Let's do an experiment. Let's say you flip a coin with a 50% chance of landing heads. You flip the coin X times. What is the longest streak of continuous heads (or tails) you can possibly hope to achieve? My answer is below: The longest streak of heads (or tails), out of a series of X throws, you can expect is approximately that of log2(X) More on Streaks Here's why. The chance of a streak of N consecutive heads is (0.5)N, this is because the odds of flipping four heads in a row, for example, would be (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5), or 0.0625. Now look at a streak of N consecutive heads, it is bound to start SOMEWHERE. So, in a series of X flips, we have a certain number of starting points, if there are G starting points for a series, the average number of times a streak of N will occur is therefore G (0.5)N. For example, if there were 100 start points, one would expect about three sequences of length 5 or more, because 100 x 0.03125 is 3.125. Hence, we would expect six streaks of five, three streaks of five heads, and three more of five tails, on average. What if we had a streak of 10 in a row out of 100 starting points (i.e. 110 flips)? The average number of streaks of ten heads in a row out of 100 is that of 100 x (0.5)10, which is about 0.1 (0.977, to be precise), doubling that, the odds of having a streak of ten heads or tails, in a row would be double that, 0.2 Let's see where this gets us. If three players flipped a coin 109 times (109 coins means 100 start points), the odds of at least ONE of them getting ten heads or tails in a row is about 50%. So, how do we find what the longest expected streak is? In general, when X(0.5)N is greater than 1, we can expect at least one streak of the sort to occur, when X(0.5)N is less than 1, we can expect the streak NOT to occur. The point between these two can be approximated to log2X, to give us the longest expected streak. Note that X is the number of STARTING points, not the number of FLIPS. Let's use an example, if I flipped a coin 32 times, I would have 28 possible starting points for a streak of 5, 27 start points for a streak of 6, and 26 for a streak of 7. On average, I can expect 0.42 streaks of 7 to occur, meaning that it is unlikely, but I could expect about 2 streaks of 5 to occur. So what do we have here? Let's assume a player determines his games purely by luck. He plays 1000 games. His longest expected streak would be about 10 games, and he can expect to have about two such streaks. The Best Part: This is if the player has a 50% chance of winning, good players drag their odds of losing streaks down, bad players drag them up For the purposes of this experiment, we shall ignore draws Let's say we have five players playing 1009 games (for 1000 start points), let's calculate the number of times they can expect to have a ten game losing streak (we can calculate the losing streak by NOT doubling the number) A 40%er would expect to have SIX such losing streaks A 45%er would expect to have just 2.5 such losing streaks A 50%er, as said earlier, could expect to have just ONE such streak A 55%er is unlikely to have such a streak, he could expect just 0.34 of a streak, meaning he could expect to have such a streak after about TWO such cycles of 1000 games, and even then, the odds of a streak of 10 losses after that many games would just be seven in ten. A 60%er could expect just 0.1 of such a streak, he would expect to have just a 50% chance of having such a streak after SIX cycles. All this, of course, is theoretical, and doesn't account for factors like playing form, but it's interesting to know. A bad player on bad form could easily be expected to have losing streaks of more than that, and a good player is certainly not exempt from the 60% chance either.
  12. Over the next few weeks I will develop first a realistic tank population simulator and then work on algorithms to improve MM fairness and reduce queue times. The eventual aim of this is to provide enough evidence to show that MM can be made faster and fairer. If anyone has a suggestion to either increase the realism of the player population simulator or improve MM algorithms please share them and if I have time and they are credible I'll try to implement them or at least provide enough resources for others to do so. This isn't a place to whine about MM or say I told you so, this is crowd sourcing 101. Population simulator The plan so far is to create a population simulator that generates tank type and tier in a realistic manner following the proportions of type and tier that can be found in this post: The idea is to basically recreate the MM waiting queue so we have realistic conditions to deal with for our new MM algorithms. Many more details to come. My coding preference is Matlab and it will be used for all of my simulations. Short description of MM algorithms: Current MM system: Appears to choose a battle tier and then fill up teams with the first tanks that meet the criteria. Restricted maximum number of arty Some balancing of arty. Restrictions and balancing of light tanks? I don't know, someone help me out. Overall limit on tier imbalance. I think this one has been thrown out to be honest. New MM proposal #1: Two team balancing act. Draws on 30 tanks with overlapping battle tier. Balances top tier with a maximum difference of 1. Balancing of second to top tier with max diff of 1. Restricts the maximum number of arty drawn into the pool of 30. Balances the number of arty on each team with a max difference of 1. Same balancing act for light tanks. No overall tier balancing. No balancing of other classes to maintain some variety. Skill based MM Not gonna write about it, not gonna code it. Action plan 0) Get advice an listen to algorithm proposals from community. 1) Create pop simulator 2) Recreate current MM to see if we get similar balance problems with similar frequency. 3) Code up and run simulations on the best MM algorithm suggestions. Your suggestions: Go! Start! Schnell!