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Treeburst

Expected damage values

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Are the expected damage values found on targetdamage.com accurate? 

I've been dicking around in the OI lately and I don't have very good numbers in it, in spite of winning a fair amount. So I decided I'd go check out the target values, and for a purple WN8 the expected damage is 1450. 

So I thought to myself that I must be incredibly awful to only pull in ~1k average damage when purple is 1450. Then I went over to the dpgwhores site to see what the top players were pulling in... Aaand there are two people over 1450 average damage. Two. 

If that number is accurate, why is it so high? How are the expected values computed?

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While i dont know any better about how expecteds itself are calculated, i can say that O-I is kinda silly when it comes to WN8. Noobs and average players gets extremely good results on it, which makes it very OP on those skill levels, which probably means very high expected values. The thing is that there is nothing to be abused on O-I for skilled players, making it somewhat meh for blues and actually utter trash for superunicorns. That explains why there is almost no one excteeding the expected values. Same story is with other mid tier jap heavies, but its by far less drastic. O-Ho and O-Ni also has quite high expected values.

What this proves that O-I is solid seal clubber but terrible WN8 padder.

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But if nobody can "exceed the expected values"... Why are they the expected values?

It seems strange to say "Ok, we are going to judge how fast you run the 40 yard dash" and then say that Usain Bolt level speed is what is needed to be in the top 1%. 

 

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1 hour ago, Treeburst said:

Are the expected damage values found on targetdamage.com accurate? 

I've been dicking around in the OI lately and I don't have very good numbers in it, in spite of winning a fair amount. So I decided I'd go check out the target values, and for a purple WN8 the expected damage is 1450. 

So I thought to myself that I must be incredibly awful to only pull in ~1k average damage when purple is 1450. Then I went over to the dpgwhores site to see what the top players were pulling in... Aaand there are two people over 1450 average damage. Two. 

If that number is accurate, why is it so high? How are the expected values computed?

If I remember correctly the damage values on target damage assume 0 kills. I think people were upset or confused about it assuming a certain number of kills. 

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1 hour ago, Treeburst said:

But if nobody can "exceed the expected values"... Why are they the expected values?

It seems strange to say "Ok, we are going to judge how fast you run the 40 yard dash" and then say that Usain Bolt level speed is what is needed to be in the top 1%. 

 

"expected values" are based around average playlevel afaik. Not around unicum.

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43 minutes ago, zapyoug said:

"expected values" are based around average playlevel afaik. Not around unicum.

That's kind of my point. The "expected damage" for purple WN8 seems to be around 1445. Only two people on the NA server have an average damage that high. 

I understand that purple is supposed to be the top 1%, but in this case at least it seems as though you need to be in the top 0.0000000000000001% to get purple WN8. 

I don't care that much, my days of stat padding are behind me. But it seemed a little off, much like it does for clickers and TDs. 

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1. I don't know where targetdamage.com gets 1450 from, but it's probably making a bad assumption. WN8 isn't anywhere near linear, so if your rDmg, rFrag, rSpotC and rWinC scale similarly (which they usually do) then you only need 1.34x the expected values for unicum, or <1300 damage.

2. leggasiini is correct on the skill-scaling point. WN8 assumes that all tanks have equal skill scaling, which they obviously don't. The centre point for the expected values is around the average tier 10 skill level. Slow tanks generally pad for players below that skill level, and anti-pad for players above that skill level.

3. The O-I just had a big nerf (roughly 8% damage output), so the WN8 value will be harsh even for players around the expected value level.
 

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In the explanation thread on the page Folter linked to it said that purple wn8 damage was 1.5 times the expected damage of 950ish, came out pretty close to 1450. 

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13 minutes ago, Treeburst said:

In the explanation thread on the page Folter linked to it said that purple wn8 damage was 1.5 times the expected damage of 950ish, came out pretty close to 1450. 

Yes, but that was never actually true. WN8 was probably intended to be contribution-linear, but the platooning and tier-scaling problems in rWin wrecked that idea. Consider the effects of the 0.22 rDmg cap and the frags*dmg term. 1.34x expected damage for 2450 WN8 is about average in practice.

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3 hours ago, zapyoug said:

"expected values" are based around average playlevel afaik. Not around unicum.

Noobs do very well in the oi, as it is slow, insanely armoured with a kv2 gun that means aiming is not necessary. Angling is near impossible due to the flattish turret and the boobs, so it doesn't scale well compared to hovermeds for unicums, as it can't relocate well. this is kind of like the t110e3, where unicums don't do that well wn8 wise as it has a low skill ceiling. wn8 is designed to measure average players- to balance it for unicorns, tomatoes would be wayy too good in this tank. its the same with wn9- unlike xte its your damage/expected damage (i think), which makes it hard to balance.

this is a pretty good article explaining why wn8 doesn't works well for the very top and bottom-http://wotlabs.net/articles/wn8-good-bad-padding/

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47 minutes ago, garryallen said:

its the same with wn9

Nah, WN9 is a two value system. Sorta like xTE except with the values expressed differently and the lower one not being pathetically wrong.

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6 hours ago, garryallen said:

ok ty. however. it still doesnt scale well due to the low skill ceiling right?

It doesn't scale well. For damage it's about +8% for each +10% you'd gain in an average tank. That's actually worse skill scaling than tier 6 arties, although better than tier 8+ arties.

I don't like the term "skill ceiling", as it implies a hard limit beyond which skill doesn't matter, which doesn't fit the evidence in WoT.

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thanks for that. I used skill ceiling as its probably the easiest way to roughly describe it. while there are no limits to player skill, there are certain hard limits to tanks, like top speed, dpm, alpha, penetration etc. that make it almost impossible to reach the high wn8 values in tanks like the oi.

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