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Corona Virus vs WotLabs Community Megathread

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9 minutes ago, sr360 said:

Sure, make your own. Just don't deplete the supply that's needed for the frontline individuals. It's akin to stockpiling ammunition in Kansas when there aren't enough bullets for the soldiers in Okinawa.

Makes sense.

10 minutes ago, sr360 said:

Sure, make your own. Just don't deplete the supply that's needed for the frontline individuals. It's akin to stockpiling ammunition in Kansas when there aren't enough bullets for the soldiers in Okinawa.

Also, you're probably gonna trigger any Marines that saw you say "soldiers", but apparently there were four Army divisions on Okinawa to only three Marine divisions.

Gotta tweak the crayon-eaters when I can.  :awyeah:

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52 minutes ago, sr360 said:

Sure, make your own. Just don't deplete the supply that's needed for the frontline individuals. It's akin to stockpiling ammunition in Kansas when there aren't enough bullets for the soldiers in Okinawa.

To be fair there was real fear that japan would invade Kansas. 

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2 hours ago, echo9835 said:

To be fair there was real fear that japan would invade Kansas. 

Just imagine if the Ruski’s had hung onto Alaska....

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We had a fucking earthquake in Croatia this morning. Precisely, in the city that has 1/4 of whole nations population. People are panicking on the streets. Things are looking pretty dark from our point of view, there will definitely be more infected.

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Meanwhile there doesn't seem to be a lot of press going to the fact that when you lock the fuck down, new infections drop. This isnt an end level boss that you can just button mash to get past. This will require people to go stealth for a while. Get small.

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4 months to hit 100,000 15 days to hit 200,000, 3? days to hit 300,000

We have gone exponential boys

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On 3/21/2020 at 3:07 AM, FlorbFnarb said:

I've had people show me graphs - haven't investigated, but they make sense - showing that travel bans, etc., do less than social distancing.  Which makes sense, because a travel ban (country to country, state to state, town to town, etc.) prevent transmission between groups while social distancing prevents transmission within groups.

But of course, it isn't an either-or thing, and having travel bans as well is going to help, especially travel from countries known to have a bad outbreak.

Re: "just the flu."  IANAD, but no.  Sure, it also isn't the Black Plague and we aren't going to see a third of civilization dead.  But I'm hearing the Wuhan virus as something like 5x-10x the mortality rate of the seasonal flu, so it comes down to ensuring that we don't have anything like the number of cases of flu we annually have if we want to keep deaths low.

It takes time to build up enough numbers of people that have been exposed and developed immunity for the herd immunity phenomenon to kick in, and it has to be slow in order to keep the number of sick who need hospitalization low enough to not overwhelm facilities.  If I heard right, car companies are volunteering to build respirators, so it's being taken seriously.

A lot of stores here are closing for two weeks.  Not all, some small businesses are staying open, but that's less of a risk because you don't get large numbers of people gathering in those places.  Grocery stores are some of the worst places to get large numbers of people in a confined space, but then they're the one store that can't shut down under any circumstances.

To be honest the pucker factor is highest in NYC and environs; I have a brother and a sister in law living in northern New Jersey, and it's tense.  The NYC megalopolis is the one place in the country where large numbers of people are dependent upon traveling in metal tubes - subways, trains, buses - in close confines with other humans.

So no, it isn't the Black Plague, but no, it isn't just the seasonal flu.  Maybe it'll only feel like that for some people who get it, but that 5x-10x the death rate means something around 1% deaths - and from what I hear, Italy is a lot worse off because of their aged population: second highest average age in the world, second only to Japan.

Do we have any Japanese members?  Their population is old but the only thing I ever heard about Japan was they shut all schools down a good month ago.  Did their giant mecha literally stomp all the viruses dead?

You clearly havent seen the mortality rate in Italy. Over 600 people died yesterday

It isnt the plague but its killing so many people its insane

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9 hours ago, nabucodonsor said:

You clearly havent seen the mortality rate in Italy. Over 600 people died yesterday

It isnt the plague but its killing so many people its insane

Yeah, Italy isn't having fun for sure.

16 hours ago, H4NI said:

We had a fucking earthquake in Croatia this morning. Precisely, in the city that has 1/4 of whole nations population. People are panicking on the streets. Things are looking pretty dark from our point of view, there will definitely be more infected.

You know, I really hope that EU members that are less afflicted by this virus are helping those more afflicted.

How bad was the earthquake?

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6 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

Yeah, Italy isn't having fun for sure.

You know, I really hope that EU members that are less afflicted by this virus are helping those more afflicted.

How bad was the earthquake?

The first one one was 5,3 per Richter chart, second one was 5,0 (and after that more than 30 smaller ones - basically every thirty minutes there is one minor).  It could be worse, but there are  a few people who lost homes. There was a lot of confusion: stay in home - leave home but spread out. People started panicking and massively left the city to their weekend houses etc, so there is no control anymore. From my point of view and looking at the behaviour of the people from last few days: we are fucked. People are so casual, maybe this woke them up. We'll see.

From today there is a ban on leaving place of residence, but total quarantine will follow for sure. Public transport is already shut down.

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21 hours ago, nabucodonsor said:

You clearly havent seen the mortality rate in Italy. Over 600 people died yesterday

It isnt the plague but its killing so many people its insane

What is the number of people dying daily in Italy in for example 2019? It is a 60 million country.

Mortality rate of COVID19 in Italy is about 9% out of confirmed cases. Confirmed cases are only about 15% of the actual cases. Actual mortality rate is about 1% and that to people with already prexisting problems. Infect a healthy portion of the population and you'll see a mortality rate close to 0%
The only controlled enviroment where we saw the actual mortality rate of the virus was that cruise ship. Mortality rate on that was between 0.05% to 1% and it was mostly occupied by older people as well. 

FACTS

God people! I thought these forums were a place for smart people! 

 

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Interesting facts. Where are you sourcing your data? The 15% is indeed worrying if it is accurate. It would imply the spread is far more serious than is already known.

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3 hours ago, kariverson said:

What is the number of people dying daily in Italy in for example 2019? It is a 60 million country.

Mortality rate of COVID19 in Italy is about 9% out of confirmed cases. Confirmed cases are only about 15% of the actual cases. Actual mortality rate is about 1% and that to people with already prexisting problems. Infect a healthy portion of the population and you'll see a mortality rate close to 0%
The only controlled enviroment where we saw the actual mortality rate of the virus was that cruise ship. Mortality rate on that was between 0.05% to 1% and it was mostly occupied by older people as well. 

FACTS

God people! I thought these forums were a place for smart people! 

Controlled environment? Which particular cruise ship were you talking about, almost all cruise ship has pepple left before they were forced to be quarantined. Plus I would like to see multiple sources backing the "15%", at what particular time and location.

Also, in what method of estimation the "close to 0%" can be came up with? Does that mean there are flavour variables which makes the virus less lethal the longer it is around instead of its potential mutation?

I am not convinced.

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How can one source the 'actual data'? Wouldn't you need to confirm the data so we know if its accurate? But when its confirmed then its a confirmed case. So then what is this 'actual data'?

Are you a seriously that stupid that you believe that?

 

 

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It's not about how many people are dead, it's about how many can be saved.

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46 minutes ago, Unavailebow said:

Controlled environment? Which particular cruise ship were you talking about, almost all cruise ship has pepple left before they were forced to be quarantined. Plus I would like to see multiple sources backing the "15%", at what particular time and location.

Also, in what method of estimation the "close to 0%" can be came up with? Does that mean there are flavour variables which makes the virus less lethal the longer it is around instead of its potential mutation?

I am not convinced.

The Diamond Princess

The 15% statistic came from my country's ministry of health. I'm pretty sure you'll find it somewhere but google is pages upon pages of fear mongering so not too easy.

I don't get the fears of mutation, like others viruses don't mutate or something. With the 0% I meant it's something that will not kill a healthy person. It's not zombie apocalypse. The virus itself is not the cause of death. It only complicates pre existing conditions.

Anyway like I mentioned it's much harder to do research now as there are way too many fear mongering results. I can't even find how many people die normally in Italy every day lol. I read the other day from W.H.O. itself that 2/3 of annual deaths have some kind of complication with a virus or a flu and I cannot find it again for my life. 

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Regardless of the validity of the 15%, if 85% of cases are walking around undetected we're double fucked.

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That's what Europe and the US are doing (only testing those near death and health professionals), and yet they are leading the charts now.

Russia on the other hand just sees a completely unrelated surge in deaths due to pneumonia. But luckily only a 100-odd corona cases!

In all seriousness, this combating this virus is partially about protecting the risk groups, but mainly about safeguarding sustainable health care and hospital infrastructure. Madrid has people lying in the hospital corridors. If that happens, what do you think happens to the chances of other seriously ill people and trauma cases?

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2 hours ago, kariverson said:

 

I don't get the fears of mutation, like others viruses don't mutate or something. With the 0% I meant it's something that will not kill a healthy person. It's not zombie apocalypse. The virus itself is not the cause of death. It only complicates pre existing conditions.

 

This is unequivocally, 100%, unadulterated bullshit.

And that's my medical opinion.

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