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Corona Virus vs WotLabs Community Megathread

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38 minutes ago, FlorbFnarb said:

Agreed.  Although I thought COVID-19 was the name of the virus in this case, this specific coronavirus.

SARS, MERS, Bat-CoV... Anything with a CoV is basically coronavirus. COVID-19 was referring as the disease brought by SARS-CoV-2 (2019 nCoV). CoronaVirus Disease 19 is still an oversimplification in my opinion. Only the 19 is unique. Corona virus disease is not something worthy to have an acronym, if they named it right, it should not even have the word "Corona" in it.

But it is what it is. I still call it WARS (Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome) anyway. I am from HK and thats what we do. :minidoge:

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11 minutes ago, Unavailebow said:

SARS, MERS, Bat-CoV... Anything with a CoV is basically coronavirus. COVID-19 was referring as the disease brought by SARS-CoV-2 (2019 nCoV). CoronaVirus Disease 19 is still an oversimplification in my opinion. Only the 19 is unique. Corona virus disease is not something worthy to have an acronym, if they named it right, it should not even have the word "Corona" in it.

But it is what it is. I still call it WARS (Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome) anyway. I am from HK and thats what we do. :minidoge:

I heard you guys called the alarm pretty quick and restricted entry to the island.  Is that the case?

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You heard wrong, we still haven't. Government is being fucking useless and insists closing borders to mainland China is "racist".

Bunch of wankers.

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10 minutes ago, Haswell said:

You heard wrong, we still haven't. Government is being fucking useless and insists closing borders to mainland China is "racist".

Bunch of wankers.

...They're saying it would be racist for Chinese to close the borders to the rest of the Chinese mainland?  What the actual fuck.

Then again, sometimes I forget that you guys' city government is rather beholden to the national government.  I'm really hoping for the best for you guys; you're on the front lines in some important ways.

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2 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

Agreed.  Although I thought COVID-19 was the name of the virus in this case, this specific coronavirus.

Honestly as a non-doctor the first time I remember ever hearing of a disease and its pathogen being given separate names that made into public consciousness was AIDS and HIV.  AIDS was the term everybody heard first, then after a while people learned HIV is the virus, you might contract it and not develop the disease AIDS, etc.

 

Same with all this SARS stuff - there's multiple pathogens causing SARS.

It all becomes overly complicated, which is why I think sometimes just using common names simplifies things for most people.

Uhm, that’s not unusual. Many if not most diseases have different names for the pathogen and the disease. Chickenpox is caused by the varicella-zoster virus. Lyme disease isn’t caused by Borrelia burgdorferi. Syphilis is caused by Tremonema pallidum. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever by Rickettsia rickettsii, valley fever by coccidioidomyces... you get my point. I could go on. 

Of course hepatitis C is caused by the HepC virus, and polio by the poliovirus, and Herpes by the herpesvirus. Pneumocystis pneumonia is caused by ... surprise, pneumocystis jirocivii, and cytomegalovirus disease by cytomegalovirus.

 

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On 3/23/2020 at 6:37 PM, kariverson said:

Anyway like I mentioned it's much harder to do research now as there are way too many fear mongering results. I can't even find how many people die normally in Italy every day lol.

Any search on "Italy demographics" will give you that.
62 million population, 10.5 deaths per 1000 people per year (2018), so 1790 deaths on an average day.
There were 919 deaths yesterday, or 50% increase in mortality. That seems significant enough to me. Yes, most of those people were elderly and sick, and probably significant part of them would have died over the next decade or so, but most likely very few of them would have died right now. 

 

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2 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

I heard you guys called the alarm pretty quick and restricted entry to the island.  Is that the case?

Absolutely not. We never have lockdown and all border closed. If you think our gov should be given credits, that is because they took credits from us the public. We knew the virus since January, land border to China were only started closing on Feb, if not one by one or two by two, there is always a border left open. I cannot count how many border they have made through that small joint of the peninsula, basically if mainland Chinese want to go in, they do it as they wish.

Eventually they did restricted entry (a week or two ago, lol) only allowing HK residence to entry. Oh if you happen to have a Chinese passport you can get in too!

It is funny because the gov used to tell us not to stock up mask, then they follow WHO (lol) instruction telling us only wear it if you are sick, now they make sure everybody knows you should wear it if you are going to public spaces. Believing in our gov can give you interesting consequences if not potentially fatal.:microdoge: 

1 hour ago, sr360 said:

Uhm, that’s not unusual. Many if not most diseases have different names for the pathogen and the disease. Chickenpox is caused by the varicella-zoster virus. Lyme disease isn’t caused by Borrelia burgdorferi. Syphilis is caused by Tremonema pallidum. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever by Rickettsia rickettsii, valley fever by coccidioidomyces... you get my point. I could go on. 

I get it. But is it common to put a year number behind a virus branch and call it a disease?

1 hour ago, FlorbFnarb said:

...They're saying it would be racist for Chinese to close the borders to the rest of the Chinese mainland?  What the actual fuck.

Then again, sometimes I forget that you guys' city government is rather beholden to the national government.  I'm really hoping for the best for you guys; you're on the front lines in some important ways.

They say “We are a family” when they want our masks. Then they also don’t mind having us and TW on our own when we have worse statistics. Simple.

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1 hour ago, isterija said:

Any search on "Italy demographics" will give you that.
62 million population, 10.5 deaths per 1000 people per year (2018), so 1790 deaths on an average day.
There were 919 deaths yesterday, or 50% increase in mortality. That seems significant enough to me. Yes, most of those people were elderly and sick, and probably significant part of them would have died over the next decade or so, but most likely very few of them would have died right now. 

 

Those 919 are not extra, not added on the people that die each day. But they are included. Everyone that dies that has a trace of the virus in their blood is counted towards coronas deaths. But they would had died from any other season flu as well. 

A very decorated microbiologist here shares a different point of view and straight up says that the virus is not the cause of death but the underlying issues are. Something our local WotLabs doctor called "unequivocally, 100%, unadulterated bullshit."

 

 

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22 minutes ago, kariverson said:

Those 919 are not extra, not added on the people that die each day. But they are included. Everyone that dies that has a trace of the virus in their blood is counted towards coronas deaths. But they would had died from any other season flu as well. 

If you are claiming that everyone who has died from COVID-19 was so sick they would have died within days anyway, you will need to provide a damn good source to support that assertion.

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2 hours ago, sr360 said:

Uhm, that’s not unusual. Many if not most diseases have different names for the pathogen and the disease. Chickenpox is caused by the varicella-zoster virus. Lyme disease isn’t caused by Borrelia burgdorferi. Syphilis is caused by Tremonema pallidum. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever by Rickettsia rickettsii, valley fever by coccidioidomyces... you get my point. I could go on. 

Of course hepatitis C is caused by the HepC virus, and polio by the poliovirus, and Herpes by the herpesvirus. Pneumocystis pneumonia is caused by ... surprise, pneumocystis jirocivii, and cytomegalovirus disease by cytomegalovirus.

 

Right, I was just talking about the public consciousness of it.  Most people just know "chickenpox" and have no idea what the name of the virus is.

54 minutes ago, kariverson said:

Those 919 are not extra, not added on the people that die each day. But they are included. Everyone that dies that has a trace of the virus in their blood is counted towards coronas deaths. But they would had died from any other season flu as well. 

A very decorated microbiologist here shares a different point of view and straight up says that the virus is not the cause of death but the underlying issues are. Something our local WotLabs doctor called "unequivocally, 100%, unadulterated bullshit."

 

 

Yeah, I get it, most people who are neither old nor immunosuppressed nor already suffering a respiratory disease don't die from it.  However, so what?  That's true of most diseases.  There aren't many diseases that kill most of their victims but are also virulent; if there were, there wouldn't be 7 billion of us around.  Even the Black Plague "only" killed a third of Europe.

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2 hours ago, kariverson said:

A very decorated microbiologist here shares a different point of view and straight up says that the virus is not the cause of death but the underlying issues are. Something our local WotLabs doctor called "unequivocally, 100%, unadulterated bullshit."

Isn't that along a similar line to saying it was the concussion / fireball that flattened Hiroshima, not the nuclear bomb.

 

footnote, What are you trying to achieve by pushing the "This isn't as serious as everyone is saying line."

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2 hours ago, NightmareMk9 said:

It looks like almost 100,000 new cases world wide in the last 24 hours.  That does NOT seem good...

Knowing only a smidgen about statistics myself, I know that some of that is going to be improved testing, and I wonder if it's possible to mathematically (roughly) determine how much of that rise is an actual increase, and how much is due to the manufacture of more tests?

The mathematical questions involved in this sort of thing are beginning to interest me.

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13 minutes ago, Wanderjar said:

Way over my head, but it does look like something of a delay between the day of interventions and the day infections level off, with another delay between that and the day hospitalizations drop off.

So does that mean there's a statistical method to look at current data and estimate how much of current increases in reported infections is due to more testing and how much reflects an actual increase?

I've once or twice seen people raise the possibility that more people might have already been exposed than we had thought, which would imply a much lower fatality rate from the disease.  Is that statistically calculable from present data, or would we have to randomly test a large sample of people to see who had antibodies for the virus?

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12 minutes ago, Wanderjar said:

there's like 8 strains now? so reinfection is a real possibility

Had no idea about that.

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7 hours ago, kariverson said:

Those 919 are not extra, not added on the people that die each day. But they are included. Everyone that dies that has a trace of the virus in their blood is counted towards coronas deaths. But they would had died from any other season flu as well. 

A very decorated microbiologist here shares a different point of view and straight up says that the virus is not the cause of death but the underlying issues are. Something our local WotLabs doctor called "unequivocally, 100%, unadulterated bullshit."

 

 

Ah, some random internet dude says that COVID-19 is overblown and doesn't cause death by itself. His work, is (a) not peer-reviewed, (b) been criticized heavily (see links) and (c) discordant with the vast majority of published literature. For example, here.

Once again: my medical degree trumps your google search. Now GTFO before I ban you for being an insufferable git spreading baseless conspiracy theories in the midst of a pandemic.

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34 minutes ago, sr360 said:

He’s wrong. He’s a lab scientist not a clinician. 

Rrawr! Claws in pussy-cat. I know not everything done in lab conditions translate to clinical practice, but just because he's a lab scientist doesn't mean he should be dismissed out of hand either (although I will agree that he's almost certainly wrong to say that Covid-19 itself will not be capable of being attributed as the cause of death in any cases).

Let's be real - some people are going to be dying because Covid-19 sufficiently weakens their immune and other systems so that something else ends up finishing them off and being the actual 'cause of death'. Some people are going to die because Covid-19 does the typical respiratory tract illness thing, and kill people as their lungs stop working properly. As we're in the middle of this crap right now and people likely aren't being especially careful about recording the cause of death (particularly in places like Italy or China), I doubt we will get a good handle on this until well after the fact.

For the record before you get too tetchy: my sister is a medical practitioner and a clinician (what you'd call 'front line' in this current crisis). My dad is a microbiologist specialist in virology (background is all lab work) who heads up a pathogen safety division for a large multinational biotech firm. They talk about this kind of crap, including lab v clinical all the time.

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16 minutes ago, Balthazars said:

Rrawr! Claws in pussy-cat. I know not everything done in lab conditions translate to clinical practice, but just because he's a lab scientist doesn't mean he should be dismissed out of hand either (although I will agree that he's almost certainly wrong to say that Covid-19 itself will not be capable of being attributed as the cause of death in any cases).

Let's be real - some people are going to be dying because Covid-19 sufficiently weakens their immune and other systems so that something else ends up finishing them off and being the actual 'cause of death'. Some people are going to die because Covid-19 does the typical respiratory tract illness thing, and kill people as their lungs stop working properly. As we're in the middle of this crap right now and people likely aren't being especially careful about recording the cause of death (particularly in places like Italy or China), I doubt we will get a good handle on this until well after the fact.

For the record before you get too tetchy: my sister is a medical practitioner and a clinician (what you'd call 'front line' in this current crisis). My dad is a microbiologist specialist in virology (background is all lab work) who heads up a pathogen safety division for a large multinational biotech firm. They talk about this kind of crap, including lab v clinical all the time.

I understand, note my edited post. I did a more detailed response -- it seems this guy is basically an outlier, sort of like the rare climatologist who is also a climate denier. His posts are also not peer-reviewed.

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