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bjshnog

Solopub Challenge ft. bjshnog

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Trying to succeed by making unnecessarily large goals is counter productive. You can achieve your goals by making smart small steps.

 

Start off trying to reach a 1 or 2 percent higher recent W/R than what you're currently at. 67% is a good goal for a super unicum but even so, doing it solo is difficult.

 

Don't set goals you can't reach, you're only going to fail and quit. Success reinforces success.

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Anyone who has communicated with me on this forum knows how ambitious I am. I'd rather set a ridiculously high but semi-realistic goal, and reach it in due course. It has worked very well before, and I'm sure I can pull it off again.

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Talk of being screwed by RNG from high level players is frustrating.  This forum is about denying stat-deniers, exactly the type of players that will complain about RNG dictating their performance.  These type of comments are read by a lot of players trying to get better.  Conveying an 'easy out' of RNG sets the wrong expectation and the wrong precedent.

 

Stop blaming getting one shot/RNG/weekends. You are the only constant.

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Stop blaming getting one shot/RNG/weekends. You are the only constant.

 

I am the only constant, but there are variables. Namely, day of the week, and my performance correlates heavily with day of the week. I don't eat, drink or spend my time any differently on the weekend, but I always do significantly worse than on weekdays, and when I play way past midnight (like today), I always see a sharp improvement at the end of the session, which represents pubbies falling back into their usual predictable zone.

 

That said, I always try to overcome it, but from experience, it just does not work while playing solo.

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I'm not going to aim for a number as lame as that.

 

However, I barely managed 53% over the last 24 hours, and it was stuck at 50% all day until the remnants of the Sunday/Monday midnight players disappeared (only about 10 battles out of 66). At that point, my WN8 also started increasing sharply for the day.

 

I expect to achieve a high win rate tomorrow.

 

 

I don't think you're being ambitious, I think you're being cocky. EXPECTING and WANTING a higher winrate for your 60-day is far from actually being good enough to MAKE and GET it. If you played terribly today, how do just assume you'll be playing amazingly tomorrow? I fail to see the logic. 

 

If you're not consistent to even make 60% solo, you will not make 67%.

 

Trying to succeed by making unnecessarily large goals is counter productive. You can achieve your goals by making smart small steps.

 

Start off trying to reach a 1 or 2 percent higher recent W/R than what you're currently at. 67% is a good goal for a super unicum but even so, doing it solo is difficult.

 

Don't set goals you can't reach, you're only going to fail and quit. Success reinforces success.

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I don't think you're being ambitious, I think you're being cocky. EXPECTING and WANTING a higher winrate for your 60-day is far from actually being good enough to MAKE and GET it. If you played terribly today, how do just assume you'll be playing amazingly tomorrow? I fail to see the logic. 

 

I didn't play terribly today though. I played exactly as well as I always (or recently) have, and the spike at the end of the session only backs that up.

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If you're not consistent to even make 60% solo, you will not make 67%.

 

I'll lay it out straight so there is no confusion:

  • My GOAL is 67%. This is what I will try for.
  • My EXPECTATION is about 65%.

 

I am confident that I can consistently reach 65% (if not on a weekend), but I will try to push that up to 67%. I am not expecting a 67% win rate to just jump on my lap.

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I didn't play terribly today though. I played exactly as well as I always (or recently) have, and the spike at the end of the session only backs that up.

Well the reason solopub wins less is that some teams you just can't carry

The reason to do a 100 game challenge is to demonstrate that you can achieve that win rate across a variety of conditions (weekdays, weekends), with all the teams that MM will throw at you, and to minimize the impact of RNG.

If you cherry pick times of day or days of the week to play, then you are artificially manipulating the challenge.

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Well the reason solopub wins less is that some teams you just can't carry

The reason to do a 100 game challenge is to demonstrate that you can achieve that win rate across a variety of conditions (weekdays, weekends), with all the teams that MM will throw at you, and to minimize the impact of RNG.

If you cherry pick times of day or days of the week to play, then you are artificially manipulating the challenge.

 

It's easy to do a 100-game challenge over 2 days, or possibly even 1 day. Who is to say those Garbad vs Kewei challenges weren't specifically done on weekdays so that those uncarryable teams weren't so prominent? I would expect the results to vary dramatically between those periods, but if they don't, I'd like to know why, and how to achieve it myself.

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I'm not cocky =`(

 

Was talking to BJ. Quoted your post because I liked it. :P

 

I'll lay it out straight so there is no confusion:

  • My GOAL is 67%. This is what I will try for.
  • My EXPECTATION is about 65%.

 

I am confident that I can consistently reach 65% (if not on a weekend), but I will try to push that up to 67%. I am not expecting a 67% win rate to just jump on my lap.

 

If not on a weekend, then you are inconsistent. If you modify the challenge, like what sr360 said, then it's not a challenge.

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It's easy to do a 100-game challenge over 2 days, or possibly even 1 day. Who is to say those Garbad vs Kewei challenges weren't specifically done on weekdays so that those uncarryable teams weren't so prominent? I would expect the results to vary dramatically between those periods, but if they don't, I'd like to know why, and how to achieve it myself.

Easy to do in 1 day? Achievable but not easy.

Nonetheless you acknowledge variance in teams between days of the week and times of the day, so if you are interested in demonstrating your solopub carry ability it needs to be demonstrated across a variety of situations, not just in the optimal setting.

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It's extremely difficult to do on weekends when MM fills one team with unicums and the other with tomatoes, simply due to the massive skill spread at tier 10. At least on the West server, that's what happens, and my win rate is pretty much at the mercy of MM. Same as on x5 events.

 

Today I managed pretty much 50%, whereas yesterday I managed 64%.

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It's extremely difficult to do on weekends when MM fills one team with unicums and the other with tomatoes, simply due to the massive skill spread at tier 10. At least on the West server, that's what happens, and my win rate is pretty much at the mercy of MM. Same as on x5 events.

Today I managed pretty much 50%, whereas yesterday I managed 64%.

That is the point of demonstrating a solopub challenge over 100 games. If you are 50% one day and 64 another, your solopub WR is somewhere in between.

Remember 67% WR solo is close to the best on the server. If you want to showcase that WR you should be able 2/3 of all the teams MM grants you.

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That is the point of demonstrating a solopub challenge over 100 games. If you are 50% one day and 64 another, your solopub WR is somewhere in between.

 

Those numbers are both weekend numbers though, and I was still getting retardedly stacked teams all day on the 64% day. When it isn't the weekend, I can (probably) consistently play over 64% without all this trouble.

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Those numbers are both weekend numbers though, and I was still getting retardedly stacked teams all day on the 64% day. When it isn't the weekend, I can (probably) consistently play over 64% without all this trouble.

If you have to put a qualifier, then that isn't your true solo WR.

The question is what is the purpose of the challenge? Is it to reach a number regardless of how to achieve it, or to actually demonstrate a level of play.

You seem to be missing the point. You need to achieve 67% consistently across a variety of days, teams and situations with a sufficiently large number of games in order to make the challenge valid.

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If you have to put a qualifier, then that isn't your true solo WR.

The question is what is the purpose of the challenge? Is it to reach a number regardless of how to achieve it, or to actually demonstrate a level of play.

You seem to be missing the point. You need to achieve 67% consistently across a variety of days, teams and situations with a sufficiently large number of games in order to make the challenge valid.

 

I get the point. It's just that I highly doubt others who have done supposedly "valid" challenges have evenly spread their battles throughout all 7 days of the week.

 

Hell, if I did manage to get my recent win rate to 67% playing completely solo, it would trend upwards on weekdays and downwards on weekends. There is no "consistently" in this scenario.

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Garbad has done a large number of challenges over a wide variety of situations. His appear to be valid. Kewei likewise.

Looking back at Crab's IS-6 challenge he played naturally over a number of days, so it is at least somewhat valid. I haven't looked hard at the validity of other challenges but if I noted a clustering of games I would question them as well.

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Reposted at Garbad's request:

 

I never attempted to rig solopub challenges by playing during certain times/servers/etc. All solopub challenges are played at the same time as I ordinarily play -- ~6-9 EST, all days, east server, no MM dodging (which I didn't even know about at the time). I also very rarely play more than 10 games in the same tank in the same day, so most challenges would take 2+ weeks. Some took months (the 2nd kv5 challenge took me like 5 months). I also announced the challenges before I started so it was impossible to "start" the challenge on a good run to pad stats -- many people start a challenge and if they do well, publish and if they don't, they don't. That isn't a challenge, its luck.

Solopub win rate challenge = no gimmicks, no tricks, nothing but winning regardless of circumstance. That's why 60-65% is a great performance, easily top 0.1% of the server and why 65%+ means top 5 players on the server. Its no joke, and almost everyone overestimates what they can actually do. The challenge of winning without tricks is intense.

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Reposted at Garbad's request:

 

I never attempted to rig solopub challenges by playing during certain times/servers/etc. All solopub challenges are played at the same time as I ordinarily play -- ~6-9 EST, all days, east server, no MM dodging (which I didn't even know about at the time). I also very rarely play more than 10 games in the same tank in the same day, so most challenges would take 2+ weeks. Some took months (the 2nd kv5 challenge took me like 5 months). I also announced the challenges before I started so it was impossible to "start" the challenge on a good run to pad stats -- many people start a challenge and if they do well, publish and if they don't, they don't. That isn't a challenge, its luck.

Solopub win rate challenge = no gimmicks, no tricks, nothing but winning regardless of circumstance. That's why 60-65% is a great performance, easily top 0.1% of the server and why 65%+ means top 5 players on the server. Its no joke, and almost everyone overestimates what they can actually do. The challenge of winning without tricks is intense.

 

I'll echo that. I only published 1 challenge and only did 1 other, but the intensity is part of what helped me grow as a player. And anyone with a statistical instinct should know better than to intentionally introduce bias by not counting games on given days or avoiding playing X tank on days Y and Z. 

 

Step up or step out!

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I may be pretty much screwed here. I haven't tracked the battle results since I posted this topic, and if I actually start the challenge now instead of just using the win rate alone of the interval between then and now (which is frankly just horrible), it could be interpreted as cherrypicking (though I could argue otherwise, since I don't know how my next series of battles is going to go).

 

Also, I never accused Garbad of anything. He's pretty legit. I still don't know how easy it is for him to be successful on weekends vs weekdays, though.

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It most certainly would be cherry picking, since if you ignore this set of battles, then what is to stop you from ignoring the next set of battles and the next set after that until you get a decent run.

The battles that count are the ones from when you announced that you had started the challenge. That is why people were suggesting that 67% was a bit of a lofty goal! As it stands, either you find a way to collate all your results to date or you have effectively abandoned the challenge.

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