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BocajSretep

Verified Tanker [NA]
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Posts posted by BocajSretep

  1. The XVM win chance prediction algorithm seems to be something that is still mysterious to a large number of players, so I thought it would be good if I shed some light on it. Plus, I'd like to get some discussion started on how to improve it.
     
    I've broken it down into multiple formulas.
     
     
    1. Win Chance formula
     
    Chance_Eqn.png
     
    This formula calculates the win chance of your team from the calculated weight of each team. The win chance cannot be higher than 95% or lower than 5%.
     
     
    2. Team Weight formula
     
    Team_Eqn.png
     
    Here we can see that the Team weight is just the summed weight of each individual player on the team. Nothing very interesting here.
     
     
    3. Player Weight formula
     
    Player_Eqn.png
     
    Now we are getting closer to the meat of the win rate prediction calculation. The thing to note in this formula is that weight of the tier is either 1, 0, or -1. Therefore, the tier of the tank a player is driving can add or remove 25% of the weight.
     
     
    4. XWN Weight Formula
     
    XWNEqn.png
     
    The A stands for account stats. As you can see, the average tier of tanks played on the account plays a role in this calculation, but it's rather small and really doesn't shift things more and 15% either way unless a tanker is sealclubbing or has sealclubbed for a large number of battles.
     
    The xwn stat is a number between 0 and 100 that is calculated by this formula
     
    XWNCalculation.png
     
    I didn't really look into how this formula works, so I have no idea if it's good or bad. However, this is how XVM calculates it if you wanted to know.
     
     
    5. Win Rate Weight formula

     

    WREqn.png

    Nothing really too interesting to say about this one other than if a tanker's account win rate is above 48.5% the weight will be greater than 1, and it will be less than 1 if below.
     
     
    6. Battles Weight formula

     

    Battles_Eqn.png
     
    The x in the conditional should be A_{battles}. Basically the more battles a tanker has played, the closer to 1 this weight will be.
     
     
    7. Tier Weight formula

     

    Tier_Eqn.png
     
    This formula leads to some weird things for tanks that have different match making. Light tanks end up being weighted the same as tanks that are a tier higher. Also, the sealclubbing Pz. B2 ends up being weighted like a tier 3 tank rather than a tier 4.
     
     
    Well, that's how XVM predicts win chance. I'm really interested to see what the mathematicians of WoTLabs think about it.
     
    I think that the weakest part is the tier weight. I have some ideas about how to improve this with per tank weighting, but I have to set up a testing method first. So, let me ask a question. How would you test the validity of a win rate prediction algorithm? My thought is to compile about 1000 random replays, and retrieve all the necessary data to do the predictions. Then, compare the average prediction to the real win rate average as well as comparing the error rates. I'll be interested to hear your comments.

  2. I was also working on this. I made a userscript for myself that makes the forums look like this:

    Untitled.png

     

    It's at https://greasyfork.org/en/scripts/6504-make-wotlabs-tanker-stats-sexier

     

    And here is my HTML + CSS

    HTML

    <div class="sig">
        <div class="recent-wr sig-left">
            <div class="label">RECENT WR</div>
            <div class="stat"></div>
        </div>
        <div class="wr sig-right">
            <div class="label">OVERALL</div>
            <div class="stat"></div>
        </div>
        <div class="recent-wn sig-left">
            <div class="label">RECENT WN8</div>
            <div class="stat"></div>
        </div>
        <div class="wn sig-right">
            <div class="label">OVERALL</div>
            <div class="stat"></div>
        </div>
    </div>

    CSS

    .sig {
      display: inline-flex;
      flex-wrap: wrap;
      width: 110px;
      height: 76px;
      margin-top: 10px;
      font-size: 8px;
      color: white;
      font-weight: bold;
      pointer-events:none;
      -moz-user-select: none;
      -webkit-user-select: none;
      -ms-user-select: none;
      border: 1px solid #ccc;
      box-shadow: 0px 0px 2px 0px rgba(10, 10, 10, 0.35);
    }
    .sig .stat{font-size: 18px;}
    .sig-right {width: 55%;}
    .sig-left {width: 45%;}
    

  3. I miss the visual flair the sigs on the side had. I thought they added a lot to the look of the forums. So, I made a userscript to bring back some of that without bogging down the servers with extra requests. it doesn't have all the information that's in the sigs, but it's lightweight and looks pretty.

     

    Here is what it look:

    stats.png

     

    And here is where you can get it:

    http://greasyfork.org/en/scripts/6504-make-wotlabs-tanker-stats-sexier

  4. So, I've been looking into the XVM win rating algorithm. So many things about it just seem wrong to me. For one, it takes the amount of battles played on the account into consideration. Everyone laughs at wargaming for doing the same thing, but I guess no one really looked into the how predicted win rates were calculated in xvm. Also, a tier 8 light is being weighted the same as a tier 9 heavy.

     

    I'm going to be making a post in the mathematics section about it pretty soon. I'm new to LaTeX, so it's taking a bit to get that stuff together.

  5. Yay, something on the forum I can contribute to.

     

    High CPI(DPI) is very bad for tracking. It introduces noise to the mouse sensor, and it causes variable acceleration of the sensor dependent on speed. Don't give in to marketing hype. Find the native resolution of your mouse sensor and use that as your CPI. You will enjoy much better mouse performance.

     

     

    Citation needed.

     

    To avoid this being asked of me, here it is from a senior engineer at logitech.

     

     

     

    Counter Strike has always been a game where the pros prefer low sensitivity because fine aiming is more important than fast movement. This is because if you aim better, your opponents will go down faster. Headshots(weakpoints) are key.

     

    However, in Quake players preferred higher sensitivity because fast movement is more important than fine aiming. This is because BFG pwns no matter how bad your aim is.

     

    Ask yourself which game has more in common, aimingwise, with WoT. Now, make your mouse sensitivity decision from that answer.

  6. First, I would like to thank you for being a big part of making me a better player. I remember having a 48% WRand sub 500WN6 when I was just over 1000 games played. Your advice isn't falling on dead ears. Some pubbies do listen.

     

    So, I was reading this thread:

     

    And the OP said this on the second page.

     

     

    If you balanced this game for the unicums, then it would break.

     

    That just seems blatently wrong. If you balance tanks for idiots, you'll end up with a boring game with little room for skill or improvement, or you'll have tanks that become overpowered in the hands of skilled players. The latter scenario just means padders will use those tanks like they use the 62A. I would think it would be best to balance both the skill ceiling as well as the floor. In other words, the game needs to be accessible yet also rewarding as your individual skill increases.

     

    With that Idea in mind, the low tiers should be the tanks that are accessible(possibly even nerfing the skill ceiling to prevent pedo tankers). Therefore, allowing new players to compete on an even playing ground and learn the basic mechanics of shooting and spotting. Whereas, the middle to high tiers should progressively allow skill to be the largest factor in how effective any tank is.

     

    That's just my initial thoughts, and it could be flawed. I'm wondering what your opinion is.

  7. Hello everyone,

     

    I wrote a quick userscript to add WoTLabs signature images to the official forums. It only works for NA currently, but I'll add support for other regions later if there is any desire for it.

     

    No need to copypaste names, now you can measure e-peens and sort out if someone is bad or just stupid with ease.

     

    I recommend greasemonkey on Firefox and tampermonkey on Chrome.

     

    Without further ado, here is the script

    // ==UserScript==
    // @name        Statify Official WoT Forums
    // @namespace   BocajSretep
    // @description Adds WoTLabs stats to the official forums
    // @include     http://forum.worldoftanks.com/*
    // @version     1.1
    // @grant       none
    // ==/UserScript==
    (function statifyWotForums() {
        var poasts = document.querySelectorAll('.post_block'),
            fragment = document.createDocumentFragment(),
            listItem = document.createElement('li'),
            imgDiv = document.createElement('div'),
            statsSig = document.createElement('img'),
            cssRules = document.createElement('style'),
            playerName;
        
        cssRules.innerHTML = '.wotLabsStats{width: 107px; padding: 2px; margin-top: 5px; background: white; border: 1px solid grey; overflow-x: hidden; transition: width 500ms}.wotLabsStats:hover{width: 472px}';
        document.head.appendChild(cssRules);
        
        
        listItem.classList.add('desc');
        listItem.classList.add('stats');
        
        imgDiv.classList.add('wotLabsStats');
        
        imgDiv.appendChild(statsSig);
        listItem.appendChild(imgDiv);
        fragment.appendChild(listItem);
        
        for(var i = 0; i < poasts.length; ++i) {
            playerName = poasts[i].querySelector('.name').getAttribute('hovercard-id');
            
            statsSig.src = "http://wotlabs.net/sig/na/" + playerName + "/signature.png"
            
            poasts[i].querySelector('.basic_info').appendChild(fragment.cloneNode(true));
            
        }
    })();
    

    You can also find it on Greasy Fork: http://greasyfork.org/scripts/5363-statify-official-wot-forums

  8. I just can't stand people like SS. The anti bigot that is just a bigoted. He's a homophobe (well, technically dragaphobe) as well. 

     

    http://ftr.wot-news.com/2014/05/12/kubinka-museum-situation-followup/#comment-148406

     

    Some excerpts:

     

    “If a freedom of speech includes drag queen freak show like in recent Eurovision song contest, then please i`d like some of Russian freedom of speech, ty, much better.”

     

    [sS]

    "I actually complete agree. Freedom of speech is one thing, disgusting freakshow beyond all boundaries is quite another."

    ". . .showing vile deviant freaks on TV and even passing it on as something normal, that is well beyond what should in my opinion be regulated."

  9. Hello, I heard about the WoTLabs through the Wot subreddit. The information on this site has been invaluable to my improvent in the game. I just earned my first Pool's medal tonight, and I would like to thank all the unicums that post on this forum for the wealth of knowledge I have been able to consume. Special thanks to Garbad for his module and skill guides. I was using binocs or vents instead of optics on my mediums, and that change has brought major improvements to my gameplay.

     

    I look forward to improving my own skills, and with the help of this community, maybe I'll be purple one day. Thanks again.

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