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Corona Virus vs WotLabs Community Megathread

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2 hours ago, Ezz said:

Regardless of the validity of the 15%, if 85% of cases are walking around undetected we're double fucked.

They are not. It's pretty much martial law in several countries

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It's not just about dying, this thing can damage your lungs too. Using a ventilator itself can do it.

They're starting to realize the choice is either to lock everything down and kill the economy for a year fighting to keep it under control or just let it run its course and kill a lot of people. The U.S. will do the latter. And they don't have to tell every one what choice they made, they just have to keep pretending with half measures.

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2 hours ago, Jesse_the_Scout said:

It's not just about dying, this thing can damage your lungs too. Using a ventilator itself can do it.

They're starting to realize the choice is either to lock everything down and kill the economy for a year fighting to keep it under control or just let it run its course and kill a lot of people. The U.S. will do the latter. And they don't have to tell every one what choice they made, they just have to keep pretending with half measures.

Part of the fear in the US is the knowledge that an excessively down economy can itself be a source of death.  High unemployment rates lead to spikes in suicide, drug addiction, etc.

None of which is to say that we shouldn't be avoiding interpersonal contact, but it is something of a balancing factor.

I'm curious about the estimated average time it takes from the moment of exposure to getting sick, recovering, and having gained an immunity - and when we can expect a slow spread of contact to start producing a return in the form of increasing herd immunity, to protect those that can't safely risk exposure.

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10 minutes ago, FlorbFnarb said:

I'm curious about the estimated average time it takes from the moment of exposure to getting sick, recovering, and having gained an immunity - and when we can expect a slow spread of contact to start producing a return in the form of increasing herd immunity, to protect those that can't safely risk exposure.

It has not been proven (yet) that people gain immunity and cannot get reinfected (much like flu/colds).

The effectiveness of isolation and social distancing measures will be known in weeks, except in areas where they were not implemented or implemented late where the rate increase will be obvious.  
 

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Short term is hoping your country started isolation earlier enough in the infection process. Medium term will be whether the various drugs being trialled to treat symptoms prove to be effective. While longer term we may see vaccines developed on the assumption the thing is stable enough to allow it.

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1 hour ago, 8_Hussars said:

It has not been proven (yet) that people gain immunity and cannot get reinfected (much like flu/colds).

The effectiveness of isolation and social distancing measures will be known in weeks, except in areas where they were not implemented or implemented late where the rate increase will be obvious.  
 

iirc someone who had it and beat it somehow got it again. which means the antibodies dont last inside very long. then again i wouldnt expect anything less from a lab made virus from the chinese government.

 

atleast people like me who cant go outside got the power of the internet and vidya games to pass time lol.

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9 minutes ago, Draco912 said:

iirc someone who had it and beat it somehow got it again. which means the antibodies dont last inside very long. then again i wouldnt expect anything less from a lab made virus from the chinese government.

Thanks, no offense but I would prefer a citation.

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17 minutes ago, 8_Hussars said:

Thanks, no offense but I would prefer a citation.

non taken im used to being inside all the time anyways alot of health issues and a really crap immune system also asthma so me getting this covid-19 virus would likely end in me dying, so im good staying home and staying alive while i can lol.

 

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15 minutes ago, Draco912 said:

non taken im used to being inside all the time anyways alot of health issues and a really crap immune system also asthma so me getting this covid-19 virus would likely end in me dying, so im good staying home and staying alive while i can lol.

 

Be safe..

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Lots of debate whether reinfection is a thing or not.

 

Some medical professionals believe that they've been infected the whole time between 'reinfections' but its all going to be chaotic for the next few months. 

Government believe this level of lockdown here is going to last for 4-6 months. More qualified people believe it could stretch from 12-18 months. 

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The length of lock down I suspect will depend on more detailed knowledge of mortality rates, immunity and success of treatments. If things start improving in those respects then I suspect flattening the curve may be seen as enough. Ie enough to ensure icus aren't overrun. If things don't improve, or if countries like India or Indonesia start copping it on an even larger scale then, yeah, I suspect this is just the beginning.

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40 minutes ago, Ezz said:

The length of lock down I suspect will depend on more detailed knowledge of mortality rates, immunity and success of treatments. If things start improving in those respects then I suspect flattening the curve may be seen as enough. Ie enough to ensure icus aren't overrun. If things don't improve, or if countries like India or Indonesia start copping it on an even larger scale then, yeah, I suspect this is just the beginning.

At this point everything we are doing are just so to give as much time possible for medical advancements to happen. I don’t believe in natural antibiotics just yet, I may need to re-educate myself but whats currently in my head is, every flu you catch is slightly different than what you had, old natural antibiotics don’t react to them, I am not sure about this, was told many years ago.

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1 hour ago, Unavailebow said:

At this point everything we are doing are just so to give as much time possible for medical advancements to happen. I don’t believe in natural antibiotics just yet, I may need to re-educate myself but whats currently in my head is, every flu you catch is slightly different than what you had, old natural antibiotics don’t react to them, I am not sure about this, was told many years ago.

Seasonal flu's are typically virus'. As such antibiotics are not effective against them. However they can be useful for any secondary infections that may occur (ie a secondary bacterial pneumonia)

Coronavirus' typically mutate at a rate that will yield a different strain on a monthly basis, hence why you need a flu shot every 12 months. 

Of note, virus mutation is not a switch that suddenly flicks, it is a result of thousands upon millions of replication that result in slight variation of the RNA. The end result is that the become different enough over time that a new vaccine is required. Mutation happens much more quickly when there are millions of cases. I am pretty sure that every microbiologist working on a vaccine dies a little inside everytime they look at the current trajectory of the US's cases.

I'm not a doctor or an expert on any of this, so take my words with a grain of salt.

Also, wash you hands and stop touching your goddamn faces.

 

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7 hours ago, Ezz said:

The length of lock down I suspect will depend on more detailed knowledge of mortality rates, immunity and success of treatments. If things start improving in those respects then I suspect flattening the curve may be seen as enough. Ie enough to ensure icus aren't overrun. If things don't improve, or if countries like India or Indonesia start copping it on an even larger scale then, yeah, I suspect this is just the beginning.

This is the critical issue, of course.

5 hours ago, simba90 said:

Seasonal flu's are typically virus'. As such antibiotics are not effective against them. However they can be useful for any secondary infections that may occur (ie a secondary bacterial pneumonia)

Coronavirus' typically mutate at a rate that will yield a different strain on a monthly basis, hence why you need a flu shot every 12 months. 

Of note, virus mutation is not a switch that suddenly flicks, it is a result of thousands upon millions of replication that result in slight variation of the RNA. The end result is that the become different enough over time that a new vaccine is required. Mutation happens much more quickly when there are millions of cases. I am pretty sure that every microbiologist working on a vaccine dies a little inside everytime they look at the current trajectory of the US's cases.

I'm not a doctor or an expert on any of this, so take my words with a grain of salt.

Also, wash you hands and stop touching your goddamn faces.

 

It's my understanding that this is how this generally kills: via a secondary bacterial pneumonia infection.  That said, IANAD, so don't quote me on that.

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Hmm, second day in a row that the number of new hospital cases is going down in Belgium. Let's hope people stick as much as possible to the measures still and don't get a false sense of success too easily.

Plus we've got a ticking time bomb on our border with the Netherlands and their "group immunity is the way to g... omg our hospitals cannot take this"-approach.

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I know I said this previously, but I really do hope various EU countries that are less afflicted by this disease are helping those countries more afflicted.

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12 minutes ago, Unavailebow said:

Looks like Tokyo will have a year 21 Olympics.

Yeah, I saw that it got postponed.

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3 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

I know I said this previously, but I really do hope various EU countries that are less afflicted by this disease are helping those countries more afflicted.

That's difficult until the peak is clear. If we are passed that, we will without a doubt help out where possible.

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3 hours ago, Private_Miros said:

Hmm, second day in a row that the number of new hospital cases is going down in Belgium. Let's hope people stick as much as possible to the measures still and don't get a false sense of success too easily.

Yes, this is a real danger.  The rebound often happens when restrictions are loosened or eliminated and everyone goes back to old habits immediately.

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35 minutes ago, Private_Miros said:

That's difficult until the peak is clear. If we are passed that, we will without a doubt help out where possible.

Right, I understand that no country wants to risk sending its doctors and nurses off to another EU country to help, only to find out three weeks later that they're needed at home but now 30% of them are themselves out sick, or to accept sick people into their own ICU beds only to have that spike their domestic infection rate.

But are *all* EU countries seeing significant spread of the disease?  Nobody could spare say a military medical unit to provide extra medical personnel?  Of course language barriers could be an issue.

30 minutes ago, 8_Hussars said:

Yes, this is a real danger.  The rebound often happens when restrictions are loosened or eliminated and everyone goes back to old habits immediately.

Apparently the Spanish Flu had some such second wave.

As with all such questions, more data is needed for proper statistical analysis.  Ideally it would be good to figure out the risk level for people with no complicating health issues and not of advanced age.  It would be nice to know what level of immunity people retain once they get exposed and have the virus for a while, etc.  Modes of transmission interest me as well; I'd like to know if the risk of picking the virus up and becoming infected via contact with contaminated surfaces constitutes a significant vector, or if breathing in airborne particles carrying the virus constitutes all but a tiny portion of cases.

As Sherlock Holmes said, we need data; we can't make bricks without clay.

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6 hours ago, FlorbFnarb said:

This is the critical issue, of course.

It's my understanding that this is how this generally kills: via a secondary bacterial pneumonia infection.  That said, IANAD, so don't quote me on that.

It kills via respiratory failure associated with ARDS. Essentially the lungs get inflamed and fill up with fluid, which limits ability to breathe. And that's why ventilators are in short supply.

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1 hour ago, FlorbFnarb said:

Right, I understand that no country wants to risk sending its doctors and nurses off to another EU country to help, only to find out three weeks later that they're needed at home but now 30% of them are themselves out sick, or to accept sick people into their own ICU beds only to have that spike their domestic infection rate.

But are *all* EU countries seeing significant spread of the disease?  Nobody could spare say a military medical unit to provide extra medical personnel?  Of course language barriers could be an issue.

If I be the officials I’d more concern the 2nd wave even 3rd wave before even considering reaching out my hands, for a simple reason of, we don’t have exact figures to convince people we can take a hit, or it had already past its prime.

I try not to say bad things about any EU or other Western countries, but this whole corona thing is giving us clear indication of who likes RMB and who doesn’t. (very important to us) more than humanity. The point being, some have their own priorities over the virus.

Just like us, people will go mad if they can’t go back to work. :minidoge:

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1 hour ago, sr360 said:

It kills via respiratory failure associated with ARDS. Essentially the lungs get inflamed and fill up with fluid, which limits ability to breathe. And that's why ventilators are in short supply.

Right, but I thought that that inflammation usually came from a secondary infection.  Is that not the case?  Are we seeing that this virus creates that degree of inflammation on its own?

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