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Does wg manipulate the mm in ways other than they admit to?

62 posts in this topic

28 minutes ago, 8_Hussars said:

I hear "low roll agony" all the time from clan mates (and some streamers) when they leave a tank with 20 and under HP.  I am fairly sure most could not rattle off the min/max range of the particular gun they are using in the heat of the moment (otherwise it would be predictive "watch me low roll this") so I suggest its part confirmation bias and part habit.

Remember that you never see the other side of the bell curve on this one.

You will never notice when you roll 301 on a 300 hp tank with a 390 alpha gun.

It is quite difficult not to fall victim to confirmation bias when all you can see is half of the data.

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29 minutes ago, 8_Hussars said:

I hear "low roll agony" all the time from clan mates (and some streamers) when they leave a tank with 20 and under HP.  I am fairly sure most could not rattle off the min/max range of the particular gun they are using in the heat of the moment (otherwise it would be predictive "watch me low roll this") so I suggest its part confirmation bias and part habit.

It's much less frustrating if you don't think of your gun's alpha as guaranteed. A 390 gun is only guaranteed 292 alpha, anything else is just a nice bonus. Same goes with pens, which is even more frustrating because we don't get to see those rolls in-game. 

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16 hours ago, GehakteMolen said:

(and this has been going on for months, my winratio (and those of some others i know) tanked hard since new mm, despite less arty bobs, sure grinding bad tanks also doesnt help, but the difference is remarkable (and ppl who use fake accounts and suchs seem to do even better as before...))

Indeed. Padding w/r isn't easy anymore since the MM decided platoons should hadly ever be top tier. 

 

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1 hour ago, Sapros said:

since the MM decided platoons should hadly ever be top tier. 

This is nothing new. MM takes pains to place platoons against other platoons and BY FAR the most platooning is at tier X and generally platooning increases a lot by going up tiers.

So even under the "old" MM, playing tier VIII early evening in a three man was the epitome of frustration as you got into tier X matches like 9 out of 10 times.

21 hours ago, DirtyACE7 said:

special RNG for the bad players

Thats funny, given the fact that RNG itself is there to help the baddies in the first place.

So, in a sense, it is true. A player that always aims where he needs to hit is every only hampered by RNG, while aplayer that can't aim correctly is helped by RNG in some cases.

 

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17 hours ago, GehakteMolen said:

 i sometimes play a whole evening, and not a single game is a ``easy win``, if i dont pull (far) above my own weight we would have lost, even in platoon, and almost every game is a close win, yet the defeats are half the time total roflstomps...

(and this has been going on for months, my winratio (and those of some others i know) tanked hard since new mm, despite less arty bobs, sure grinding bad tanks also doesnt help, but the difference is remarkable (and ppl who use fake accounts and suchs seem to do even better as before...))

THIS. I agree with it 100%. Since the MM-fuckup- and the newest patch my recent winratio has hit rock bottom (52% in the past month) from 60,08%, my wn8  is slowly rising, every day +2-5, but almost every battle is a lose and/or very hard carry and wg doesn't get bothered with these bots anyway. I play every night for 2-3 hours (nowadays almost only t10) and the battle stats are like 3k wn8 (my recent-ish) but with 3/7, 2/9, 4/17, etc. So as @GehakteMolen stated above I have to concentrate very hard and carry which I could not do when at the end of the battle a full hp strv / grille appears, or any ht camps base and I'm standing there with 450hp. I did 7-9k dmg battles in m48, even in centurion ax or e50m, but its just not enough. Got 6 masteries on a lost game in the past week. And I could count these examples all day long.

As per these "bot" or "bad-old" players,

I tried to keep them in a database of some sorts and the outcome is this:

100-150 players

Average battle count: 27-34k

Average wn8 600-900

They are camping base very hard, moving; but in a certain pattern and then stop and being there at full battle time.

I'm sad because 2 patches ago when mm got "fixed" tier 8 was my favorite tier to play after a long time - again and they took it after 3 weeks :(

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4 hours ago, Vindi said:

THIS. I agree with it 100%. Since the MM-fuckup- and the newest patch my recent winratio has hit rock bottom (52% in the past month) from 60,08%, my wn8  is slowly rising, every day +2-5, but almost every battle is a lose and/or very hard carry and wg doesn't get bothered with these bots anyway. I play every night for 2-3 hours (nowadays almost only t10) and the battle stats are like 3k wn8 (my recent-ish) but with 3/7, 2/9, 4/17, etc. So as @GehakteMolen stated above I have to concentrate very hard and carry which I could not do when at the end of the battle a full hp strv / grille appears, or any ht camps base and I'm standing there with 450hp. I did 7-9k dmg battles in m48, even in centurion ax or e50m, but its just not enough. Got 6 masteries on a lost game in the past week. And I could count these examples all day long.

As per these "bot" or "bad-old" players,

I tried to keep them in a database of some sorts and the outcome is this:

100-150 players

Average battle count: 27-34k

Average wn8 600-900

They are camping base very hard, moving; but in a certain pattern and then stop and being there at full battle time.

I'm sad because 2 patches ago when mm got "fixed" tier 8 was my favorite tier to play after a long time - again and they took it after 3 weeks :(

Interesting. I've seen my winrate do same; I got to the magic '54%' overall, then along comes 9.20 and it goes into reverse - hard. Now, every night I'm struggling to attain high 40's WR. No matter what  I play, even when I should have carried, I rarely do anymore. I just cant figure it out in terms of 'what changed'. The only clue I have is that in early days of the new MM (9.18) I was cleaning up in tier 7 with the T71 and in tier 9 with the Lwt, but now the MM is far less kind - my T71 is hardly ever top tier now, whereas back in 9.18 is was almost all the time(!). 

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I remeber reading on TAP an interview with someone big in WG (cant remember who) who claimed that rng is not the same in every game you play: for example you can play a game where rng is +/- 10% instead of full 25%; the game later you could instead have a different spread and same would go for the others. All of this is rng determined, so rng is determined by rng.

Sorry I got it completly wrong here is the article I mentioned: https://thearmoredpatrol.com/2017/10/10/wot-minsk-cc-trip-qa/#more-58521

the part in question: However, please do not assume it is pure +/- 25% RNG, the RNG is based on a normal distribution system where we can tune the probability, where there is at the moment it is set to have 67% chance within the +/- 10% RNG, where the extreme number has a smaller chance to happen. This was implemented some time ago.

Edited by nabucodonsor

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I am joining in the tinfoil club here as well. Few months ago i hit the magical 3k wn8 / 60% recent (the goal i set for my self). I maintained it maybe for a week or two, and then it all went downhill. 

 

I am no unicum, but like @GehakteMolen mentioned, if I don't carry really hard, most likely i will not win. I rarely ever platoon, and when i platoon, i do it only with my brother (who is barely 50%, 1000wn8 player). The explanation with bots seams plausible. Is it really the truth.. well that is way into the tinfoil category. 

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On ‎02‎.‎11‎.‎2017 at 2:48 PM, Vindi said:

my recent winratio has hit rock bottom ... (nowadays almost only t10)

Isn't that logical?

Before the "improved" MM many battles were 6-8 tier X tanks. Nowadays (with grand battles and ranked pulling tier Xs out of the queue) tier X often are the promised 3-5-7.

But 3-5-7 is way more extreme. If you have two total bots in their tier Xs tahts much more of a problem than before. Additionally alot of the recent changes to tier X tanks made them even stronger and thus tier VIIIs often can't hold a candle against them.

So, tl;dr 3-5-7 creates way more swingy games and limits the influence of the single player pushing everyone (the good and the bad) more towards 50% winrate.

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Wtf people... A couple years ago this thread would have been downvoted to hell and laughed off of wotlabs.

Harden the fuck up. Get gud, son.

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On 11/1/2017 at 2:52 PM, GehakteMolen said:

Give good players the biggest morons as top tier

This one is also easy to do, since the the top 3 tanks can be switched most of the time effortless by the mm. MM weight and suchs are the same, so when the game is ``made`` and rdy to be launched, the mm can simply put the the bot top tier on the unicum side, this will either:

  • give the bot an extra win (he gets carried by the unicum)
  • the unicum a defeat (also good)

Since the effect can only apply if one side has a unicum and the other doesnt AND when the unicum is not top tier, it wont be that visible, the reason i think its still there is simple:

  • How many easy wins do unicums (playing on a unicum account!!) still get?

From beta till ``reworked mm`` it was: 25% if default win, 25% is default defeat and 50% can be won/lost, leading to 75% winratio as ceilling, unless using special platoons and suchs (2x HEAT-54 + E75, 3x IS6 etc) but nowadays? i sometimes play a whole evening, and not a single game is a ``easy win``, if i dont pull (far) above my own weight we would have lost, even in platoon, and almost every game is a close win, yet the defeats are half the time total roflstomps...

 

This. So much fucking this. THIS for fucking YEARS. Three to be exact.

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I would definitely remove RNG on PEN, fuck 420mm and rolls like 336 and 525. You can pen unpenable shots and bounce autopens. 

10% on DMG, and game is more solid in terms of performing.

 

MM is ok, most def better than before, problem is every increasing retarded player base. I'm not talking about yellowish/green players, i'm talking about teams full of reds like all sub50% and WN8 <1000. They just randomly move across the map, and usually best pen wins. 

 

But that's not WGs fault, maybe some game mode (like CW and shit) where those fuckers dont stand a chance and can't enter (PR or some shit barrier). 

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5 hours ago, canadiantrex said:

Wtf people... A couple years ago this thread would have been downvoted to hell and laughed off of wotlabs.

Harden the fuck up. Get gud, son.

The amount of ``easy wins`` seems non-exsist, i barely ever win a game nowadays where i do nothing, and if i died very early, i loose by default it seems, i also get basically no total stomps (in my favour) anymore, like NONE

All those people complaining about roflstomps and ``quick games``, well now, there now like 3 games:

  • Very slow, drawn out win
  • Very slow, drawn out defeat
  • Quick defeat

No quick wins, no 3 mins hard push games...

And how many unicum still play on unicum accounts? if WG would rig mm, they wont rig a blue reroller with purple recent, they will rig the +30k games played, +10k WG PR rating accounts, I know @CarbonWard still murders teams on hes own, but does he play on unicum accounts? or on greens who ``lend their account``?

FOr years, me playing wot was:

  • press battle
  • drive around, shoot people, do something
  • win a lot more as you loose

Nowadays, this simply doesnt work, so either everyone became magically much better (bots) or teams get ``rigged`'. Im not saying they use stupid stuff like different RNG, just simply a single line in the mm algorith where the mm compares the total PR of the top 3 tanks and puts the lowest ``top`` on the team with the best player, and this switching can only happen if both sides get the same tanks (so 2x heavy and a TD etc) to prevent teams beiing disbalanced.

This ``effect`` might happen thus only once every 3 games, but this is alrdy enough to steer the results (and IF WG does, im 100% sure it only happens on tier 10, not tier 9, since tier 9 retards seem to be equal bad on both teams, always)

ps: perhaps this rigging is going on for years and years, however due to arty and old mm this effect was never really visible, but who else doesnt KNOW that the following rule aplies 80% of the time:

The first to die, is a scout or tier 10 tank

(and thats been true for years and years, from both teams, having a game where the 4 tier 10 tanks are dead first is not strange...)

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My WR has suffered as well but I think it has more to do with me mostly grinding tanks and playing tier8 more thus increasing my average tier / bad tanks quite a lot. I have almost completely quit playing tier6 mediums that were fun go to tanks when failing elsewhere because they have crap pen and everybody has a T-34/85M or O-I that are completely OP for the tier. However I feel that a lot of people are clueless still in tier9 and tier10 vehicles.. that may be confirmation bias because top tiers are so much more important in the 3/5/7 MM than before.

Perhaps this WR drop is partly due to the game having more and more idiot proof tanks that you really don´t want own yourself because they feel stupid. Also arty has changed massively during this time period... maybe there is something to that too? No more one-shots and immediate new games where you have a new chance to play better but more protracted hiding from accurate, high-rof, massive spalsh arty that stuns you anyway thus making doing damage and moving to get to shooting positions slower overall and increasing average game lenght?

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54 minutes ago, GehakteMolen said:

 

I think it is a side effect of platooning, and nothing else... My WR has been going up and up lately (62%+) when soloing, but when I platoon with equally skilled players... we barely scratch 55%.

I win about 45% of my battles if I die too early and do less than 1k dmg, and in about 15% of my games I have to chase damage because we are winning too hard.

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7 hours ago, Treeburst said:

This. So much fucking this. THIS for fucking YEARS. Three to be exact.

But it's map design more than mm manipulation by Occam's razor

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1 hour ago, CraBeatOff said:

But it's map design more than mm manipulation by Occam's razor

Well, its also possible the overall changes have slowly pushed away the ability to win a lot, and the arty + mm + tier 10 light tanks changes are the final nails in the coffin.

On tier 10 many tanks are pure rock-paper-scissor now, good vs certain opponent / in certain situations, and awefull in certain opponent / in certain situations.

``All-rounders``, like an E5 of 113 get butcherd by autoloaders / arty, and are not so good in shot trading games on ensk vs TDs, TDs are however awefull on any map and in any situation where you need flexibility (so 80% of the time) mediums simply lack the power to beat a maus, nor the armor / hp to fight of autoloader pussy`s, and autoloaders (the real scourge of wot atm) are half the time ALSO useless...

In the past, an IS7 was never good, but also never bad, now, an IS7 is either an unkillable steamroller, or a POS waiting to get killed, pure depending on the map / team set up / deployment.

ps: most extreme example ofc arty, arty depends 90% on map and 10% on skill, GG

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Confirmation bias out the ass for days in this thread.

It's map design, purples unwilling to adapt, and the rabid platoon v platoon matchmaking.

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On 11/3/2017 at 7:47 AM, nabucodonsor said:

I remeber reading on TAP an interview with someone big in WG (cant remember who) who claimed that rng is not the same in every game you play: for example you can play a game where rng is +/- 10% instead of full 25%; the game later you could instead have a different spread and same would go for the others. All of this is rng determined, so rng is determined by rng.

Sorry I got it completly wrong here is the article I mentioned: https://thearmoredpatrol.com/2017/10/10/wot-minsk-cc-trip-qa/#more-58521

the part in question: However, please do not assume it is pure +/- 25% RNG, the RNG is based on a normal distribution system where we can tune the probability, where there is at the moment it is set to have 67% chance within the +/- 10% RNG, where the extreme number has a smaller chance to happen. This was implemented some time ago.

And well discussed here. They moved from 1.3 sigma to a more reliable 2 and then. They made a further adjustment, but its not tinfoil bullshit, its just probability distributions.

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I need to buy stock in Reynolds Wrap with all the theories and half-baked notions flying around this thread...

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34 minutes ago, canadiantrex said:

Confirmation bias out the ass for days in this thread.

It's map design, purples unwilling to adapt, and the rabid platoon v platoon matchmaking.

Well, the bots got really tested (on live server i think, unless wot-news also lists games played from sandbox / test server to its log...) so who knows what it was for

ps: there where 4 test vehicle, panzer III, IV, M4 and T34, each of them had more games played as IS3, so no way this where normal tanks played by humans (they where also named Pz.Kpfw. SPECIAL or so)

 

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What is going on? Guys bring some proof to what you are saying you make it look like the Illuminati are running WG. 

 

 

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I kind of expected a bunch of people to lose their minds when I read those patch notes on the main site a while back. https://worldoftanks.eu/en/news/general-news/920-1-matchmaker-improvements/ By the wording it sounds exactly like WG made platoons less likely to get top tier to prevent better players from dominating games, and very strongly suggested they made other manipulative tweaks to the new MM when they installed it. And then for all the tinfoil hatting that goes in in this game, no one made a peep about it. Which confirms what I've long suspected, which is that WG can manipulate things a little bit as long as it goes over the math-inept heads of their player base.

 

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