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rmw00

I'd like to understand MM...

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I'd like to understand this...

 

I write down info on every battle I play.  Generally the XVM predictions have averaged out to around 50% as expected.  Since mid May, I've played about 500 battles with only 38% of them with an XVM prediction of over 50%.  Until then my recent win rate had been around 53-55%.  It's dropped to below 50%.

 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I'd think 500 battles should be enough for this sort of thing to average out.

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Also, MM does not consider player ratings.  XVM win chance does consider player ratings.  Therefore, it's possible it might average out around 50%, but I wouldn't count on it.

 

Additionally, 500 is a decent sample, but far from a reliable one from a statistics point of view.

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Don't even let the game show the XVM winchance, I turned it off.

Was averaging 55% with that on, now I'm almost stable at 60%, with considerable better performances dmgwise as well.

An educated guess based on the colours u see and the tanks they are in is more than enough, trust me

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Also, MM does not consider player ratings. 

 

This. Plus I found if the win chance gave you a shitty 30% after 2-3 bad games in a row it caused me to play on tilt and rage.

 

Obviously seeing the colours on the teams gives me an educated guess as posted above, but wasn't as black and white as "20% - go F*** yourself"

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I've seen over time that XVM does usually average out to about 50% and my win rate is about 3-5% higher than the XVM predictions.

 

This would mean that overall, I see an equal number of games where I'm on the worse team vs. the better team and had about 53-55% win rate.

 

That all seams reasonable.

 

For the last 500 battles, the XVM win prediction has been about 38% and my win rate has dropped to about 48%.  This would indicate that my previous observations regarding my win rate compare to XVM predictions were generally accurate.

 

I know for a given battle, XVM predictions aren't that good, but why would they drop from an average of 50% to 38%?

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Random is a bitch man, but it really is random as sooooooooo many have said before. It's possible to flip a coin and have it land on heads 1,000 times in a row.

 

I've seen EXACTLY the same thing happen over my last several hundred games. I had an honest to goodness 54% recent less than a month ago. It lasted less than a week before the avalanche started.

 

My last session (several days ago) I had 1700 WN8 and 38% w/r over ~25 games. I wasn't playing "badly" but I just couldn't carry hard enough.

 

So I've decided MM can go fuck itself for a while. :D

 

Take a break. It'll do you a lot more good than trying to understand random imo.

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Since mid May, I've played about 500 battles with only 38% of them with an XVM prediction of over 50%.

 

I know for a given battle, XVM predictions aren't that good, but why would they drop from an average of 50% to 38%?

 

These statements are not equivalent. Which one is correct?

 

38% of results with a prediction over 50% is likely to be an average prediction of around 45-47%, which is well within the bounds of probability for an average player and a 500 game sample.

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The thing is, if you plot the whole thing as a curve (which I'm not going to do because I'm not going to turn the cancerous win-predicter on) it all falls well within the first standard deviation on what is already a pretty damned flat curve.  Trying to extrapolate any meaningful conclusions out of garbage data is just a waste of calculator buttons.

 

You create your own win rate.

 

 

 

 

 

(o7 DHO)

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