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Corona Virus vs WotLabs Community Megathread

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I've had people show me graphs - haven't investigated, but they make sense - showing that travel bans, etc., do less than social distancing.  Which makes sense, because a travel ban (country to country, state to state, town to town, etc.) prevent transmission between groups while social distancing prevents transmission within groups.

But of course, it isn't an either-or thing, and having travel bans as well is going to help, especially travel from countries known to have a bad outbreak.

Re: "just the flu."  IANAD, but no.  Sure, it also isn't the Black Plague and we aren't going to see a third of civilization dead.  But I'm hearing the Wuhan virus as something like 5x-10x the mortality rate of the seasonal flu, so it comes down to ensuring that we don't have anything like the number of cases of flu we annually have if we want to keep deaths low.

It takes time to build up enough numbers of people that have been exposed and developed immunity for the herd immunity phenomenon to kick in, and it has to be slow in order to keep the number of sick who need hospitalization low enough to not overwhelm facilities.  If I heard right, car companies are volunteering to build respirators, so it's being taken seriously.

A lot of stores here are closing for two weeks.  Not all, some small businesses are staying open, but that's less of a risk because you don't get large numbers of people gathering in those places.  Grocery stores are some of the worst places to get large numbers of people in a confined space, but then they're the one store that can't shut down under any circumstances.

To be honest the pucker factor is highest in NYC and environs; I have a brother and a sister in law living in northern New Jersey, and it's tense.  The NYC megalopolis is the one place in the country where large numbers of people are dependent upon traveling in metal tubes - subways, trains, buses - in close confines with other humans.

So no, it isn't the Black Plague, but no, it isn't just the seasonal flu.  Maybe it'll only feel like that for some people who get it, but that 5x-10x the death rate means something around 1% deaths - and from what I hear, Italy is a lot worse off because of their aged population: second highest average age in the world, second only to Japan.

Do we have any Japanese members?  Their population is old but the only thing I ever heard about Japan was they shut all schools down a good month ago.  Did their giant mecha literally stomp all the viruses dead?

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20 hours ago, Assassin7 said:

NZ is two Islands in the South pacific. our closest neighbour is Australia which is a 3 hour flight away.

Assuming we had no cases in the first place, closing our borders to ALL non NZ residents, and properly quarantining the relatively low number of residents coming back home from abroad as they are currently allowed to do before all passenger air traffic is halted which is currently planned, would be pretty effective in assuring we would never get any cases.

I get it.

But if you look at the developing timelines... you "stated 2-3 weeks ago" and it may have partially worked then with other isolation measures.

However, the public or government would never have embraced those policies then.  Hindsight is a wonderful thing but remember its only been 10 days since the WHO declared it a pandemic, and we still have people who believe its the "flu" and its not a big deal.

I my case its only been 15 days since my province had its first documented case and as of two or three days ago we had completed more testing than the entire US.

 

Not sure if its been posted but it may help anyone trying to keep situationally aware.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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1 hour ago, FlorbFnarb said:

5x-10x the death rate means something around 1% deaths - and from what I hear, Italy is a lot worse off because of their aged population: second highest average age in the world, second only to Japan.

 

Yeah no, You need to educate yourself.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Start there.

edit: To clarify, this is something that is going to effect nearly everyone in some form. We should all be educating ourselveson what is coming and how to best prepare.

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welp 4 confirmed as of yesterday in my county in FL so looks like my ass is now on lockdown since im in the at risk bracket for this thing to end up killing me. glad for my steam library and my sim racing.

 

stay safe everyone!.and lets get through this all together.

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1 hour ago, FlorbFnarb said:

So no, it isn't the Black Plague, but no, it isn't just the seasonal flu.  Maybe it'll only feel like that for some people who get it, but that 5x-10x the death rate means something around 1% deaths - and from what I hear, Italy is a lot worse off because of their aged population: second highest average age in the world, second only to Japan.

Death rates are tricky.  We wont know the "approximate" death rates until its over.  Public Health and medical system differences, infection rates, mitigation procedures etc. all will play a part.

Early on I "heard" 1 in 100k for the seasonal flu and Covid-19 was 1 in 10k.  That is a significant difference.

Currently, Italy is at 4k deaths from 47k confirmed infections.  Compare that to Germany at 68 deaths from 20k confirmed infections.  That also is a significant difference.

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There is also multiple strains of the virus now, some may be more lethal

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Meanwhile, people in HK are rolling their eyes at the Western world, because we already knew this would happen 2 months ago.

Wear your masks people. Despite being right next to Wuhan and ridiculously slow to close borders, the number of infected in HK are still far lower than other nations, primarily because everybody learned how effective masks and basic hygiene are when dealing with infectious diseases after SARS. People in Honk are still running around the streets while maintaining a low infection rate, to put things into perspective.

No, a mask won't make you completely immune, but it helps a lot when the primary transmission of the virus is through airborne droplets. Having some protection is a fuck ton better than having no protection at all.

Filthy gaijin. :doge:

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17 minutes ago, Haswell said:

Meanwhile, people in HK are rolling their eyes at the Western world, because we already knew this would happen 2 months ago.

Wear your masks people. Despite being right next to Wuhan and ridiculously slow to close borders, the number of infected in HK are still far lower than other nations, primarily because everybody learned how effective masks and basic hygiene are when dealing with infectious diseases after SARS. People in Honk are still running around the streets while maintaining a low infection rate, to put things into perspective.

No, a mask won't make you completely immune, but it helps a lot when the primary transmission of the virus is through airborne droplets. Having some protection is a fuck ton better than having no protection at all.

Filthy gaijin. :doge:

They would have done the same if they didn't sold us all the masks they now wanted.

Totally not stocking over 500 masks for my family

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My relatives are helping to develop those reusable masks, so far they look pretty fancy.

I still have my reservations though, but better those than nothing.

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No masks available here, they are all for health care workers. I do see a bunch of perfectly fit people in the shops that clearly bought them up beforehand (despite government orders to now donate them to doctors, nurses, and people working in retirement homes).

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9 hours ago, 8_Hussars said:

Death rates are tricky.  We wont know the "approximate" death rates until its over.  Public Health and medical system differences, infection rates, mitigation procedures etc. all will play a part.

Early on I "heard" 1 in 100k for the seasonal flu and Covid-19 was 1 in 10k.  That is a significant difference.

Currently, Italy is at 4k deaths from 47k confirmed infections.  Compare that to Germany at 68 deaths from 20k confirmed infections.  That also is a significant difference.

One of Italy's issues is the age of their population; second oldest in the world, beaten only by Japan.

There were also other errors: I read about a mayor that told people "go hug a Chinese person" to "combat racism" or something, when everybody should have been avoiding close contact with others.

Also, IIRC Italy was slow to close entry from China.  I do hope other EU nations with fewer infected people are helping Italy out in this - accepting infected people into isolated intensive care wards, having volunteer doctors and nurses help out in Italy, and so forth.  If Germany has so few deaths from half the cases, it sounds like they might have some excess capacity they could loan.

10 hours ago, simba90 said:

Yeah no, You need to educate yourself.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Start there.

edit: To clarify, this is something that is going to effect nearly everyone in some form. We should all be educating ourselveson what is coming and how to best prepare.

I'm not sure exactly what I said that you're disagreeing with.

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Random thought but this will make a fascinating study in how societies react to such events given modern communication etc. esp when compared to how Spanish flu went down.

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Oh yeah.  We have something like three times the population at least here in the US, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if after-analysis finds out that the disease is inherently about as deadly as the Spanish Flu, but that modern methods of medicine and communication radically reduced the death toll.

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Naturally the improvements in health care etc. will have made a huge difference and all, but I've never experienced the social outrage expressed just from images of people gathering. I just hope my news feeds aren't so filtered by fb et al that the message isn't 'socially distanced' from those that need to be aware of this shit yet seem oblivious.

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42 minutes ago, FlorbFnarb said:

One of Italy's issues is the age of their population; second oldest in the world, beaten only by Japan.

There were also other errors: I read about a mayor that told people "go hug a Chinese person" to "combat racism" or something, when everybody should have been avoiding close contact with others.

Also, IIRC Italy was slow to close entry from China.  I do hope other EU nations with fewer infected people are helping Italy out in this - accepting infected people into isolated intensive care wards, having volunteer doctors and nurses help out in Italy, and so forth.  If Germany has so few deaths from half the cases, it sounds like they might have some excess capacity they could loan.

I'm not sure exactly what I said that you're disagreeing with.

It was started from the anti-racism gathering, whoever lead it caught corona. Exact date I forget, but it was around the time where we (HK) heard Wuhan has 5million people fled before lockdown, obviously not made it into the English media yet.

But Italy was not the first European country to have Corona cases, it was either le France or the Brits, import cases, earlier than the said gathering. They had it around the same time we first had it.

29 minutes ago, Ezz said:

Naturally the improvements in health care etc. will have made a huge difference and all, but I've never experienced the social outrage expressed just from images of people gathering. I just hope my news feeds aren't so filtered by fb et al that the message isn't 'socially distanced' from those that need to be aware of this shit yet seem oblivious.

Cannot rely on only one or two channels, has to be multiple. FB we almost ditched it thanks to the protest, it is flood with fake news and the older generation have no sense of fact checking. Even whatsapps are full of craps.

Soical distancing is not a cut for us, we reduced the number of social events but no matter how their are still a lot. Just got local infection cases from SOHO, they had fun drinking. Whether people choose to follow or not is entirely down to their own awareness and individual sense of responsibility. I wear a mask to stop my droplets going everywhere, not to keep myself clean from the outside.

44 minutes ago, FlorbFnarb said:

Oh yeah.  We have something like three times the population at least here in the US, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if after-analysis finds out that the disease is inherently about as deadly as the Spanish Flu, but that modern methods of medicine and communication radically reduced the death toll.

I would pay my attention to social / community efforts and effects more so than centralised, government or official efforts, that is the result of Information Era and fast communication, whereas taking it to the officials are much slower even a lot of resources has made online, you still have people that are uncontrollable. Control through social stress, is so much easier.

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1 hour ago, Unavailebow said:

It was started from the anti-racism gathering, whoever lead it caught corona. Exact date I forget, but it was around the time where we (HK) heard Wuhan has 5million people fled before lockdown, obviously not made it into the English media yet.

Yeah, if I remember right there was some Italian town where the mayor was more worried about racism and told people "go hug a Chinese person to fight racism", which obviously shows he wasn't taking it seriously.  I mean, it isn't really racist to not want to go hugging somebody coming directly from a country facing a pandemic; disease knows no race and will jump from one person to another, good intentions notwithstanding.

1 hour ago, Unavailebow said:

But Italy was not the first European country to have Corona cases, it was either le France or the Brits, import cases, earlier than the said gathering. They had it around the same time we first had it.

Fair enough.  Italy has the worst death rate by far though, with only Iran reporting higher fatality rates.  Normally I'd dismiss anything coming from a totalitarian government, but I can't see any benefit to them to report HIGHER numbers than are true.

1 hour ago, Unavailebow said:

Cannot rely on only one or two channels, has to be multiple. FB we almost ditched it thanks to the protest, it is flood with fake news and the older generation have no sense of fact checking. Even whatsapps are full of craps.

Agreed.  I don't place a lot of stock in many reported facts until I see them reported by multiple sources and if they remain the consensus.   Otherwise there's too much tendency to have hearsay repeated.

1 hour ago, Unavailebow said:

Soical distancing is not a cut for us, we reduced the number of social events but no matter how their are still a lot. Just got local infection cases from SOHO, they had fun drinking. Whether people choose to follow or not is entirely down to their own awareness and individual sense of responsibility. I wear a mask to stop my droplets going everywhere, not to keep myself clean from the outside.

Agreed.  It hasn't reached that in the US, especially in most states, since (I have to check for more recent figures) the bulk of cases seem to be in Washington State (although I've heard their curve might already be flattening) California, DC, and the New York/New Jersey megalopolis.  If it gets worse though, the rest of us might well reach the stage of wearing masks in public.

1 hour ago, Unavailebow said:

I would pay my attention to social / community efforts and effects more so than centralised, government or official efforts, that is the result of Information Era and fast communication, whereas taking it to the officials are much slower even a lot of resources has made online, you still have people that are uncontrollable. Control through social stress, is so much easier.

Agreed.  I think I mentioned this earlier, but the graphs I was seeing claimed that while closing borders and restricting travel had some effect, the greatest effect came from social distancing.  Most of the businesses I see remaining open have set limits on how many people can be in the store at one time, at least if they're a physically small store.  I'm making sure I do all the grocery shopping for my mother (in her 70s) I got groceries for my brother's in-laws, both of whose children live out of town, and I'm trying to get my aunt and uncle, all of whose kids live out of state, to tell me when they need groceries.

Gotta keep the old folks at home.  Those of us statistically less likely to have issues if we do make contact with the virus should be the ones going out when necessary, and even then at a reduced rate.

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2 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

If it gets worse though, the rest of us might well reach the stage of wearing masks in public.

The whole point of wearing masks is so it doesn't get worse, not the other way round.

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1 hour ago, Haswell said:

The whole point of wearing masks is so it doesn't get worse, not the other way round.

Might be waiting for it bad enough to justify saying it didn't work.:microdoge:

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1 hour ago, Haswell said:

The whole point of wearing masks is so it doesn't get worse, not the other way round.

Right, but I don't think that in most places that most people are going to adopt that as an early measure.

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Re: Masks. There are no masks. People -- my colleagues -- who are in direct contact with COVID-19 patients don't have masks. We have canceled surgeries because we don't have masks. Literally, patients who need transplants can't get them because there are no masks. So, masks may work, but maybe, just maybe we should save them for those who need them.

Also, about 2/3 of those I see wearing masks in public are wearing them wrong.

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10 minutes ago, sr360 said:

Re: Masks. There are no masks. People -- my colleagues -- who are in direct contact with COVID-19 patients don't have masks. We have canceled surgeries because we don't have masks. Literally, patients who need transplants can't get them because there are no masks. So, masks may work, but maybe, just maybe we should save them for those who need them.

Also, about 2/3 of those I see wearing masks in public are wearing them wrong.

Some people are making their own.  I'd have to look, but it seems like I saw somebody saying that in a pinch even a bandanna could contribute to reducing the spread of the virus.

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9 minutes ago, FlorbFnarb said:

Some people are making their own.  I'd have to look, but it seems like I saw somebody saying that in a pinch even a bandanna could contribute to reducing the spread of the virus.

Sure, make your own. Just don't deplete the supply that's needed for the frontline individuals. It's akin to stockpiling ammunition in Kansas when there aren't enough bullets for the soldiers in Okinawa.

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