FlorbFnarb

Tracking team WN8 over a series of matches

29 posts in this topic

I've become kinda curious about streaks and such lately, what with having some disastrous evenings and some evenings where it seemed like every pitch was lobbed across the plate for me to knock out of the park.  I loaded up Aslain's Modpack, fired up XVM stats, set my display to show a full series of stats for each player, including WN8, and I started taking screenshots during countdown each match.  I have a feature turned on that displays the total WN8 for each team along with a predicted win chance.

So I built a spreadsheet that will find the mean WN8 of your teammates - not including yourself, just your 14 teammates - and the mean WN8 of your 15 opponents, and calculates the variance between the two, expressed as a percentage of the opponent team's mean WN8.  Then it displays some statistics based on the series of match data you want, as many matches as you like up to some number over a thousand, I forget exactly: the number and percentage of "Undermatches" where your teammates' mean WN8 is lower than your opponents', the number and percentage of "Overmatches" where your teammates' mean WN8 is higher than your opponents', and the mean variance over the series of matches.

I've found that even when you think things are streaky, they not only settle down to the mean in the long run, it usually doesn't even take all that long.  So far I've checked a series of 14 matches that felt awfully streaky at the time, but the end result is that I had exactly 7 Overmatches and 7 Undermatches, with something like only a 1% mean variance overall.

So I figured providing an easy way for people to actually calculate whether they were in the middle of a streak of bad or good luck might be enlightening to people and might cure a few tinfoil types of their delusions, but it didn't get a particularly good reception on reddit; some people thought it would just make people focus on other people's skill.

If anybody wants to take a look, here's the link to the spreadsheet on Google Sheets:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NzPIrVJoYSZIDQ73YsB9g18F1Vz07N3T7XN6roAPCvM/edit?usp=sharing

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lol

As it stands, some of these people already use XVM and insist they're getting screwed; I figured an easy-to-use tool to show them they aren't getting screwed could be useful.

Also, I just felt like tinkering around with a spreadsheet.

How does XVM kill competition, though?

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2 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

How does XVM kill competition, though?

it encourages extremely cancerous game play. And as Fulcrous stated, making the good players quit because of this.

getting insane Arty focus because your a good player? getting yolo'd because your a good player? 99% of it is done/caused by xvm because new and shit players alike are lead to believe that doing these things with killing the best players on the enemy team in mind will give them a better chance of winning (pro tip: it doesn't).

and not even just the focus of blues and purples, other forms of toxic game play such as people drowning or purposely getting themselves killed at the start of a match because "xvm says i only have a 30% chance of winning"  "xvm shows that MM is rigged" ect. ect.

dont believe me?

both players sent me PM's along the lines of "get fucked stat padder" after game despite the fact that they both threw away their tanks at the start and **Lost** the match.

 

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2 hours ago, Fulcrous said:

Making all the good players quit.

 

16 minutes ago, Deus__Ex__Machina said:

it encourages extremely cancerous game play. And as Fulcrous stated, making the good players quit because of this.

getting insane Arty focus because your a good player? getting yolo'd because your a good player? 99% of it is done/caused by xvm because new and shit players alike are lead to believe that doing these things with killing the best players on the enemy team in mind will give them a better chance of winning (pro tip: it doesn't).

and not even just the focus of blues and purples, other forms of toxic game play such as people drowning or purposely getting themselves killed at the start of a match because "xvm says i only have a 30% chance of winning"  "xvm shows that MM is rigged" ect. ect.

dont believe me?

both players sent me PM's along the lines of "get fucked stat padder" after game despite the fact that they both threw away their tanks at the start and **Lost** the match.

 

Sure, that sort of thing happens, but how often?  I've gotten focused by arty sometimes, but I can't honestly tell if it's because of a 54% WR or because I just happened to be at the important terrain and visible.

I'm sure it happens to purples more often, but it could only be so often; only so many people actually use XVM at all.

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1 hour ago, FlorbFnarb said:

 

Sure, that sort of thing happens, but how often?  I've gotten focused by arty sometimes, but I can't honestly tell if it's because of a 54% WR or because I just happened to be at the important terrain and visible.

I'm sure it happens to purples more often, but it could only be so often; only so many people actually use XVM at all.

It's one of those things you dont know how bad it gets until you actually hit that point. Every game I played that led me to basically quit has resulted in some form of dumpy retard yolo/arty focus (despite timing shots) every single match.

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1 hour ago, FlorbFnarb said:

 

Sure, that sort of thing happens, but how often?  I've gotten focused by arty sometimes, but I can't honestly tell if it's because of a 54% WR or because I just happened to be at the important terrain and visible.

I'm sure it happens to purples more often, but it could only be so often; only so many people actually use XVM at all.

if you were to run xvm for the sake of seeing who runs xvm on both your team and the enemy, im willing to bet its at least 10-15 of the 30 players total. so yes alot of people use it.

as for how often? much more than you'd like to think, id say out of 20 battles a day at least 6-8 games either hard arty focus or a yolo will happen.

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5 hours ago, Deus__Ex__Machina said:

if you were to run xvm for the sake of seeing who runs xvm on both your team and the enemy, im willing to bet its at least 10-15 of the 30 players total. so yes alot of people use it.

as for how often? much more than you'd like to think, id say out of 20 battles a day at least 6-8 games either hard arty focus or a yolo will happen.

XVM can show who runs XVM?

I can't imagine it's 33-50% of the players in the game running XVM.

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34 minutes ago, FlorbFnarb said:

XVM can show who runs XVM?

I can't imagine it's 33-50% of the players in the game running XVM.

IIRC yes, it may show you another xvm users. 

I've seen similar experiment by HeroOfJustice (EU) with exactly the same result - teams are balanced. 

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On ASIA less than 25% of players would run that's an approximation based on my observances but it is rare to see more than 5 or 6 players in a game running stats. It's higher in tens and at peak but the vast majority of ASIA pubbies don't run it.

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11 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

 

Sure, that sort of thing happens, but how often?  I've gotten focused by arty sometimes, but I can't honestly tell if it's because of a 54% WR or because I just happened to be at the important terrain and visible.

I'm sure it happens to purples more often, but it could only be so often; only so many people actually use XVM at all.

It happens quite frequently.  I don't run xvm but it say 4 or every 10 battles I'd get focused and I'm fucking useless at this game! I'd notice it in certian games that I'm get shit on constantly and after the game I'd check the stats. Low and behold I'd be the "best player" on the team statistically. 

 

I was tooning with Vindi a few weeks ago in tier 8's, we ended up in a tier 10 game. We were in the centre of that ice map humping the ridge, popping off shots at the enemy crossing. 

 

The IS7 on our team drive's  right up over the ridge and sits there trying to hit targets. The 3 arty on the enemy team completely ignored him and spent the entire time shitting on our tier 8 platoon behind the IS7 (Vindi is purple or very close to purple).

 

So a quick stats check afterwards showed the IS7 was a 47%'er... I can totally see why better players than me would hate this game and can in particular xvm.  It's fucking cancer!

 

The best decision I ever made in this game was to stop using it.

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13 hours ago, Deus__Ex__Machina said:

it encourages extremely cancerous game play. And as Fulcrous stated, making the good players quit because of this.

getting insane Arty focus because your a good player? getting yolo'd because your a good player? 99% of it is done/caused by xvm because new and shit players alike are lead to believe that doing these things with killing the best players on the enemy team in mind will give them a better chance of winning (pro tip: it doesn't).

and not even just the focus of blues and purples, other forms of toxic game play such as people drowning or purposely getting themselves killed at the start of a match because "xvm says i only have a 30% chance of winning"  "xvm shows that MM is rigged" ect. ect.

dont believe me?

both players sent me PM's along the lines of "get fucked stat padder" after game despite the fact that they both threw away their tanks at the start and **Lost** the match.

 

BTW 430U totally not OP

Your own arty was very helpful kappa

PZ7 camping like bitch 

Enemy arty doing 200 dmg 10% of your HP and not caring about his teammates

Retards who yolo good player

One clip that shows all the worst things about this game GG

 

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I've yet to have it happen to me at that level, but ASIA server is fairly chill when it comes to such toxic play seen there.

NA server probably have more arseholes that care far too much about STETS than ASIA. 

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Even I've been focused hard back in the day and I think we can all agree that I'm nothing special on this site. When you sat in an IS-3 during a tier 10 match back in 2015, where the distribution was something like 8/5/3 from T10 and down with about 5 pixels visible to arty and they still wasted shells trying to triple nuke you for 50 splash damage, it's time to take a break.

XVM wouldn't be a problem if it wasn't for the fact that WG heavily marketed towards and severely exploited traditional non-gamers and kept pushing the game in said direction. Their classic example was a "daddy" (aka adult male in his 30s) coming home from a day of work for some casual pew-pew but in reality they did just as much to attract a playerbase of young tweens and teens (I'd peg it at about age 10-15) who similarly didn't game much.

Those two groups are prime butthurt material. One because they lack the time and want to maximize their fun while throwing money at the game and the other to get sucked into the grind and begging for dat credit card from their parents. Tinfoilhattery, general butthurt and even proper jealousy is what WG purposefully fostered in their playerbase, resulting in a hilariously toxic community. I personally miss the daily CYKA CHEATER HEAT MONEYBAGS PIDAR HACKER accusations but I certainly see why others do not.

What should have been a tool for basic information and modding structure for dedicated players with some sanity left, eventually turned into a vast cathedral of piss and shit. Sad!

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>I play on my own account

>Get neutered by skyfaggots with xvm or yoloed by retards

>play low WN8 account

>mfw 80%+ win rate because they just flat out refuse to shoot me

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tfw your xvm camo is so damn stronk that when you go hulldown in a Conq in Westfield none of the enemy team's 3 arta bothers with you :trump:
Seriously, my mate complains that the 277 is unplayable for him with like 2.2k DPG. We're pretty much of equal skill and I pull off 2.7 because I don't have 2k WN8. Even when he's playing semi-conservatively, he gets focused down by skypigs from the millisecond he's spotted whereas I pretty get away scot free for mistakes. And this is Asia we're talking about, where 95% of people barring the occasional Viet and Aussie tryhard are the filthiest possible casuals. 

I don't mind if XVM exists but it has to go from the game. And I'm speaking as a benefactor of XVM not even a victim

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5 hours ago, Fulcrous said:

Had literally just gone into position. Then this occurs.

https://giant.gfycat.com/LiveAncientFeline.webm

2 more tanks yolo'd but it was too long for gfycat. I would have understood if they pushed as a unit buy 1 by 1 :serb:
Needless to say, we won.

Eh.  That doesn't have to be XVM.  Your clan tags are enough to get people to prioritize you.

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On 10/10/2018 at 3:53 PM, Kolni said:

dont use xvm, dont support the biggest cancer that ever happened to the game and killed the competitive playerbase

regardless for what use

The competitive playerbase died to a combination of CW fuckups, dropped tournament support, overarching corridor map design, new line power creep, pervasiveness of artillery, and massive module overhauls at every level that disconnected nearly every tank from its past performance.  XVM is not what killed the competitive playerbase.  If anything, the kind of harassment you or anyone else perceives is being received from XVM is a consequence of the kinds of players that are left after all of the changes above washed out those disgruntled enough by the game's direction over the past two to three years to bail, and of those changes themselves.  Removing XVM will not restore any kind of competitive atmosphere. nor will any whinging about how other players are using it, as you should know well enough that those are not the caliber of player to ever feel shame for their manner of play, and it will do nothing to resolve the current mechanics and history of changes that has eviscerated the top end community and narrative.  If you believe XVM is the issue to take with the game right now, you have completely lost sight of the problems and accepted a far more mediocre vision of the game whose competitive community, if it did exist, would be completely irrelevant.

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