Canadian_Reaper

How many games for statistical relevance?

16 posts in this topic

Wasn't even remotely sure how to word this topic- people keep saying stuff like "don't worry about how bad/good you're doing, it's only been X number of games"

Just curious as to how many games people consider before it's a 'relevant" number.

Been doing the Japanese med grind, I picked up the STA2 first to train up a female crew,

111 game played, 1239 damage per game ,415 assisted, 55% Win rate

 STA1

87 games played , 1291 dpg, 446 assisted, 49% Win rate, same stats, 6% less wins, figured it was just a few games, no worries. Moved onto Type 61

139 games played, 1824 dpg, 490 assisted. 43% win rate.

I'm slightly above average in the Type 61 for DPG, and I'm at a 43% win rate.  

By contrast, I finished the 7/1 grind at 124 games played, 2026 dpg, 604 assisted, 59% win rate.

The 43% is driving me a little crazy and I;m starting to do stupid things to try and force a win.

100 games  seems like a decent amount, but very similar numbers has resulted in a 16% difference in games won.

So I'm curious as to people's opinions what's a "relevant" number of games? 50? 100? 300? 500?

 

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Thanks!

Looks like he uses 50 games (assuming I read the right one) , so.. 2 things, 

1) Somehow I'm absolutely appalling in the Type 61 and pretty good in the 7/1. 

2) Reading his posts make my head hurt.

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16 hours ago, Canadian_Reaper said:

Wasn't even remotely sure how to word this topic- people keep saying stuff like "don't worry about how bad/good you're doing, it's only been X number of games"

Just curious as to how many games people consider before it's a 'relevant" number.

Been doing the Japanese med grind, I picked up the STA2 first to train up a female crew,

111 game played, 1239 damage per game ,415 assisted, 55% Win rate

 STA1

87 games played , 1291 dpg, 446 assisted, 49% Win rate, same stats, 6% less wins, figured it was just a few games, no worries. Moved onto Type 61

139 games played, 1824 dpg, 490 assisted. 43% win rate.

I'm slightly above average in the Type 61 for DPG, and I'm at a 43% win rate.  

By contrast, I finished the 7/1 grind at 124 games played, 2026 dpg, 604 assisted, 59% win rate.

The 43% is driving me a little crazy and I;m starting to do stupid things to try and force a win.

100 games  seems like a decent amount, but very similar numbers has resulted in a 16% difference in games won.

So I'm curious as to people's opinions what's a "relevant" number of games? 50? 100? 300? 500?

 

You could have a 3 million games sample size and some cocktard will jump in and claim hurr durr samplze sizez too small durr

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I would say 50-200 games for most people, usually it doesn't take more than 50games to get to any tier but X with premium nowadays, but it is still is small enough to be swayed like things such as specials, weekends etc, while 100 is what most people would consider to be sufficient, and a few insisting on close or more than 200. And then you have people who will say you need at least a 1000 :P

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If, we are talking about a sizable sample where other players would look at it and go okay this is how "you" perform in said tank I would personally say 150-200 Battles.

139 games played, 1824 dpg, 490 assisted. 43% win rate - Looks to me like bad trades early deaths just off the stats alone, I'm not calling you bad I understand how hard trading in this tank can be. The cent 7/1 on the other hand has turret armor and a more accurate gun to help with distance shots and bounces I wouldn't be so hard on yourself I would say the Type 61 is one of the more harder tier 9 meds to play right next to the Obj.430II and the WZ-120.

If you want to fix the stats on the type 61 I would personally tell you to platoon(with heavies T10's etc) and don't front line it if you can help it keep your HP in the beginning of the match But also look for ways to get earlier damage in Spots which require gun depression and mid-late game use your HP to deal with the remaining enemies since the DPM is quite good and remember A tank like the type 61 can still get full penned by arty so be careful. 

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On 13.05.2017 at 5:37 PM, Strigonx said:

You could have a 3 million games sample size and some cocktard will jump in and claim hurr durr samplze sizez too small durr

Technically even 3 milion games may be skewed by a low probability chain of events since low probability is not zero probability.

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Basically there is no answer to this question. For any number x of the games played there is still probability y, that your result in those x games is "incorrect" by some percentage z compared to your "true" skill in that tank. As the number x increases, the combination y*z decreases. But even if you played 10,000 games, there is still (very small) possibility y, that there is some significant difference z between your "true" skill and your achieved result. It is possible to get very unlucky in any amount of games, just the possibility gets smaller and smaller and smaller. At least that's what I keep telling myself after I have a string of 300 games with 43% WR... :) 

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Overall there is no good answer. You have to compare your dpg, kpg, spg vs other players with similar win rate on the same tank. If it's different there is still a possibility you are deailing your damage in different parts of the battle, different areas or your presence itself has a smaller influence on the result though given you compare stats in same tanks those stats should have a smaller influence on win rate.

Most people here say 100% games but I've had 100-150 game runs on some tanks which were clear anomalies in terms of win rate (though again maybe my idiot agressive playstyle works good in some tanks despite the too low dmg)

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Thanks all!

It's not really a "OMG I suck in the tank" as it is the fact that I'm thinking of applying to some Clans, and of course they are all interested in the "recent" stats. and since this Japanese line has killed my already non impressive recent, I'm kind of just looking for excuses.

Also it's just curiosity , I read other posts where someone talks about sample size, and it's usually about 100 games, (or so it seems) Just seemed a big difference between the two tanks over the 100 games or so. 

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Just now, Canadian_Reaper said:

Thanks all!

It's not really a "OMG I suck in the tank" as it is the fact that I'm thinking of applying to some Clans, and of course they are all interested in the "recent" stats. and since this Japanese line has killed my already non impressive recent, I'm kind of just looking for excuses.

Also it's just curiosity , I read other posts where someone talks about sample size, and it's usually about 100 games, (or so it seems) Just seemed a big difference between the two tanks over the 100 games or so. 

Your Type61 WR is for sure too low but shit WR to DPG often happens in soft support tanks. I had that problem in my TVP TVU. Still your WR should be higher. How many of those games were with the small gun? Less alpha may be less useful as a deterrent against enemy rushes. Also how much of the damage is during the mid game where the game is decided? 

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59 minutes ago, hazzgar said:

Your Type61 WR is for sure too low but shit WR to DPG often happens in soft support tanks. I had that problem in my TVP TVU. Still your WR should be higher. How many of those games were with the small gun? Less alpha may be less useful as a deterrent against enemy rushes. Also how much of the damage is during the mid game where the game is decided? 

Well actually done with the 61 grind ,doing much better with the STB (through all of 12 games..) Small gun was the first 20 or so, but the WR never really improved even after the big one. It may be  I tried to play it like the 7/1 , took up the same positions etc, but where (as mentioned) the 7/1 can and does bounce a decent amount of the turret, the 61 just gets penned over and over again. By the end of the grind I was definitely trying to snipe too much as I was just tired of getting penned by anything that hit me, including T49's and arty.

STB1 seems a lot better with the profile and turret, 2500 DPG so far,(again, a staggering 12) not even close to the 3K that so many of you churn out effortlessly (or so it seems) but decent enough.

~ And I think I've derailed my own topic.

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15 hours ago, Canadian_Reaper said:

Well actually done with the 61 grind ,doing much better with the STB (through all of 12 games..) Small gun was the first 20 or so, but the WR never really improved even after the big one. It may be  I tried to play it like the 7/1 , took up the same positions etc, but where (as mentioned) the 7/1 can and does bounce a decent amount of the turret, the 61 just gets penned over and over again. By the end of the grind I was definitely trying to snipe too much as I was just tired of getting penned by anything that hit me, including T49's and arty.

STB1 seems a lot better with the profile and turret, 2500 DPG so far,(again, a staggering 12) not even close to the 3K that so many of you churn out effortlessly (or so it seems) but decent enough.

~ And I think I've derailed my own topic.

To be honest now looking at my t8 med games your STA DPG is low. I pulled 54% with 1310 dpg in my t54mod1 and that tank should have a lower damage to win rate ratio due to it being slow, having low ammo and being armored meaning it doesn't rely on team as much. 1271 after 180 games left me with 40% win rate on the TVP VTU though similar dmg on the Pershing (only 50more) gave me 58% wr but that tank was amazing at spotting and given the speed it wasn't amazing at farming. 

In my opinion soft t8 meds are fucked anyway though you should be able to get a higher dpg and wr in the sta (both 1-2 ) if you increased sample size and played it more. Both tanks have vision and gun dep and the platform isn't super awkward like the FCM/TVP it isn't also easy to pen with He like the CDC and the gun stats are good. Though if the STB works for you no reason to go back

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