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FlorbFnarb

Shit's blowing up in Paris; our EU peeps all okay?

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11 minutes ago, gdgrim said:

Funny, but there is no "Thanksgiving" in Russia or anywhere except US...

Ofc there isn't, but can you miss a pun like this, especially if it's going viral on FB? :)

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Turkey is buying oil from isis, thus funding their operations. Fuck Turkey.

The world is not black and white. Russia can be the bad guy in the Ukraine and the good guy in Syria.

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On November 25, 2015 at 5:25:18 PM, gdgrim said:

Funny, but there is no "Thanksgiving" in Russia or anywhere except US...

Anyway, Turkey is a loose cannon ever since Erdogan came on the scene with his wet dreams about becoming the next sultan. Whoever supports him is creating the next Islamic dictator. EU needs secular Turkey, not the opposite. Whats the point in killing all those "bad" secular dictators in Middle East when we replace them with Islamic dictators?

And as for Russia, they are a lot closer to "West" than anyone else. They have the same Judeo-Christian values as EU/NA and both EU and Russia can benefit greatly from tighter economical cooperation. Cold war is a thing of past...

Clearly it is not, given Putin's actions for a long time now.

I have no illusions whatsoever about Erdogan.  He is not especially democratic and he has sympathies towards Islamist ideology...but by that I mean Muslim predominance of the government and law in Muslim-majority countries, not this crap of genocide against Jewish, Christiana and Yazidi minorities.  I am not blind about Erdogan's tendencies, but neither am I going to inflate them to make him seem like a de facto ally of ISIS.

Putin is a potential major problem, however.  I think it should be fairly uncontroversial to say he's constantly running a program of intimidation toward many former Soviet republics and satellites.  Georgia and Ukraine can tell you what happens when Putin wants to make a point.  So can the Baltic states.

Unless this was an entirely unintended mess on both sides, this was an operation planned by Putin to push NATO, to test NATO reaction.  He's playing a dangerous bluffing game, because he's fairly sure that the rest of NATO will not come to Turkey's defense, which would be a massive display of lack of resolve on NATO's part, which would make the Eastern European members of NATO extremely nervous about whether they can count on NATO to come to their defense in the event the Russians attempt to throw their weight around.  Throw some Russian fighter-bombers across the Turkish border until one gets shot down, start making loud noises toward Turkey, and see if NATO has a spine.  This is not difficult to puzzle out.

NATO was a body in search of a purpose after the dissolution of the Soviet Union...but it didn't take Putin very long to turn NATO's function back to countering Russian aggression.  Not long at all.

We are obliged by treaty to support and defend Turkey, and that's what's going to happen.  Turkey is far from perfect, especially over the past few years, but they are a NATO member and their worse tendencies can be curbed.  They will not be thrown to the wolves bear.

10 hours ago, canadiantrex said:

Turkey is buying oil from isis, thus funding their operations. Fuck Turkey.

The world is not black and white. Russia can be the bad guy in the Ukraine and the good guy in Syria.

It's the same guy running the show in both instances.  Putin doesn't just stumble into this crap.

18 minutes ago, hallo1994 said:

President Obama has threaten to veto the bill.

 

That's because Obama really doesn't pay attention to whether anything is good security policy or not.  The government has already admitted they can't even come close to vetting all the refugees, but the welfare of the refugees matters more to Obama than the welfare of Americans.  He squares this in his mind by just convincing himself there is no conflict because there is no security threat...which is absurd, but it isn't the first instance of mental pretzel-logic on his part.

I read somewhere that it takes five times as much money to resettle these refugees in Europe and America as it does to settle them closer to home...meaning we could do five times as much good for the same money settling them elsewhere in the Middle East as we could by settling them in Europe and America, but it wouldn't give people the same sentimental warm fuzzy feelings to do that.  It's literally a case of people prioritizing their own moral posturing over the welfare of their countrymen and the welfare of the refugees.

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I have no illusions whatsoever about Erdogan.  He is not especially democratic and he has sympathies towards Islamist ideology...but by that I mean Muslim predominance of the government and law in Muslim-majority countries, not this crap of genocide against Jewish, Christiana and Yazidi minorities.  I am not blind about Erdogan's tendencies, but neither am I going to inflate them to make him seem like a de facto ally of ISIS.

Of course they support ISIS, not openly, but they do. Buying oil from ISIS is a support to ISIS, or how else would you define it? Same way US is supporting ISIS by sending weapons to the "moderate" rebels who sell them to ISIS in a split second. Fail after fail. 

Also Turks have fair share of genocides (Armenian) and oppression of minorities (Kurds, Christians) on their hand. European countries that have been tainted by the Ottoman will hate Turks much more than Russians. You cannot understand the geopolitics of this from your position and it clearly shows.

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Putin is a potential major problem, however.  I think it should be fairly uncontroversial to say he's constantly running a program of intimidation toward many former Soviet republics and satellites.  Georgia and Ukraine can tell you what happens when Putin wants to make a point.  So can the Baltic states.

I agree with you on this. But the solution is not to aggravate him more, but show him cooperation is better. Look at this map:

27602.gif

NATO expanded so much that Russia feels it needs to flex and show teeth to keep it off its back. What did US do when Cuba became communist? How did you guys like the potential threat of having Soviet nukes in your backyard and how did you handle it?

Well this is what Russia is dealing with right now.

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Unless this was an entirely unintended mess on both sides, this was an operation planned by Putin to push NATO, to test NATO reaction.  He's playing a dangerous bluffing game, because he's fairly sure that the rest of NATO will not come to Turkey's defense, which would be a massive display of lack of resolve on NATO's part, which would make the Eastern European members of NATO extremely nervous about whether they can count on NATO to come to their defense in the event the Russians attempt to throw their weight around.  Throw some Russian fighter-bombers across the Turkish border until one gets shot down, start making loud noises toward Turkey, and see if NATO has a spine.  This is not difficult to puzzle out.

NATO was a body in search of a purpose after the dissolution of the Soviet Union...but it didn't take Putin very long to turn NATO's function back to countering Russian aggression.  Not long at all.

We are obliged by treaty to support and defend Turkey, and that's what's going to happen.  Turkey is far from perfect, especially over the past few years, but they are a NATO member and their worse tendencies can be curbed.  They will not be thrown to the wolves bear.

The premise that Russia is testing NATO's integrity to potentially find flaw and attack is completely false. They have no fucking money to attack any NATO country, also what would they achieve with it?

The proxy war in Ukraine was started with 2 purposes:

1) stop it from joining NATO

2) get Krym back

 

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1 hour ago, gdgrim said:

NATO expanded so much that Russia feels it needs to flex and show teeth to keep it off its back. What did US do when Cuba became communist? How did you guys like the potential threat of having Soviet nukes in your backyard and how did you handle it?

I second that. In the late 1990s, the neo-Conservative think-thank Project for a New American Century actually recommended entirely shifting the focus of U.S. foreign policy from Europe towards the ME and East Asia (and wasn't entirely mistaken in that regard).

Here's their defense review, it's an interesting read: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf

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How other members of NATO reacted to SU-24 event clearly shows that NATO doesnt stand behind what Turkey did. Only USA had to act all cool and supportive because its important that 'muricans suddenly dont get to confused as to why Russia is not their enemy no.1 any more (the brainwasing must be stronk).

 

France, Germany, UK and others clearly dont support Turkey and its government but they are forced to share the NATO deal. EU voiced their dissatisfaction and concern over Erdogans actions many many times so far, i would be really surprised if they showed any support for Turkey.

 

11 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

  I am not blind about Erdogan's tendencies, but neither am I going to inflate them to make him seem like a de facto ally of ISIS.

Please, dont be so naive. Erdogan has done almost everything short of screaming "Alahu Akbar" in his support of ISIS. Not only is he helping them in Syria, he is slowly turning Turkey in breeding ground for terrorists and entire country is slowly sliding towards radical islam.

 

As things stand now, RU did more for protection of Europe and against ISIS than entire NATO coalition combined, and they did it in a fraction of time it has taken NATO. Not to mention they dont train "other" rebels that in return sell guns to ISIS or just plain join them.

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I think both Russia and Turkey knew what they were doing and what they were getting into.

Shooting a jet that is in your airspace for 17 seconds, even with prior warning, is not a spur of the moment decision. 

The fact that Russia has protested even less strong than they protested that MH17 was taken down by a BUK shot from pro-Russian rebel occupied territory against Turkey shooting down one of their jets shows they know were testing stuff beyond limits as well. They even started by claiming the jet was taken down by ground fire, leaving the option for Turkey to chicken out. 

All of this is a game to these powermongers and it's not about who's good or who's right, it's all about gaining / maintaining a powerbase, no matter who suffers.

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15 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

Clearly it is not, given Putin's actions for a long time now.

I have no illusions whatsoever about Erdogan.  He is not especially democratic and he has sympathies towards Islamist ideology...but by that I mean Muslim predominance of the government and law in Muslim-majority countries, not this crap of genocide against Jewish, Christiana and Yazidi minorities.  I am not blind about Erdogan's tendencies, but neither am I going to inflate them to make him seem like a de facto ally of ISIS.

Putin is a potential major problem, however.  I think it should be fairly uncontroversial to say he's constantly running a program of intimidation toward many former Soviet republics and satellites.  Georgia and Ukraine can tell you what happens when Putin wants to make a point.  So can the Baltic states.

Unless this was an entirely unintended mess on both sides, this was an operation planned by Putin to push NATO, to test NATO reaction.  He's playing a dangerous bluffing game, because he's fairly sure that the rest of NATO will not come to Turkey's defense, which would be a massive display of lack of resolve on NATO's part, which would make the Eastern European members of NATO extremely nervous about whether they can count on NATO to come to their defense in the event the Russians attempt to throw their weight around.  Throw some Russian fighter-bombers across the Turkish border until one gets shot down, start making loud noises toward Turkey, and see if NATO has a spine.  This is not difficult to puzzle out.

NATO was a body in search of a purpose after the dissolution of the Soviet Union...but it didn't take Putin very long to turn NATO's function back to countering Russian aggression.  Not long at all.

We are obliged by treaty to support and defend Turkey, and that's what's going to happen.  Turkey is far from perfect, especially over the past few years, but they are a NATO member and their worse tendencies can be curbed.  They will not be thrown to the wolves bear.

It's the same guy running the show in both instances.  Putin doesn't just stumble into this crap.

That's because Obama really doesn't pay attention to whether anything is good security policy or not.  The government has already admitted they can't even come close to vetting all the refugees, but the welfare of the refugees matters more to Obama than the welfare of Americans.  He squares this in his mind by just convincing himself there is no conflict because there is no security threat...which is absurd, but it isn't the first instance of mental pretzel-logic on his part.

I read somewhere that it takes five times as much money to resettle these refugees in Europe and America as it does to settle them closer to home...meaning we could do five times as much good for the same money settling them elsewhere in the Middle East as we could by settling them in Europe and America, but it wouldn't give people the same sentimental warm fuzzy feelings to do that.  It's literally a case of people prioritizing their own moral posturing over the welfare of their countrymen and the welfare of the refugees.

Everyone flies trought eachothers airspace, shooting down a plane was not `russian set up` it was just turkey beiing retards.

U think Europe (or the US!) is willing to risk war with russia because turkey shoots down a russian jet?

This might have massive (internal) political consequences, many NATO members will be seriously pissed of, they wont tell in public, they perhaps wont even tell at internal NATO meetings, but they will sure as hell talk with others behind the doors.

Defending the baltics or poland against russian dickwaving? YES!
Defending turkey because they shoot down a russian jet to show the world how though they are? uh this is a bit more tricky...

NATO should afterall be a defence pact, when 1 member gets attacked the rest helps. 
It should NOT be that NATO members can do whatever they want because NATO will `hold their back`... (the US because of sheer size ofc beiing `special`, NATO is afterall imbalanced, the US is as strong  (or stronger) as the rest combined)

And if NATO cant deliver that (a strict defence pact), then it might be time the EU gets its own army and we leave NATO...

In regards to russian jets / bomber crossing other airspace:
http://www.nu.nl/buitenland/3915701/navo-ziet-veel-russische-vliegtuigen-in-europees-luchtruim.html

De NAVO spreekt van ''ongebruikelijk'' veel luchtactiviteit door de Russen. In 2014 heeft de NAVO al meer dan honderd keer Russische vliegtuigen onderschept. Dat is ongeveer drie keer zo veel als in heel 2013.
`NATO talks of `unusual` much air activity by the Russians. In 2014 NATO has intercepted more as 100 Russian aircraft. This is almost 3 times as much as in 2013`

or:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/turkish-and-greek-jets-engaged-in-dogfight-2015-7?r=US&IR=T

Our `ally` Turkey violating Greek airspace so often, they dont even list it anymore
http://neurope.eu/article/turkey-violated-greek-airspace-2244-in-2014/

2244 airspace violations by Turkey alone in 2014

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/full-list-of-incidents-involving-russian-military-and-nato-since-march-2014-9851309.html

Many `near misses` and nobody ever shot an aircraft down...

This russian jet was shot down by the turks on purpose, this was `set up` from the start, they said (internal): next time a russian jet crosses, shoot it down immediatly, they waited for a chance, gave some warnings, and shot it down the moment it crossed the border....

And in regards to dislike: Turkey = Ottoman Empire

Ottomans raided and sieged europe for centuries and were a rival / enemy for european countries from 1453 till 1918

Russia on the other hand was more often an ally as enemy, and they often got betrayed on top of that, Russia played key role in defeating Napoleon, Russia took a heavy toll in ww1, Russia / USSR took the brunt of ww2 fighting, and its reward?

It got ``stabbed in the back`` by the french and british in 1853 in the Crimean war, when they fought the Ottomans which got massive help from both france and the british, you know, the same brits which russia helped fighting the french... a few years later, when they again were about to crush the Ottomans, in 1877, they got shafted again, and also this time the brits forced them to back down...

So to sum up: The help the brits defeat the french, 40 years later the same brits deny them twice a devastating victory over the ottomans (no ww1 if the brits hadnt intervined), the russian then help the brits again against the germans, and 30 years later AGAIN, and their reward? nothing...

Russians not trusting europeans is thus not strange, the brits in special always ``outplayed`` them....

ps: the above is also why russia is a european country, and turkey not, Russia played the last 400 years often an (very) important role in european politics, it has the same religion, many of its customs and so on, turkey is fundamental different...

(i also dare to say the US differs as much from europe as Russia, its a shame Europe (not the west) didnt do more to help Russia recover from the Soviet meltdown, same its a shame it didnt do more when Putin was for the first time president, good European - Russian relations are vital, much more as relations with the middle east or turkey...)

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Absolutely no European or NATO country likes or wants to support Turkey. Except USA that has interests and missiles running across aiming at Vladimir. I can tell you now because I know tons of Officers here and some high ranked, if Greece was ordered to help Turkey, NATO can say bye bye to Greece. 

Not all European and NATO countries have the same rights. No one can touch the big 3 but they don't give a damn about any of the smaller countries. 

Europe needs Russia much more than they need some Islamic Ottoman empire. And they need Russia more than Russia needs them.

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47 minutes ago, kariverson said:

Absolutely no European or NATO country likes or wants to support Turkey. Except USA that has interests and missiles running across aiming at Vladimir. I can tell you now because I know tons of Officers here and some high ranked, if Greece was ordered to help Turkey, NATO can say bye bye to Greece. 

Not all European and NATO countries have the same rights. No one can touch the big 3 but they don't give a damn about any of the smaller countries. 

Europe needs Russia much more than they need some Islamic Ottoman empire. And they need Russia more than Russia needs them.

Ridiculous.  Nobody needs Russia for much of anything.  They're an oil producer in a world of oil producers, where improving technology is making more and more oil deposits economically worthwhile.

Tell me exactly what Western Europe actually needs from Putin apart from wanting to make nice and throw him however many Eastern European countries as sacrifices he demands because they can't be bothered to grow a spine when he starts acting like a tough guy?

Sticking up for all member states, including Turkey, is the function of NATO, and anybody willing to throw a NATO member state under the bus to appease Putin needs to (1) read their history, (2) talk to an elderly Czech or Slovak, and (3) grow a pair.

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9 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

Ridiculous.  Nobody needs Russia for much of anything.  They're an oil producer in a world of oil producers, where improving technology is making more and more oil deposits economically worthwhile.

Tell me exactly what Western Europe actually needs from Putin apart from wanting to make nice and throw him however many Eastern European countries as sacrifices he demands because they can't be bothered to grow a spine when he starts acting like a tough guy?

Sticking up for all member states, including Turkey, is the function of NATO, and anybody willing to throw a NATO member state under the bus to appease Putin needs to (1) read their history, (2) talk to an elderly Czech or Slovak, and (3) grow a pair.

if you want to buy oil, there only 2 options:

  1. Russian
  2. Middle east

Saudi and other backwards ME countries use it to buy weapons & train terrorist (who ofc all flee to europe) while Russia just uses it for its crony capitalism, i rather fund russian gangsters as saudi wahabist....

Also something americans, even very high up!, fail to understand that nationalilty > everything, to stick with Greece, Greece will never defend Turkey against russia if Turkey stars it themself, they hate turks (or atleast did in the past) they almost went to war in the seventies ffs (and both were in NATO!!)

And why we need Russia?

  • Russia borders East Europe, so they are our neighbour, having good relations with your neighbours is important
  • Russia is our main supplier of gas (and oil)
  • Russia has many raw materials, while we have knowldge, we nicely complete eachother
  • Russia has problems with muslim immigrants and jihad, we also, and we will get it more and more in the future, they are thus our natural ally (shared interest)
  • Russia is critical to US adventures in the middle east, and so is europe
  • Russia is a big trading partner

Trow in shared history and the fact we have many things in common, and why should we NOT have good relations with Russia? Russia trying to screw over its neighbours can also be prevented by:

  1. Showing we wont tolerate ``bullying``, alrdy to late for that now but ok...
  2. Treating them as an equal country, and not berate and complain, its onyl ridiculous hypocrite
  3. Dont do whatever Murica says and at the same time condem Russia for doing the same, France now saying Assad is part of the solution is a good directio
  4. By giving the baltics / poland / croatie EU membership (and some also NATO) we show Russia that we are serious about equal chances and suchs, if you behave in normal way, act as a normal country, then we are willing to commit a lot to it (even if this means a net cost, peace and safety may cost something

All ``the west`` has done last 10 year is slowly surround Russia with NATO members, act like thugs, complain when russia does the same and berate them for gay marriage and other crap. yet ``we`` support scum like Saudi Arabia, ``we`` start an illegal war in Iraq....

Dont be fooled by our spineless politicians, many people share the russian viewpoint on many things.

ps: Russia / Putin are ofc also thugs, but thats 1/3 because of US policy in the 90`s, 1/3 by how the west acted the past 20 years and 1/3 because ``russia``. if we had helped Russia evade the chaos of the 90`s, people like Putin would have never came to power, Putin is a reaction on the chaos and lawlesness which the west / US created, if people see chaos they demand a solution, and Putin gave this. The exact same will happen in Europe, if the Euro really crashes and immigrantion further escalates 100% we see fascist governments again, the only thing that prevents national socialism and fascism is the welfare state and ``the law`` (the government protection us). Remove those 2, like in 199x russia, and you also get here Putin like presidents...

and yes, the US is to blame:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Russia_(1992%E2%80%93present)#.22Shock_Therapy.22

It was US policy which made the economy truly tank and created the chaos....

edit: This it not US bashing btw, the US is our ally and a dominant US is better as a Chinese or Russian dominated world, but that doesnt mean ``we`` have to accept everything from the US or that we have to close our eyes for mistakes from the past. And closing your eyes is especially silly, someone like Jeb Bush saying iraq was: ``The Iraq War Was A ‘Good Deal’ Because Saddam Was Ousted`` makes the US / the west look like dirty hypocrites, they create chaos and they even dare to call it ``a good deal``.

if the US would say: well, if we look back it was perhaps not suchs a good idea, the message is a tad different... (all i now think is: is he really that retarded, or does he rly not care? or are those conspiracy stories about us elections beiing bought by big companies perhaps really true?) Its greatly underming US moral authority. 

The US went in 10 years from a country you look up to, to a country which turned to: we better avoid becoming like the US, the effects of this ``change`` will be longlasting and might be serious.

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http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-urges-turkey-to-seal-syria-border-1448674401

 

Uuuuu, will turkey obey US masters or will they act all innocent and clueless and continue to aid isis?

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Nato is a defensive pact, a member starting a war does not need to count on support. If nato parties would say the air space violation is not an act of war but shooting down an airplane without sufficient warning (radio only, etc) then Turkey is on its own. The disadvantage is that Russians don't respond wel to weakness and this would be showing weakness at its highest level. 

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