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Are "weekend teams" really a thing?

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I've seen a lot of people saying how they avoid playing during events/weekends because "games are shit". 

But why? You'd expect a seasoned player to have an easier time dominating when the servers are flooded with less experienced folk.

On the other hand, when you get too many of them in one team, game's usually very one sided and you won't have much of an impact.

I'd like to hear especially what people who usually spam T10 think about this.

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I've found that recently, my weekend W/R has been better than my midweek W/R. Midweek, especially around CW time, you get a lot of 3 man toons from good clans. End up on the wrong side playing solo and you can get rekt easily, without being able to influence the result.

On the weekend, there are more casuals and simultaneously less unica platoons, at least until standard CW times. Hence your impact is increased.

My weekend session, all solo (nearly all tier 10, with 7 tier 8 games and 2 tier 9 games):

0jyDhd4.png

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Sometimes. Friday and Saturday can go both ways easily, but Sunday.... more often than not i'll get 3-5 games, then i stop and play something else, because it's just crazy bad. Yesterday was a notable exception.

EDIT:

Quote

I'd like to hear especially what people who usually spam T10 think about this.

Ah. Ops. Haven't touched tier 10 yet. Highest i've seen was tier 9 in a MT-25 dunebuggy.

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Statistically I do worse on Thursdays than any other day. Weekends I always feel like I have shit games (certainly did this one!) due to teams being full of utter f*cktards who can't understand how to react to developing situations - or just base camp when they are the only top tier heavy.
 

More arty seem to be online at weekends too - that coupled with XVM focus means you're gonna have a bad time

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I agree with @Snoregasm2

It's not a matter of team getting worse. I think it's more of significantly better players come out, and are often in toons.

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I usually do worse on the weekends but I think it's mainly due to having the time to grind through more of my garage instead of just focusing on a few tanks. 

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Just now, Rexxie said:

I do not notice a player difference at any point or for any event, but I probably don't pay much attention. At the very least I think it's way overblown.

Really? Maybe NA is different to EU but there is a huge increase on EU servers during a x5 event. It brings more of the 'casual' players out of the woodwork

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Yeah. I can understand theoretically that something like x5 would make an impact, but it's been over 30k games and I'm still not noticing anything. I doubt EU is different from NA in this case, since NA players constantly complain about x5s and stuff too.

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A player on the NA forums(NeatoMan) that recorded a bunch of data on his games in the past said that weekend teams aren't worse based on the number of blowout battles.

 

I find that my solo pub win rate often drops on weekends for some reason.

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It could be that during x5 events, more players are apt to yolo due in first 3 min in hopes of being carried by their team to a win so they can jump in another tank to do the same. That causes gameplay to be unpredictable/suck.

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Forget about weekend, its late night (in the US) teams that I have to always deal with because 'straya. I played udring the day which is a normal time for the US and i do so much better. There are accually battles on flanks which let people change the match! it's not just 1 team face fucking the other!

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On 23-5-2016 at 7:40 PM, Rexxie said:

Yeah. I can understand theoretically that something like x5 would make an impact, but it's been over 30k games and I'm still not noticing anything. I doubt EU is different from NA in this case, since NA players constantly complain about x5s and stuff too.

Sunday is the day with most players, and x5 weekends also draw extra players more players = more casuals = more idiots

the question is now:

  • More idiots = more defeats? 
  • More idiots = more shit games?

I would 100% say yes too 2, sunday always seem to be awefull in terms of ``good games`` i also have the feeling i loose more, but that can be just bias (on sundat there is certainly (much) more arty, especially after say 21:00 CEST

On 23-5-2016 at 4:27 PM, Snoregasm2 said:

I've found that recently, my weekend W/R has been better than my midweek W/R. Midweek, especially around CW time, you get a lot of 3 man toons from good clans. End up on the wrong side playing solo and you can get rekt easily, without being able to influence the result.

On the weekend, there are more casuals and simultaneously less unica platoons, at least until standard CW times. Hence your impact is increased.

Where you see those then :P

I cant remember the last time i saw a triple unicum platoon, heck, i see at most 1 unicum / day, and even that i doubt (i dont use xvm, but i did ask ppl who do use in the past, and they said its like 1 unicum a day at most, and thats tier 9 mostly)

Unicum platoons seem incredible rare, i know most good clan (tags) but barely ever see a clan pluton, in the past you would meet perhaps once a week a PTS / EFE platoon, but thats years ago, it seems unicums either no longer play or they all play at different times (i mostly play early evening)

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8 minutes ago, GehakteMolen said:

Where you see those then :P

I cant remember the last time i saw a triple unicum platoon, heck, i see at most 1 unicum / day, and even that i doubt (i dont use xvm, but i did ask ppl who do use in the past, and they said its like 1 unicum a day at most, and thats tier 9 mostly)

Unicum platoons seem incredible rare, i know most good clan (tags) but barely ever see a clan pluton, in the past you would meet perhaps once a week a PTS / EFE platoon, but thats years ago, it seems unicums either no longer play or they all play at different times (i mostly play early evening)

I don't have XVM, but when I see a KAZNA platoon, L-FEW platoon or a platoon with a FAME guy in it, I don't really need to check whether they're unicum (or at least unicum recents). You tend to actually get a lot more of the PL clans in platoons though, like lots of WHYME, WHYOU etc.

Go on from 8pm GMT to 11pm GMT on EU2 and there's tonnes of 3 man clan platoons, a lot of them unicum.

Usually if I don't see clantags and I get rekt by a 3 man toon I check their W/Rs after the game. I had one platoon rush me like retards last week and it turned out they were all rerolls accounts, 2 with 70%+ W/R.

Maybe you just don't notice as much in your own 3 man platoons?

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8 minutes ago, Snoregasm2 said:

I don't have XVM, but when I see a KAZNA platoon, L-FEW platoon or a platoon with a FAME guy in it, I don't really need to check whether they're unicum (or at least unicum recents). You tend to actually get a lot more of the PL clans in platoons though, like lots of WHYME, WHYOU etc.

Go on from 8pm GMT to 11pm GMT on EU2 and there's tonnes of 3 man clan platoons, a lot of them unicum.

Usually if I don't see clantags and I get rekt by a 3 man toon I check their W/Rs after the game. I had one platoon rush me like retards last week and it turned out they were all rerolls accounts, 2 with 70%+ W/R.

Maybe you just don't notice as much in your own 3 man platoons?

I guess its time difference, you play later as i do, guess that makes the difference

Im also not playing that much platoon (unlike what you seem to think ^^ ), i especially hardly ever play triple platoon (1 day / week perhaps) 

http://jaj22.org.uk/wotstats.html

  • 37% solo
  • 33% 2-man
  • 30% triple platoon

Which is roughly right (the solo seems a bit high and 2 man a bit low but its more or less ``fine`` i think

ps: i did meet QB 2 times last month, dunno if that counts for something :P

ps ps: i do meet blue yolo platoons like once a day, especially if i play for a longer time, but unless they tryhard red line camp while spamming gold ammo because they saw that on stream, im not bother much by them either, all it requires is some effort

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So I guess the question is whether or not variability in the presence of tomatoes/potatoes affects player performance or impact on the game (a.k.a. player agency). I.E., if you and 14 tomatoes played 15 tomatoes, would you perform better on average than if you and 14 greens played 15 greens?

Would be an interesting thought exercise to try and think of the ways that teammates' behaviors affect your agency in the game. I'd think that the increased volatility of the games (i.e. increased number of facerolls, roflstomps, due to more tomatoes) would be harmful. If you're used to pulling 3k games every day, I think the increased variability in outcomes could be interpreted as a net negative.

Surely there's some statistical method to test this idea?

That said, I think that if the other team has more below-average players, they will be at a disadvantage (duh), so it's a net benefit if you are an above-average player. Put another way, 14 tomatoes will make fewer total mistakes than 15 tomatoes, so it would probably benefit someone who is good at capitalizing on those mistakes (as a high-level player of this game probably is).

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4 hours ago, turkeybone said:

Surely there's some statistical method to test this idea?

Well, tier expected winrates are a solid practical proof that playing with terrible players substantially increases your winrate.

However, weekends may also have a higher proportion of platoons. Because platoons are strongly skill-aliased (good players play with other good players), this increases team skill variance even if average skill is unchanged. A reduction of personal influence in the 10-20% range is plausible, with the theoretical maximum (all triple platoons) at 42%.

It's also possible that individual player variance increases strongly at weekends, although most plausible causes for that (eg alcohol) would also decrease average skill, which is typically a stronger effect in the other direction.

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50 minutes ago, RichardNixon said:

Because platoons are strongly skill-aliased (good players play with other good players), this increases team skill variance even if average skill is unchanged. A reduction of personal influence in the 10-20% range is plausible, with the theoretical maximum (all triple platoons) at 42%.

Thanks for the reply. Several questions:

How do you determine "personal influence", i.e. what metric(s)? Expected WN given different team compositions?

Is an increase in team skill variance correlated with a reduction in personal influence?

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1 hour ago, turkeybone said:

How do you determine "personal influence", i.e. what metric(s)? Expected WN given different team compositions?

Personal influence is the relationship between personal contribution (damage, frags etc) and expected winrates. Consider the example of a 50v50 game: A player's contribution (damage, frags etc) would be similar to a 15v15 game, but their influence would be far smaller. Both good and bad players would have average winrates close to 50%.

As another example, a tier 8 player would have far lower influence in a tier 10 than a tier 8 battle, assuming that their contribution didn't vary.

 

1 hour ago, turkeybone said:

Is an increase in team skill variance correlated with a reduction in personal influence?

They're directly related in the model. Essentially, winrate is a result of personal contribution vs the team performance distribution.

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19 hours ago, RichardNixon said:

They're directly related in the model. Essentially, winrate is a result of personal contribution vs the team performance distribution.

 

Makes sense. So if you hold team average skill constant while looking at high or low skill variance on a given team (e.g. all yellows vs even numbers of reds, yellows, greens, etc.), how does that affect winrate?

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4 minutes ago, turkeybone said:

Makes sense. So if you hold team average skill constant while looking at high or low skill variance on a given team (e.g. all yellows vs even numbers of reds, yellows, greens, etc.), how does that affect winrate?

What, like whether a low-variance team is more or less effective than a high-variance team with the same mean performance? No idea. The model assumes that you can simply add up the average contribution of each player to get a "team strength" value. This may not be strictly true, although the difference is likely to be small. I'm not even sure whether a high-variance team would be a good or bad thing.

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Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. The OP's question was about weekend teams. If a "weekend" team drives a higher variance in player skill, and a higher variance in player skill is correlated with a reduction in player influence, or an impact on player winrate, than weekend teams could really be "a thing"...

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