Snoregasm2

I had an 80% one day, and a 10% the next. I don't understand. 

That’s the problem with averages: nothing is average until you reach some big numbers. I’ve got several wild anomalies WR wise in my garage with 50-200 games in them. I’ve got a 69% WR in the tier 7 Scorpion after 159 games. I’m worth 54-56% in it.

Win rate is mostly luck, in small sample sizes. Even as a baddy that 89% streak would have been well over 60. It's just that those few extra battles you then win (or don't lose in a bad streak) translate to win rate over many battles when luck evens out. At that moment win rate is mostly skill. But luck does continue to play a roll for the error margin (something like 2.5% after 1k battles if I recall correctly - but that's from memory, I didn't calculate that myself).

These are the reasons that pubbies have so much problems with the win rate concept. It's something long term. But in the daily experience, all they see is mostly luck based.