The Official Garbad Fan Club Thread

[zombiemachine 2]

I tried GW2, fun for a few hours but in the end really not my thing.

I got my T-80 today, so stronk, totally worth the two preceding T-72 grinds. Had more fun in the thing today than in all the games I've played in my Chally 1 at 57%.

[Smbakeresq 109]

I'd say they think the Fed is somehow making interest rates unnaturally low because it is in fact, setting interest rates at near zero.  You can argue that they should set it at zero or not, but its a fact that they are in fact setting interest rates.  You mention the free market interest rate -- as if that's a real thing.  Tell me, when was the last time supply and demand determined interest rates?  The 1920s?  Welcome to monetary policy, where interest rates are arbitrary and economists dream about trickle up economics.

How the Fed Works:

1.  Give banks piles of free money.

2.  ???

3.  BOOM ECONOMY! \o/

Shockingly, SHOCKINGLY, it turns out that simply giving investors ass tons of money doesn't create profitable investment.  Perhaps its time to actually consider what actually drives economic growth -- productivity, not monetary policy games.

The key in your reply is they THINK that the fed is setting rates unnaturally low, but it really isn't.  If you are a total free marketer, then you believe that there is a "natural" rate determined by the market and the FED can only interfere.  While the FED has some effect setting rates, its not as large as people think it is, and it is constrained because it cant pass 0.  But don't take it from me:

He’s completely right about the economics. Monetary policy, in which the central bank buys and sells securities to change the monetary base, is nothing at all like price controls. Furthermore, we have a very clear model that tells us what interest rates would be in the absence of distortions and rigidities, the Wicksellian natural rate — the rate of interest consistent with an economy subject neither to inflationary overheating nor deflationary excess supply. And with inflation consistently below the generally accepted 2 percent target, this model says that the actual interest rate, at zero, is above the natural rate, not below.

Paul Krugman

The FED isn't about profitable investment.  It is about the economy of the whole, not the %1 or the banks.  Every person who is complaining about the FEDS actions have been wrong about everything in macro-economics since 2008; but they think they are right and its the FED making them wrong.  They just wont reconsider anything, but then we already know the conservative mind is closed to any input that affects their beliefs. 

 

I am not sure about trickle up economics is the right term for when as you say big banks get piles of money.  That sounds like trickle down to me except the money is not in the form of a tax break. I do know that trickle down economics have never worked and there is no evidence that it ever will.  And the FED isn’t lending money at low interest to banks, with their $2.5 trillion of excess reserves banks are lending vast sums at low interest to the FED.

 

I I am pretty sure I do know why bankers want rate hikes, so they can make more money right now as opposed to 3-5 years from now.  But don't take it from me.

 

Why Bankers Want Rate Hikes

 

 

Photo

Credit

I’ve been arguing that a major source of the urge to hike interest rates despite low inflation is the self-interest of bankers, whose profits suffer in a low-rate environment. Right on cue, the BIS has a new paper documenting that relationship. The key argument:

The “retail deposits endowment effect” derives from the fact that bank deposits are typically priced as a markdown on market rates, typically reflecting some form of oligopolistic power and transaction services. If the markdown becomes smaller as interest rates decline, then monetary policy tightening will increase net interest income. The endowment effect was a big source of profits at high inflation rates and when competition within the banking sector and between banks and non-banks was very limited, such as in many countries in the late 1970s. It has again become quite prominent, but operating in reverse, post-crisis, as interest rates have become extraordinarily low: as the deposit rate cannot fall below zero, at least to any significant extent, the markdown is compressed when the policy rate is reduced to very low levels.

This is pretty much what I said in the linked piece. The chart shows the paper’s estimate of the effect of higher short-term rates on bank profits (the partial derivative); it’s strongly positive at low rates.

So it really is in bankers’ interest to demand monetary tightening, even when it’s inappropriate given the state of the economy.

 

 

 

[Smbakeresq 109]

Have you ever taken an honest look at your peers?  They are mostly pillow humping man children who watch cartoons from their mom's basement.  They work part time tech support (stem master race) at the local game stop, if that.  They never bathe, and wear sweats and a star wars t shirt "to be comfortable."  They eat shit and never work out.  The last book they read was hentai.

Its not hard to look great when you are surrounded by typical wotlabs shitters.

I would bet that GARBAD is like me, he actually reads books, with real pages made out of paper with words in ink that you have to hold in your hands to read.  He probably even has a library card to sign things out, not just use the free public computer.  Newspapers too, the paper kind that gets ink on your fingers while drinking the morning coffee.

I actually remember when a book wasn't a PDF.  Its a dying breed out there.   

[Garbad 10,517]

The key in your reply is they THINK that the fed is setting rates unnaturally low, but it really isn't.  If you are a total free marketer, then you believe that there is a "natural" rate determined by the market and the FED can only interfere.  While the FED has some effect setting rates, its not as large as people think it is, and it is constrained because it cant pass 0.  But don't take it from me:

He’s completely right about the economics. Monetary policy, in which the central bank buys and sells securities to change the monetary base, is nothing at all like price controls. Furthermore, we have a very clear model that tells us what interest rates would be in the absence of distortions and rigidities, the Wicksellian natural rate — the rate of interest consistent with an economy subject neither to inflationary overheating nor deflationary excess supply. And with inflation consistently below the generally accepted 2 percent target, this model says that the actual interest rate, at zero, is above the natural rate, not below.

Paul Krugman

The FED isn't about profitable investment.  It is about the economy of the whole, not the %1 or the banks.  Every person who is complaining about the FEDS actions have been wrong about everything in macro-economics since 2008; but they think they are right and its the FED making them wrong.  They just wont reconsider anything, but then we already know the conservative mind is closed to any input that affects their beliefs. 

 

I am not sure about trickle up economics is the right term for when as you say big banks get piles of money.  That sounds like trickle down to me except the money is not in the form of a tax break. I do know that trickle down economics have never worked and there is no evidence that it ever will.  And the FED isn’t lending money at low interest to banks, with their $2.5 trillion of excess reserves banks are lending vast sums at low interest to the FED.

 

I I am pretty sure I do know why bankers want rate hikes, so they can make more money right now as opposed to 3-5 years from now.  But don't take it from me.

 

Why Bankers Want Rate Hikes

 

•  
•  
•  

 

Photo

Credit

I’ve been arguing that a major source of the urge to hike interest rates despite low inflation is the self-interest of bankers, whose profits suffer in a low-rate environment. Right on cue, the BIS has a new paper documenting that relationship. The key argument:

This is pretty much what I said in the linked piece. The chart shows the paper’s estimate of the effect of higher short-term rates on bank profits (the partial derivative); it’s strongly positive at low rates.

So it really is in bankers’ interest to demand monetary tightening, even when it’s inappropriate given the state of the economy.

 

 

 

Jesus, pubbie.  If Rome had walls that thick we would still be paying tribute to Caesar.  The short answer is that there is no such thing as a market interest rate in a world where fiat money is controlled by a central government.  Its purely policy, and so to argue that the natural interest rate should be higher is like arguing that the natural size of a dollar bill should be 1 foot long.

So given that interest rates are purely policy driven, the only question is if the policy is working.  Most would agree that low interest rates/low inflation is not really helping, but at least it isn't hurting.  There simply isn't a lot of profitable, growing business out there.  I've yet to hear a compelling argument for why interest rates should be set higher.

 

 

I tried GW2, fun for a few hours but in the end really not my thing.

I got my T-80 today, so stronk, totally worth the two preceding T-72 grinds. Had more fun in the thing today than in all the games I've played in my Chally 1 at 57%.

Gw2 is fun for me for casual wvw and the occasional exploring burst.  Raiding it will be interesting to see.

I would bet that GARBAD is like me, he actually reads books, with real pages made out of paper with words in ink that you have to hold in your hands to read.  He probably even has a library card to sign things out, not just use the free public computer.  Newspapers too, the paper kind that gets ink on your fingers while drinking the morning coffee.

I actually remember when a book wasn't a PDF.  Its a dying breed out there.   

I read ~50-75 books a year.  I usually read an hour or so as I'm falling asleep each night.  I also read several quality web sites each day, including science daily (a collection of abstracts of all current research) and other industry tombs like the WSJ, etc.  I spend approximately the same amount of time looking at cute kitten pictures.  Only then do I consider starting to work.

[FreddBoy 734]

Garbad, what is your thoughts on the upcoming WoT reward tank, the Soviet T-22? Do you like the fact that it's available for all by doing missions on the new rampage mode, or are you indifferent to its inclusion in game?

[zombiemachine 2]

 

Gw2 is fun for me for casual wvw and the occasional exploring burst.  Raiding it will be interesting to see.

Ah, haven't tried wvw yet. I tried the unranked pvp battles for a while and got a reminder of what it is like to fail miserably time and time again.

[Garbad 10,517]

Garbad, what is your thoughts on the upcoming WoT reward tank, the Soviet T-22? Do you like the fact that it's available for all by doing missions on the new rampage mode, or are you indifferent to its inclusion in game?

I don't know a thing about either.

[Prosqtor 114]

Jesus, pubbie.  If Rome had walls that thick we would still be paying tribute to Caesar.  The short answer is that there is no such thing as a market interest rate in a world where fiat money is controlled by a central government.  Its purely policy, and so to argue that the natural interest rate should be higher is like arguing that the natural size of a dollar bill should be 1 foot long.

So given that interest rates are purely policy driven, the only question is if the policy is working.  Most would agree that low interest rates/low inflation is not really helping, but at least it isn't hurting.  There simply isn't a lot of profitable, growing business out there.  I've yet to hear a compelling argument for why interest rates should be set higher.

 

 

Gw2 is fun for me for casual wvw and the occasional exploring burst.  Raiding it will be interesting to see.

I read ~50-75 books a year.  I usually read an hour or so as I'm falling asleep each night.  I also read several quality web sites each day, including science daily (a collection of abstracts of all current research) and other industry tombs like the WSJ, etc.  I spend approximately the same amount of time looking at cute kitten pictures.  Only then do I consider starting to work.

Tomes, Garbad.  However, I would not call the WSJ a tome OR a tomb.   A fantastic newspaper, however.  

[Garbad 10,517]

Tomes, Garbad.  However, I would not call the WSJ a tome OR a tomb.   A fantastic newspaper, however.  

My shame...I am no longer a super unicum. :c

I was required to have a subscription to the paper WSJ as part of my major.  Its the only newspaper I've ever paid for.  Its not bad tho, getting worse.

http://i.imgur.com/NXuM0Um.gifv

Also, watch this.

[_Juris 216]

My shame...I am no longer a super unicum. :c

I was required to have a subscription to the paper WSJ as part of my major.  Its the only newspaper I've ever paid for.  Its not bad tho, getting worse.

The Economist is a solid one to add, if you don't already read it.

[Rodrigopine 184]

Garbad,

Will you be watching "The Man in the High Castle" next month on Amazon? I'm hoping the do it justice.

[Garbad 10,517]

The Economist is a solid one to add, if you don't already read it.

I do.

Garbad,

Will you be watching "The Man in the High Castle" next month on Amazon? I'm hoping the do it justice.

Don't know what that is.  I very rarely watch TV.

Also, someone give me the info on the T-22/rampage mode.

[Rodrigopine 184]

Phillip K Dick wrote a story in the 60s about "What if the Axis Powers won WWII?" Very well written. The trailer for the series looks pretty good. But as you know most things boil down to proper execution.

[Garbad 10,517]

So let's talk rome total war:  divide et impera.

I'm currently playing a H/VH rome runthru as Julli.  Rome is the only true faction because its auxillia system are far better than anyone else, plus legionaries are pretty much stronker.  Terms of the deal are 6 legions, max with 1 fleet in support.  All agents and other fleets/legions are just used to tone down imperium and make money.

I've figured out the optimum layout for all 2/3/4 region setups.  Marturia is my economic stronkhold; it produces like 30k profit a turn.  Everywhere else just makes food, faster research, and enough taxes to support themselves.  All excess resources are funneled into fud so I can make my regional troop production centers as pimp as possible.

My first 3 starter legions are rome/greek hybrids.  Using italy (specialized in heavy infantry and engineers) and magna grecia (specialized in cav/archer), I supply 3x legions with:  5x thes cav, 1x cata, 1x general, 6x legionary, 5x vet legion, 2x cretian archer.  This is effectively invincible, fast to replace, and can trump literally anyone.  Everything else is flavor. I usually send them into battle one core legion and one assist legion for support.

Other centers are:

Thrace - First off, dacian horses are overrated.  They are fast, but meh quality. But everything else owns.  Rhompers smash fuckers.  With like 59 attack, 70 charge, and 40 weapon damage, they insta rout people on flanks.  They have zero armor, but that's cool because the legions can tank for them all day long.  Horse archers are nasty too -- 42 shots per fucking minute at 30 damage a shot -- I usually thin the field and get some horses behidn people and just plain murder them in the back.  Why bother with alexandrian tactics when you can volley people in seconds?  They do die easily tho.  The thracian petlasts are also not to be underestimated -- very high damage, good rof, good range, and in melee they are average quality spearmen, capable of defending themselves against cav or holding a key point.  Again, like all thracians, they die easily.  But with romans fixing and thracians flanking, its just plain murder.  They even have the 3rd highest swordsman style infantry, in case you want filler on the cheap.  Thrace is not so stronk alone, but murder in tandem with a legion.

Gaul - Poor quality archers, fun war dogs, mediocreish heavy infantry...but quite stronk medium cavs.  The best thing here is they are fast and hit hard, better for clearing out archers and one big hit from behind.  They have no staying power.  Mostly meat for when I need men to die.

Germany - Germany has the 2nd best heavy infantry (good dmg, but less def than rome), the best archers in the game, high defense heavy cavs, and acceptable support.  They are the best rounded force, suitable for working alone.  Working with an imperial legion, they are best to fill what rome can't (archers/skirmishers/horse).

Iberia - Play poorly against rome/greece/germanic heavy infantry, but do very well against the skirmisher shitters of africa and the desert.  Baelaric slingers are deadly on flanks and have infinite ammo, iberian cav is almost as good as gaulic and has javcav variants (too risky, imo), and medium infantry with high offense.  Good for high speed attacks and range, which you want down south.

Persia - godlike shock cav, good archers, and nothing else.  Shock cav are a bit too slow for my taste tho.

Africa is shitters, greece is inferior, brits are inferior, and I don't yet control the middle east.  They are inferior anyhow.  Pretty much thrace = germany > gaul/iberia/persia > shitters.

[Prosqtor 114]

My shame...I am no longer a super unicum. :c

I was required to have a subscription to the paper WSJ as part of my major.  Its the only newspaper I've ever paid for.  Its not bad tho, getting worse.

http://i.imgur.com/NXuM0Um.gifv

Also, watch this.

Ha, loved the ducks.

 

[Garbad 10,517]

http://imgur.com/gallery/heZzYeb

[zombiemachine 2]

Are you Tharanor?

[Garbad 10,517]

Are you Tharanor?

No idea what that is.

[Garbad 10,517]

Pay to win is like prostitution -- it only is there for those who can't get it on their own.

[zombiemachine 2]

No idea what that is.

He's the imgur user who uploaded several of the gifs you posted, like the duckling horde and kitty peekaboo.

[Acumen 95]

Is it my imagination or are auto cannon type wheeled vehicles are bit OP in AW? I got hit by a fox for 250 a shot? At least I think I did. That was what the damage panel was showing.

[Garbad 10,517]

Is it my imagination or are auto cannon type wheeled vehicles are bit OP in AW? I got hit by a fox for 250 a shot? At least I think I did. That was what the damage panel was showing.

Let's differentiate.

Autocannon = usually like 40 rounds, 40 damage.  20-30mm guns, things like the terminator, Lav 150, etc.  0.1 sec between shots, very high dpm.  Basically a machine gun.

Autoloader = 3-8 shots per clip, ~1-3 seconds between shots, ~15-20 second clip reload time.  Basically a wot autoloader.

 

Fox is an autoloader, not an AC.  Its got 6 rounds, ~100 dmg per shot.  Warrior and bagel are also autoloaders.  And in general I think autoloaders are reasonably ok, but AC have too high DPM imo.

[canadiantrex 2,621]

Let's differentiate.

Autocannon = usually like 40 rounds, 40 damage.  20-30mm guns, things like the terminator, Lav 150, etc.  0.1 sec between shots, very high dpm.  Basically a machine gun.

Autoloader = 3-8 shots per clip, ~1-3 seconds between shots, ~15-20 second clip reload time.  Basically a wot autoloader.

 

Fox is an autoloader, not an AC.  Its got 6 rounds, ~100 dmg per shot.  Warrior and bagel are also autoloaders.  And in general I think autoloaders are reasonably ok, but AC have too high DPM imo.

Earlier this morning I was in my BMP-1, getting a double in PVE. A BMP-2 (might have been a BMD-2, can't recall for sure) spawned directly in front of me about 10 meters away. Pew pew pew, RIP me. Literally nothing I could do to keep from losing about 700 health.

[Acumen 95]

I think the AFv's are pretty OP in AW. they certainly are making my WR go up.

[Garbad 10,517]

Earlier this morning I was in my BMP-1, getting a double in PVE. A BMP-2 (might have been a BMD-2, can't recall for sure) spawned directly in front of me about 10 meters away. Pew pew pew, RIP me. Literally nothing I could do to keep from losing about 700 health.

dmp spam in pve is annoying. 

I think the AFv's are pretty OP in AW. they certainly are making my WR go up.

They can be, especially in low tiers.  XM800T master race.

______________________________

So my thoughts on gw2:

- Fuck those fucking assholes and their patch schedule.  First, you couldn't predownload.  3.5 gb on the day of release.  The next three days have each had major patches.  THEY RELEASED A HUGE FUCKING PATCH AT 6 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  SERIOUSLY, FUCK YOU PEOPLE, SOME OF US HAVE SHIT INTERNETS.  So thanks to this bullshit, I've only played a little bit.
- The new music is super good.
- Gliding is very fun, more than you would think.  Its a lot like aion.  The only down side is constantly falling to your death.
- The new areas were ok, for what little I played it.

I haven't tried new pvp, gvg, wvw, fun stuff, etc.  People are complaining about the difficulty (very hard to solo), and the length of time it takes to get max skill points (200+ levels to max out the new lines).  The new guild stuff is evidently very cool, people are hyped.