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WoT matchmaker conspiracy theory

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Admin from Naval Action made a post where he states:

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World of tanks even has a patented balancer mechanic (US patent filed in march 2013) to not let you win too much. (War thunder as well). If your win rate goes higher than 55% they start pushing you into unwinnable battles or placing you on the side with extremely low win rates - keeping all players on 50% artificially (most fun). If your win rate goes down below 45% they push you to top of the list and start placing you on teams with high win chance.

This isn't the first time I've read this or heard about ramblings on some YT channel or blog. As far as my memory serves me claims like these have either been refuted or ignored as crazy talk.

This guy used to work at WG, so him saying it gave me pause.

I want to tell him he's wrong but my feet are unsteady and I don't know how to argue that case, much less "prove" it.

halp!

My first instinct was to turn to the collective knowledge on wotlabs.

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33 minutes ago, Sapros said:

Makes sense. Otherwise there'd be people solopubbing close to 70% w/r in certain tanks. 

Oh wait.

  

These are very few superhuman people especially in some certain tanks. Maybe it's true but there are limitation on how rigged it can get. Can't keep putting one of these guys with 14 reds all the time. We've been hearing about this patented MM for many years now. There were many pages documents leaked some years ago. It has to have some basis. 

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5 minutes ago, Haswell said:

Let's assume MM is indeed rigged. If that is the case, then how do people manage to maintain below 45% or above 55%? The argument of the MM normalizing ALL players at 45-55% thus fails.

So simple, so obvious.

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This patent was debunked way back in 2013. Also: in said patent weren't there like 4 versions of the mm? If it's implemented - by gathering data it would be noticeable which one is used.

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Yes WG proposed multiple versions of the MM in the patent, and actually if you read it, the 'manipulation' bit that all the tinfoil hat people jump on is very very minor, its a proposal to basically give you slightly easier MM if you have lost a lot or harder MM if you have won a lot in a row.  Which is actually the opposite of what rigged-MM complainers claim is happening, they claim WG is making them lose and they have all these loss streaks, but actually according to the patent the game should be giving them easier MM if they are having loss streaks, but clearly isn't.

The majority of the patent talks about vehicle weighting and tiers and using that to create challenges and easier times for players, which is pretty obvious, get top tier stomp people, get bottom tier get stomped by people, which creates enough replayability and 'challenge' on its own.

I'd also presume the guy worked at WG NA yeh? Even if that was true, what does NA know about the intricate details of how the game works, that is all done in Minsk, none of the regional offices deal with development so how would he know anyway, he was likely some community manager or something. 

As said above we have people who have pushed like 70% solo win rates and have had 20 plus game win streaks, so it honestly makes nonsense of claims its trying to normalise win rates. 

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I'll save every one some trouble: if WG did manipulate the MM there's no way you'd ever know unless they did it so badly it was obvious to everyone. The amount of confounding variables and the sheer variety of ways in which they could manipulate the MM to get the result they want make it impossible without literally running a statistical experiment involving thousands and thousand of test games. If they did it in a way to cover their tracks even that wouldn't prove anything. They could tweak your win rate a few percentage points easy and there would be no way to know.

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what this circumstantial piece of suspision fails to realise is that 90% of the playerbase are coinflip players

they even out at 50-ish but their performance varies much more on game to game bases. There is no matchmaker in the world that can foresee how you are going to play your game out unless you play every game identically so it's one hundred percent absolute bullshit that the matchmaker acts this way, even if they have a patent for it there is nothing saying it ever was implemented and you would notice

the pubbie has a shit game, then a good one, then a mediocre one and the cycle continues, how is a matchmaker going to place you anywhere close to accurately when their gameplay is too unpredictable to make anything out of but that in the very end, they're close to 50

 

easily debunked too just run xvm and print every lineup for 100 games and check how the WN8/WR stats on teams align depending on winning streaks

make a script that does this automatically and you can just spam it forever, i'm heavily inclined to believe that this is absolute bs from someone completely unqualified to talk about it but just happens to be in a position where people listen

 

 

... i do believe that i would feel a difference playing on my old account with highest stats on server vs someone i boosted, but i honestly never did despite the discrepancy in stats, while focus is pretty different mm is always the same and its behaviour really depends on the active queue more than anything else

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The easiest way to debunk conspiracy shenanigans - even without touching statistics, unpredictable pubbies and such - is to simply state that WG allows you to save replays and track your stats. There would be no point in doing this if they're out to make sure you can't perform in a certain way, for better or worse.

However, it would be very noticeable if they did manipulate anything relating to your WR since you have thousands of tracked games and replays.

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Could be true, maybe (probably) not. The thing with random (randomly selected players) is that it can give you two shitty matchups in a row, because it's random and it's not like hey lets give this guy a good game now. I think it's Spotify that had to implement a less random shuffle because people complained about getting the same song twice.

Most games are pretty evenly matched. You have mostly average players who don't significantly contribute positively or negatively to the outcome of the match, they're neither good or bad. Yeah they'll have an occasional good or bad game, but it isn't consistent at all. Consistency is what separates someone good/bad from someone average. Take someone with 45%, they're consistently in the wrong place, doing the wrong thing, and if they're in an important vehicle it puts the whole team at a disadvantage because what if this is the guy that should be holding a flank or pushing? Then you take someone with 60%, they're consistently in the right place at (usually) the right time, and again if they're in an important vehicle this swings things in their teams favor.

TLDR - the point I'm making is that if you're good or bad, you will consistently influence the outcome.

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That patent has been going around for literally years. Even back then when it was first revealed there was literally zero workable evidence to prove that it actually existed. (And IIRC all it did was place you top tier if you were losing and bottom if you were winning) 

 

The MM has been rewritten several times since then. I feel we can quite completely discredit this patent for being a thing especially in 2019.

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14 hours ago, Kolni said:

what this circumstantial piece of suspision fails to realise is that 90% of the playerbase are coinflip players

they even out at 50-ish but their performance varies much more on game to game bases. There is no matchmaker in the world that can foresee how you are going to play your game out unless you play every game identically so it's one hundred percent absolute bullshit that the matchmaker acts this way, even if they have a patent for it there is nothing saying it ever was implemented and you would notice

the pubbie has a shit game, then a good one, then a mediocre one and the cycle continues, how is a matchmaker going to place you anywhere close to accurately when their gameplay is too unpredictable to make anything out of but that in the very end, they're close to 50

 

easily debunked too just run xvm and print every lineup for 100 games and check how the WN8/WR stats on teams align depending on winning streaks

make a script that does this automatically and you can just spam it forever, i'm heavily inclined to believe that this is absolute bs from someone completely unqualified to talk about it but just happens to be in a position where people listen

 

 

... i do believe that i would feel a difference playing on my old account with highest stats on server vs someone i boosted, but i honestly never did despite the discrepancy in stats, while focus is pretty different mm is always the same and its behaviour really depends on the active queue more than anything else

You kinda low key said WR is luck on that post. 

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The point I'm really trying to make is that there's not even an objective basis to start with to determine if there's manipulation occurring. If the EPA wants to prove a company is dumping its runoff into a lake it can test the lake and find the Mercury levels are 14 times normal. In tanks, win rate changes due to a million variables including changes to the game. There was a time I could grab any old shit tank in tier 4 or 5 with a 75% crew and still win 60%+ solo. Those times are long gone. Grinding through a shit tank now it's not at all uncommon to finish with a win rate of 50% or even worse. A lot has changed since then: vision control died, gold ammo was added and is now spammed like crazy, accuracy is different, maps have changed to remove powerful positions, the game has been made way more shitlord friendly in general. In that environment where you have no consistent baseline and many explanations for changes in win rate it's literally not possible to determine if manipulation is occurring.

The subject is actually kind of stupid now, because they've "rigged" the game right in front of every one. Fact is the changes to the game have caused a lot of win rates to drop, it's part of why so many people have quit playing. And there are still people putting on tinfoil hats even though it's been done right in the open. It's like how every one thinks the "global elites" are engaged in conspiracies. Why the fuck would they need conspiracies when they're taking everything right in front of our faces and people keep voting to make it happen?

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at the end of the day i really dont care if its rigged tbh lmao, if someone is good enough to win >60% then they'll still win with this conspiracy

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On 8/31/2019 at 6:37 PM, Jesse_the_Scout said:

The point I'm really trying to make is that there's not even an objective basis to start with to determine if there's manipulation occurring. If the EPA wants to prove a company is dumping its runoff into a lake it can test the lake and find the Mercury levels are 14 times normal. In tanks, win rate changes due to a million variables including changes to the game. There was a time I could grab any old shit tank in tier 4 or 5 with a 75% crew and still win 60%+ solo. Those times are long gone. Grinding through a shit tank now it's not at all uncommon to finish with a win rate of 50% or even worse. A lot has changed since then: vision control died, gold ammo was added and is now spammed like crazy, accuracy is different, maps have changed to remove powerful positions, the game has been made way more shitlord friendly in general. In that environment where you have no consistent baseline and many explanations for changes in win rate it's literally not possible to determine if manipulation is occurring.

The subject is actually kind of stupid now, because they've "rigged" the game right in front of every one. Fact is the changes to the game have caused a lot of win rates to drop, it's part of why so many people have quit playing. And there are still people putting on tinfoil hats even though it's been done right in the open. It's like how every one thinks the "global elites" are engaged in conspiracies. Why the fuck would they need conspiracies when they're taking everything right in front of our faces and people keep voting to make it happen?

There's a pretty significant difference between rigging the MM and being fucking dumb with balancing vehicles and maps. 

WG are not so much rigging towards your WR as they are changing the game to milk money from customers. Whereas the previously huge and growing playerbase could sustain a pretty fair game, the rapidly dwindling playerbase cannot, and thus WG must prioritize their actions: Should they make sure the low level grind is fun and balanced (and let's be honest, that's been garbage since Day 1) or should they push everyone and their mother into tier 8-10, aka the end-game, where people have to spend money?

They chose the latter and I was just fortunate enough to have had enough of RNG before it went to complete shit. There's still no reason for them to engage in some pubbie conspiracy about WR consistency, simply because consistency is only interesting to people who give a shit about the game, which the average player doesn't. WG aims squarely at people who do not give a shit and are just there for fun and games, which is also why their playerbase has been so remarkably shit and conspiracy-prone since Beta.

It's just slowly getting to a point where WG has to do gacha-tier shenanigans to milk the last dollars before entering maintenance mode. I'm too far out of the loop to know if maintenance mode is 1, 2 or 3 years away but it'll surely be coming. There's a reason why WG has gone from pretty much only WoT to having 10 games running, they knew what was coming in due time. Sure, some are mobile or other versions of existing games but they do hold a potentially powerful IP in MoO if they manage to make a good version of it.

Basically, WoT is 10 years old and it's time to move on. Whether you can hold out until the servers shut down or leave due to gacha mechanics and the balance consequences of those (such as removal of weakspots to enforce gold spam), is up to you. However, it's highly unlikely WG will revert to anything resembling the good old days if they don't get a massive spike in players.

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