thepingman

Is it a good idea to always assume Minimum Alpha from your tank?

23 posts in this topic

Perhaps I'm getting a bit pessimistic starting this topic, but I think it worth discussing nonetheless.

As the title suggest, until now I've been playing the game and use "Average Alpha damage" the game shown in gun statistic to make decision in different kind of situations, like whether my AMX 50 100 will one clip that guy or not, or if I can take this guy's shot or not, for example.

But lately I've seen 1 hp tanks around more frequently, both my and enemy's team. It might be a confirmation bias, but it get me to think if using Average Alpha damage as criteria in decision making is a wrong way to play the game or not. And whether it'd make me more effective if I'm going to make decision based on lowest possible Alpha damage my tank could do (-25% Average), while assume maximum damage enemy could do (+25% Average damage), in the process of making decision.

For example, when I see enemy with 320 hp while I'm driving IS-3, I have to assume that my IS-3 won't kill him as its lowest possible roll is 290, and when I see enemy IS-3 while my tank has 480 hp, I must assume I cannot take any of his shot, as his maximum Alpha is 487 damage which will one shot my tank.

What do everyone think of this? Sorry if it's bother you or there's some topic like this before.

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Is it a good idea to always assume Minimum Alpha from your tank?

 

In a pessimistic way, yes, but that extreme like +25%, on average you should do exactly alpha like they advertised. About RNG, i would cut down RNG on accuracy and penetration, fuck alpha if you roll just about 1-2% of armor. That's bad. I'm fine with 25% alpha. 

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normal.gif

It works for dmg distribution so have this in mind all the time. 

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No you should not assume lowest possible roll for you and/or highest possible for enemy. If you do that, you will not make trades that are favorable like 99.9 % of times, and that is just stupid. Unless it's very specific situation, it's best to assume average alpha, because in the long run that is what you get. Specific situation could be for example two tanks with say 400 hit points against one-shot IS-3, and you have a possibility to take hit and kill IS-3, or wait a bit for your teammate to join you. In that situation there is no reason to not play it safe. But then if we say that it's 2v2 and you think your teammate is going to die to other enemy tank if you can't help him soon, then it's good to gamble and take the hit from IS-3 and hope he does not roll 400, because otherwise it's soon 1v2 and you are going to die anyway. You can't play WOT completely safe or you end up doing nothing. 

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i would call it being pragmatic instead.

not overestimating, or pushing your luck too much is important, as is having a plan or knowing the appropriate response should the need arise

 

TLDR: shit happens. be prepared for it 

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It's a "safe" assumption, but there's always something else.  Had an undamaged IS7 drive in front of my JPE the other day, I fired AP through his front plate and ammo racked him. He probably thought he could take a hit, and fire 2 shells into me. You never know. (Also I've bounced 300+ pen rounds off batchats more times than I care to think about)

That being said, I still swear there's some kind of extra thing, the number of games I've had where I've hit 10+ shots all rolling under the average damage is huge, I don't recall ever having a game where more than half my shots, let alone all of them, did above average damage.

That being said, it is the "safe" assumption, but you're going to be that guy on your team everyone hates as they take damage while you hide and refuse to poke, in case someone rolls max.

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Like a hero said: "shoot first think never"

If you kill good for you, if you dont well you had bad luck. You cant control it so why bother thinking about it. 

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2 hours ago, Canadian_Reaper said:

That being said, I still swear there's some kind of extra thing, the number of games I've had where I've hit 10+ shots all rolling under the average damage is huge, I don't recall ever having a game where more than half my shots, let alone all of them, did above average damage.

That would be confirmation bias in play... we remember the series of low rolls, but we don't necessarily remember the series of unlikely high rolls because in that case, it's working just as we hope it will work.

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I find this applies to so many things, including this:

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

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I still think that hitting a tank that has less HP than the alpha of your gun should kill it 100% of the time. Theres nothing more aggravating than rolling 330 on a 350hp tank with a 390 alpha gun. 

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Yes, I play like a single penetration will ammo rack me.

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I just shoot red tanks, I don't really analyze it.  Sometimes they go boom, sometimes I go boom, it all comes out in the wash.

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you just gotta take into account that if somebody is on your average roll in hp theres a 50% chance he'll eat a shot

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4 hours ago, waga100 said:

you just gotta take into account that if somebody is one your average roll in hp theres a 50% chance he'll eat a shot

That’s not true. Did you see distribution? Most of shots are in alpha area (maybe plus minus one variance) I didn’t check formula. That’s why they used Gauss instead of flat line (where every event have same probability).

 

low rolls have same chance as high rolls, and that is small!

f0604.gif

 

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If you assume your gun does 300 damage and the enemies does 500 damage if you are both driving the same tank then you can never make a trade, which is stupid.

You should be aware of what is possible but to play around an extremely unlikely outcome is not smart. It means you end up doing nothing which is the worst play you can make.

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3 hours ago, BlackAdder said:

That’s not true. Did you see distribution? Most of shots are in alpha area (maybe plus minus one variance) I didn’t check formula. That’s why they used Gauss instead of flat line (where every event have same probability).

 

low rolls have same chance as high rolls, and that is small!

f0604.gif

 

if somebody is on 400 hp and you have a 400 damage gun theres a half chance that you'll have damage roll that is below average, rolling above average is irreverent because they don't have extra hp and will die to anything 400 and above. When i say low roll i mean literally anything under your average damage. On the graph each side has 50%. You can just guesstimate from there in an actual game. I guess you should always play as if you'll roll low because you'll need a backup plan if you do and its something that seems way more unlucky than it accually is. If somebody is on your average damage per shot and you roll low it feels like rng screwed you when there is about a half chance of it happening which you need to plan for and not tilt because of it.

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24 minutes ago, waga100 said:

if somebody is on 400 hp and you have a 400 damage gun theres a half chance that you'll have damage roll that is below average, rolling above average is irreverent because they don't have extra hp and will die to anything 400 and above. When i say low roll i mean literally anything under your average damage. On the graph each side has 50%. You can just guesstimate from there in an actual game. I guess you should always play as if you'll roll low because you'll need a backup plan if you do and its something that seems way more unlucky than it accually is. If somebody is on your average damage per shot and you roll low it feels like rng screwed you when there is about a half chance of it happening which you need to plan for and not tilt because of it.

I know, but that’s trade off in RNG based system. I didn’t find sigma values so i can’ judge how thight curve is but that’s it. If they reduce marginal values you’ll still have chance of not killing the tank. 

And when you look at other side of medal, maybe guy received prior to the last hit all above average hits so he deserves some luck too. 

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oh yeah and every low roll to not kill somebody you high roll to get another overall.  doing the exact same damage every shot would be more weird than good to be honest but my point was when you low roll and don't kill somebody it feels like you got screwed over a lot more than you accually were.

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Not unless your target is in oneshot range. If so, then expect the worse. Otherwise, just trade away.

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43 minutes ago, waga100 said:

oh yeah and every low roll to not kill somebody you high roll to get another overall.  doing the exact same damage every shot would be more weird than good to be honest but my point was when you low roll and don't kill somebody it feels like you got screwed over a lot more than you accually were.

But in your games how many times you get lower roll and fail to kill en enemy. That’s rare case. Fixed alpha takes bit of suspense and to be honest luck. 

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Depends on the situation. If I'll end up taking catastrophic damage or die for failing to kill something, such as using autoloaders with a long reload, I'd consider minimum rolls.

I lost one game in my 50B that made me rage quit. I had over 1700 hp. Against me is 2 obj 140s, one at 322 hp, one at 343 hp, I had 3 shells left in the clip. I rolled 320, kill shot, 327... That 6 hp 140 killed me before I reloaded =.=

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46 minutes ago, Hally said:

Depends on the situation. If I'll end up taking catastrophic damage or die for failing to kill something, such as using autoloaders with a long reload, I'd consider minimum rolls.

I lost one game in my 50B that made me rage quit. I had over 1700 hp. Against me is 2 obj 140s, one at 322 hp, one at 343 hp, I had 3 shells left in the clip. I rolled 320, kill shot, 327... That 6 hp 140 killed me before I reloaded =.=

That's 16 hp. not 6.

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23 hours ago, Viruzzz said:

If you assume your gun does 300 damage and the enemies does 500 damage if you are both driving the same tank then you can never make a trade, which is stupid.

You should be aware of what is possible but to play around an extremely unlikely outcome is not smart. It means you end up doing nothing which is the worst play you can make.

Yeah 500 damage bounce, I always assume I will do minimum roll penetration.

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