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Capn Greg

Really high and really low WRs in certain tanks.

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This happens to everyone. Some tanks click, some don't. Some tanks you get endlessly fucked, some you don't. Look at my tier 8's:

 

Cent 1 199 matches, 59%

Panther 2 128 matches, 79%

 

And even more ridiculous, my 10's:

 

T110E5 417 matches, 54%

Obj 140 197 matches, 50%

Obj 430 260 matches 64%

Maus 187 matches 64%

Jagdpanzer E 100 903 matches, 62%

T110E3 860 matches, 54%

 

Those are just tanks with significant sample sizes, there are other even more ridiculous ones. Like my 49% in the 113. Some tanks click, some don't. I think it's a safe bet that every single player has similar experiences. I get all kinds of disbelief when people look at my 430 and 62A and then I tell them I hate the 140. Guffaws abound when I play the 215b and tell people I play that because I despise the E5 with a fiery passion. And everyone is shocked and apalled when I bust out my patented Patton_best_pub_med_NA.

 

Every player is going to play differently, and every player is going to have a natural affinity towards certain play styles over others.

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Is there any quick and dirty way to approximate deviation of WR within desired confidence interval after a given number of battles? (I hope my attempt to remember proper terminology from the statistics classes makes sense...)

 

If you assume that most of the variation is random (which is generally a reasonable assumption), then you can just use binomials:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mn88PeqSvVoo_4fYIa3Bi1Kf8VkP4zd6lnFdGhVzKpI/edit#gid=951601698

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You can ask wolframalpha for a rough estimate of how lucky or unlucky you are to get a tank winrate that is off from what you expect.

 

Take the VK. 3002M, a tank that I eventually grew to love. Hardly platting with anyone through that grind to the Panther and 164 battles later, 57%.

 

For your VK 3002M you could ask "more than 92 successes in 164 trials, probability of success 54%"

here

 

And you will get 0.269, So if you were performing at a 54% win rate sort of level, there is a 27% chance you end up with a 57% win rate or more, so not that unlikely. Though you may also have clicked with the tank and actually performed at a higher level.

 

T28 Proto? Well I could use it effectively; I got an ace tanker in the thing, but a 45% WR after 344 battles?

 

Apparently if you were playing at your current level you'd have roughly 0.03% chance of getting that win rate or lower after so many battles, likely either the tank is shit, or you weren't playing up to your current level. If you or the tank was performing at a 50% level the chance of a 45% win rate or worse is closer to 3%. Still unlikely, but much more likely.

 

My FCM 50t, a tank which I really like! Don't even get me started...

128 battles, 38%

For a 54% win rate player than chance of getting such a low win rate or lower is roughly 0.013%. But if you were playing at a 50% win rate level then your chance is closer to 0.3%. So I guess you were playing these tanks before you hit your current skill level. It is super unlikely that you are that unlucky to get such bad win rates. Even if you played them back when you were playing like a 50 percenter, you would have to be very unlucky to get the win rates you got.

 

Generally it's true that 100 or so battles is too low a sample size, the chance of being off by 5% or more win rate either way after 100 battles is around 26% for a 50% win rate player, so having outlier tanks isn't that uncommon. But when you hit higher sample counts, or really wide outliers, the numbers start to tell a lot more, either about the tank, or the players ability to play that tank.

 

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A large part of winning in a specific tank is psychological and a good start is probably the best way of maintaining a high WR: If you know your tank can win the majority of the time, you will often play better and secure more wins as well. For instance, I am not particularly comfortable playing my T-44 because it has bot-tier WR despite not being a very bad vehicle anymore. It simply feels like every shot I fire is going to bounce or fly all the way to the edge of the reticle. Objectively, I realise that it's my fault since it is so woefully below my overall WR but it's just hard to man up and get good when it feels like you have to overperform just to hit sub-standard wins.

 

A polar opposite is my Type 64, which is winning so much (albeit over a very small amount of battles) that I'm almost afraid of playing it. It sits on an 85% WR after 26 battles and the ones I've lost were the battles I platooned with people. I am a terrible scout player but there is just something that allows me to play it like a hardmode medium when the spotting fails and have an extremely high success rate for securing wins.

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