kaneaaa

Is it really true that your win rate goes down in 5X events?

33 posts in this topic

Just wondering, people say this happens, but it makes non sense to me. Is it a myth or is it true?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People tend to play more on the weekends, both for kiddos and adults. So the number of people playing also increases the chances of very random setups, teams, lemming trains, suicide-scouts and the likes.

 

Basically, on these type of weekends people get really frustrated by all the factors mentioned and have a harder time making proper choices because they get tilted.

 

I talk from experience of course~ 
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the thing with x5 events, is that it brings out a lot of players who only play during the x5 events after they get an email from WG telling them about the event. So x5 events or holidays bring out a lot of players who, at worst don't know the game at all since they only play a few times a year, or at best are out of the meta. So this is the biggest reason why people say that x5 and x3 events or weekends are bad for win rate because you can get these players on your team that are worse than the average player who is learning the game without taking long breaks and forgetting everything. For me personally, I didn't have any problems, I actually 3-marked 2 tier 9s on Friday and Saturday during the Veteran's day x5 event, and I haven't ever 3-marked something higher than tier 8 before then. So some games you might see a player or two doing some dumb things, but you just get whatever use you can out of them. If they are yoloing, you can hopefully get vision info, or punish their players who are out of position that are trying to shoot them. The problem is when your team is made up of these kind of players, and the enemy team is not. In my experience, you just play the same as normal, watching your map for your team's choices and deployment, and play accordingly. You have people making dumb choices all the time when it's not x5 though, so you just kind of expect it more-so than usual. 

TLDR; There's more poor players during x5s because of inexperienced players, or players who have grown inexperienced because of long breaks since they only play during these events.

Edited by TheChang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Star_Dust said:

People tend to play more on the weekends, both for kiddos and adults. So the number of people playing also increases the chances of very random setups, teams, lemming trains, suicide-scouts and the likes.

 

Basically, on these type of weekends people get really frustrated by all the factors mentioned and have a harder time making proper choices because they get tilted.

 

I talk from experience of course~ 
 

Im sure I had to struggle a lot more for wins in the 5x, everything felt like an uphill struggle and lots of top tier heavies sitting at the back of the map doing nothing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, kaneaaa said:

Im sure I had to struggle a lot more for wins in the 5x, everything felt like an uphill struggle and lots of top tier heavies sitting at the back of the map doing nothing

Just remember that it all evens out.  Chances are that at least 50% of the time, your opponents felt the same way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Tanager said:

Just remember that it all evens out.  Chances are that at least 50% of the time, your opponents felt the same way.

So its not true, then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It would be true if they were distributed evenly. Which they're not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think x3/5 really impacts overall winrate at all. But it can seriously impact session winrate for better or worse. ie some sessions I struggle with retarded teams, other times it works in my favor and I enjoy really nice Winrate/WN8 sessions. I'd expect the swings to be less wild the more skilled you are but for average pubbies that aren't particularly good at carrying weak teams they can be pretty savage at times.

FWIW I did ok statwise this weekend, I have definitely had some seriously bad ones in the past though, like 40% winrate for the entire weekend bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not good enough to play 1 v 29 in a random free for all, so I tend to do poorly when the games are chaotic and unpredictable. Games are more chaotic and unpredictable on 5x weekends, so I tend to do poorly. Yes, the individual players are worse so in theory whatever small edge I have should be magnified, but it doesn't tend to work because I'm getting randomly shot in the back by some suicide scout who failed to suicide because my team's off taking a bath in the river, or looking at all the pretty trees and I lack the ability to deal with the randomness of it all. I tend to be able to do the micro things well enough (aiming, angling, getting to decent spots) but when everything is going crazy around me that's not enough. So for me, usually, my WR goes down and my frustration level goes up. However, on Saturday I was ignoring the 5x weekend and spamming my KV220 to grind out 12 wins, and that took all of 14 games. Playing a grossly OP seal clubbing machine works even better than normal when nobody on either team knows how to kill it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think one of the keys to doing better than usual during these x5 and x3 or just on weekends in general is to platoon, preferably with at least decent players. I platooned this weekend and managed around a 65% win rate for Saturday and Sunday combined, although at one point we were winning something like 90% and then we got a stream of absolute shit eating teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had an all tier 10 game during the 5x where 12 of my 14 teammates had a 48% or lower overall win rate. Highlight was 30k games for 44%. I'd swear that battle sapped some of my will to live. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, DirtyACE7 said:

I think one of the keys to doing better than usual during these x5 and x3 or just on weekends in general is to platoon, preferably with at least decent players. I platooned this weekend and managed around a 65% win rate for Saturday and Sunday combined, although at one point we were winning something like 90% and then we got a stream of absolute shit eating teams.

Where do we do that now? Used to be the wotlabs chat channel in the client, but that's been empty.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Darvek said:

Where do we do that now? Used to be the wotlabs chat channel in the client, but that's been empty.

 

Join a clan

Build a friends list of competent players.

It's not rocket science. I rarely platoon because personal circumstances require me going AFK between pretty much every battle, but if I wanted to it wouldn't be hard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Server win rates stay more or less the same.

As for individual win rates, probably.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Darvek said:

Where do we do that now? Used to be the wotlabs chat channel in the client, but that's been empty.

1

Some still keep the torch alive...

Though it's been a while since I've seen anyone in it...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

X5 events may bring more stupid wins and fails. By that I understand battles in which a winning team is not better but slightly less dumb. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Darvek said:

Where do we do that now? Used to be the wotlabs chat channel in the client, but that's been empty.

 

I usually platoon with my clan mates. Have never used the Wotlabs channel though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Win rate may go down and may go up. Just expect abnormalities since the meta changes completely when bad players try hard. It has been hard to predict the teams this weekend. 

4 hours ago, MacusFlash said:

X5 events may bring more stupid wins and fails. By that I understand battles in which a winning team is not better but slightly less dumb. 

Ehh I had 2 games won by beach push on overlord and 1 won on lakeville encounter by pushing valley. I died trying to do the right thing and the beach/valley guys somehow managed to win (or the enemy team somehow managed to win)

10 hours ago, Cronk said:

I don't think x3/5 really impacts overall winrate at all. But it can seriously impact session winrate for better or worse. ie some sessions I struggle with retarded teams, other times it works in my favor and I enjoy really nice Winrate/WN8 sessions. I'd expect the swings to be less wild the more skilled you are but for average pubbies that aren't particularly good at carrying weak teams they can be pretty savage at times.

FWIW I did ok statwise this weekend, I have definitely had some seriously bad ones in the past though, like 40% winrate for the entire weekend bad.

First day of the weekend wasn't horrible for my WR but really bad for DPG since the games were super one sided. A win when you steamroll the enemy is not good for trying to 3 mark a heavy. For the 2nd game I just 5xed what I exp and played the amx 13 57 exclusively. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK, what actually happens is that an event like this will drive everyone's WR towards 50% (lets pretend that draws are not a thing).  In any closed system with a binary outcome, as you increase sample size and decrease weighting factors, you will drive the likelihood of single event outcomes towards the mean value.  So, If you are a unicum with a 60+% WR then you are going to have a lot more bads randomly logging on at odd times in odd tanks that you will have either defeat or carry.  This essentially decreases your weighting factor on the SD of individual matches and drives outcomes towards the middle of the bell curve.

In order for somebody to have a 60% WR, they need to be balanced by 10 people with 49% WR donating wins (assuming they all play the same number of games).  AKA, the sea of shitters is already pretty close to the mean, so they don't realize the imperceptible increase to their WR as readily as the lone unicum will notice his large deviation from mean being reduced.   

Platoon moar and profit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think today there is a lot worse teams than last weekend for that matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hardly play on weekends or 5x events. Publics are just pure cancer. It is just no fun for me to play, especially with tanks which are team depended. For example. I tried to 5 time my Type 4. Before I even reached my destination and saw the first enemy we where already 5 tanks down. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, hall0 said:

For example. I tried to 5 time my Type 4.

That's your problem right there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I get the exact same brain aneurysm from regular plebs as x5 extravaganza lick your keyboard for extra food plebs so to me it really doesn't matter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, TohtoriP said:

I think today there is a lot worse teams than last weekend for that matter.

I have a theory every time there is a big event that makes inactive players grind or bad players to try hard (and fail) the meta will change. Sometimes those changes will stick, sometimes they are temporary but none end just after the weekend. People won't adjust as fast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gameplay experience is different. Pubbies tend to play more - which either means they play at all or it means they start to grind when usually they only play 2-3 games.

Both impacts the game in the sense that it increases irrational behavior.

Unicums are mostly unicums because they can correctly predict the gameflow and use this information to gain an advantage over both the enemy and the teammate. The more irrational those people get, the harder to predict, the less the influence a single player can have.

So, indeed, during special events (or just plain holiday/weekends) the winrate of all players trends more towards the average and for very good players that means it tanks (on average).

But the real problem is not this (usually the sample of games on a weekend is too low anyways to notice much) but the fact that being unable to influence the game in the usual and expected manner is not fun. So unicums either are sensible and quit/deal with it or they go on tilt. And then it's a self fulfilling prophecy because being on tilt has never helped winning more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.