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dustygator

Truth through tank curves

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I've been fiddling around with tank win rate curves quite a bit over the past few days, in an attempt to consolidate my garage and focus on tanks that are worth playing. They have always been one of my favorite tools for assessing tanks, and I'm sure they would be more widely used if the interface wasn't so ganky.

https://wot-news.com/game/tankinfo/en/us

Pick a tank->tank curves button

Within the interface, you can add curves for multiple tanks via the "undefined" dropdowns. Order is:

Nation: China->Czech->French->German->Italian -> Japanese->Poland->Swedish -> UK -> US -> Russia

Class: TD->Arty->Heavy->Light->Medium

Tanks are in tier order with mostly straight forward names (but a few that don't match in game exactly)

 

Lots of information to be gleaned from these. Proof of things that are fairly obvious. Data that quantifies our gut feelings. Completely surprising situations.

IS-3a OP? Duh

Wrong auto(re)loader getting nerfed?

T9 meds are very much a sweet spot. But Obj 430 looks a little underwhelming

P2W much?

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Almost all of us know about it and have used them.

After the 268 v4 debacle, at least for ASIA, we've pretty much stopped caring about the winrate curves since its clear WG don't give a shit about it.

 

Their criteria for buffing/nerfing appears to literally be a spinning wheel.

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11 hours ago, dustygator said:

I've been fiddling around with tank win rate curves quite a bit over the past few days, in an attempt to consolidate my garage and focus on tanks that are worth playing. They have always been one of my favorite tools for assessing tanks, and I'm sure they would be more widely used if the interface wasn't so ganky.

https://wot-news.com/game/tankinfo/en/us

Pick a tank->tank curves button

Within the interface, you can add curves for multiple tanks via the "undefined" dropdowns. Order is:

Nation: China->Czech->French->German->Italian -> Japanese->Poland->Swedish -> UK -> US -> Russia

Class: TD->Arty->Heavy->Light->Medium

Tanks are in tier order with mostly straight forward names (but a few that don't match in game exactly)

 

Lots of information to be gleaned from these. Proof of things that are fairly obvious. Data that quantifies our gut feelings. Completely surprising situations.

IS-3a OP? Duh

Wrong auto(re)loader getting nerfed?

T9 meds are very much a sweet spot. But Obj 430 looks a little underwhelming

P2W much?

Find something interesting? Share it!

1. We all knew IS3A is op

2. Standard B is getting nerfed only because they are nerfing the t10. For average pubbies Skoda is better.

3. Those look strange. Seriously.

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I've always been a huge fan on wotnews' winrate curves, as long as you're careful with how you interpret the extreme ends of the spectrum. It's definitely not new to the forum but I think a dedicated tank curve thread would be pretty interesting. Its a fun way of seeing how opinion stacks up with stats.

The double barrel line is pretty well balanced, but the IS-2-II lags behind, probably due to the complete lack of armor and insufficient pen:

image.png.f5051b452e3e97cbe573041e38307f7e.png

When it comes to the TX Heaviums, the Chinese are pretty competitive with each other, but the Obj 277 doesn't perform for unicums.

image.png.c757abec1e7dcb4535d46dbc7b638eec.png

A look at how the old T8 ht prem squad is doing in the current meta vs the meta of 2016:

The KV-5 has been absolutely destroyed, dropping 6% winrate. It doesn't hold up as well as I thought it might.
The IS-6 is still doing extremely wellhaving pretty much identical stats to what it used to have. I have no idea why.
The T34 adapted to the new meta. It's now average instead of terrible. That pen is finally worth it, apparently.
The FCM hasn't changed much, going from slightly above average to slightly below.
The Lowe has gone from awful to slightly above average, although the armor changes to the tank make this pretty obvious. Unicums still slip in it a bit, but its old stats were some of the worst in the game, especially for good players.

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44 minutes ago, Rexxie said:

Winrate curves wow

Obj. 277:

I think the tank falls off for unicums because it's kind of a half-step between a 113 and the 5A. If I wanted to win by trading and damage farming I'd get a 5A, if I want to win by being a damage sponge the 113 works well, albeit the 430U will do that job better. The better mobility it has over the 5A doesn't mean much if you're facing heavies around corners.

IS-6:

The tank is only barely playable these days but I think its WR stays the same because its retained its role as tier 7.5 rather well. Low-tier bully, the armor can still be pretty troll, and it would get demolished by any tier 9 tank.

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4 hours ago, ZXrage said:

Obj. 277:

I think the tank falls off for unicums because it's kind of a half-step between a 113 and the 5A. If I wanted to win by trading and damage farming I'd get a 5A, if I want to win by being a damage sponge the 113 works well, albeit the 430U will do that job better. The better mobility it has over the 5A doesn't mean much if you're facing heavies around corners.

so im not the only one that doesn't enjoy the 277 that much, often i find myself wishing i was in a 5A or 430U instead as well.

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16 hours ago, Rexxie said:
  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.f5051b452e3e97cbe573041e38307f7e.png

  Reveal hidden contents

image.png.c757abec1e7dcb4535d46dbc7b638eec.png

The IS-6 is still doing extremely wellhaving pretty much identical stats to what it used to have. I have no idea why.

IS6 also got a pen buff, 175 to 190 (or whatever it has) is now enough to pen many t8 tanks with AP (so for joe average, this might make a diff)

And its armour always relied more on rng as sheer strength, coupled with (still) good dpm / alpha dmg combo, and anything close range that misjudges the situation is gonna get smoked, including stuff like patriot or renegade.

(and IS6 always had to deal with unkillable tanks, infact, in the past it was worse, VK-B was 100% imprevious after its buff, E75 was close to impossible to pen, type 4 the same, T95? no chance ST-1? well, only lfp can be penned, KV4? again, if he angles proper, you can only pen the hatch, with luck (both to hit and the pen roll) the rest is unpenneable).

ST-1 are extinct i think,  same for KV4, E75 is not popular, cant remember the last VK-B, so while an VK100 is ``not much fun`` in the IS6, and E75 is worse and while mle 51 sucks to fight, its still better as an Type 4 etc.

And the armies of IS3`s which are your best counter are also gone, an Renegade or patiot might be good/OP,  but when your IS6, i guess facing IS3`s is in some ways worse...

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On 8/2/2020 at 2:18 AM, GehakteMolen said:

IS6 also got a pen buff, 175 to 190 (or whatever it has) is now enough to pen many t8 tanks with AP (so for joe average, this might make a diff)

And its armour always relied more on rng as sheer strength, coupled with (still) good dpm / alpha dmg combo, and anything close range that misjudges the situation is gonna get smoked, including stuff like patriot or renegade.

(and IS6 always had to deal with unkillable tanks, infact, in the past it was worse, VK-B was 100% imprevious after its buff, E75 was close to impossible to pen, type 4 the same, T95? no chance ST-1? well, only lfp can be penned, KV4? again, if he angles proper, you can only pen the hatch, with luck (both to hit and the pen roll) the rest is unpenneable).

ST-1 are extinct i think,  same for KV4, E75 is not popular, cant remember the last VK-B, so while an VK100 is ``not much fun`` in the IS6, and E75 is worse and while mle 51 sucks to fight, its still better as an Type 4 etc.

And the armies of IS3`s which are your best counter are also gone, an Renegade or patiot might be good/OP,  but when your IS6, i guess facing IS3`s is in some ways worse...

perhaps an alternative explanation is that the only people who insist on playing the IS-6 in 2020 are diehard fans who run tryhard-ish loadouts, and so the WN8 level of the players are not exactly representative of their skill/tryhardiness level. it made more sense in my mind.

the curves also show that the WZ-111 is also extremely good at winning games, tho that's hardly surprising given its combination of speed and armour

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Was looking through T9 TDs, a quick roundup based on a blue's performance. The number to the right indicates the change in winrate since 2015:

  1. Tortoise (+12%)
  2. T95 (+7%)
  3. Foch (+5%)
  4. Obj 263 (N/A)
  5. WZ-111G (N/A)
  6. T30 (+3%)
  7. Waffen IV (-1%)
  8. Strv 103-0 (N/A)
  9. Conway (-2%)
  10. Jagdtiger (-3%)
  11. Obj 704 (-3%)

I won't lie, I'm a little surprised. I would never have guessed that the JT was that bad. Likewise, the Foch clawing its way to the third best T9 TD in the game is pretty impressive for an entirely ignored tank line. The 704 being the worst T9 TD in the game is crazy to me - sure, I expected power creep and map design to take its toll, but that's just sad. I expected it to at least be able to outperform the Conway.

Just for the sake of completeness, the 122-54 had the same performance then as the Conway does now.

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42 minutes ago, Rexxie said:

Was looking through T9 TDs, a quick roundup based on a blue's performance. The number to the right indicates the change in a winrate since 2015:

  1. Tortoise (+12%)
  2. T95 (+7%)
  3. Foch (+5%)
  4. Obj 263 (N/A)
  5. WZ-111G (N/A)
  6. T30 (+3%)
  7. Waffen IV (-1%)
  8. Strv 103-0 (N/A)
  9. Conway (-2%)
  10. Jagdtiger (-3%)
  11. Obj 704 (-3%)

I won't lie, I'm a little surprised. I would never have guessed that the JT was that bad. Likewise, the Foch clawing its way to the third best T9 TD in the game is pretty impressive for an entirely ignored tank line. The 704 being the worst T9 TD in the game is crazy to me - sure, I expected power creep and map design to take its toll, but that's just sad. I expected it to at least be able to outperform the Conway.

Just for the sake of completeness, the 122-54 had the same performance then as the Conway does now.

There might be an explanation for the 704 winrate which is that the BL 10 was removed from the ISU, meaning that you now have to grind it on the 704. That said, other tanks also have stock grinds.

Notice that the best performing tanks are all assault TDs.

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2 hours ago, Rexxie said:

Was looking through T9 TDs, a quick roundup based on a blue's performance. The number to the right indicates the change in a winrate since 2015:

  1. Tortoise (+12%)
  2. T95 (+7%)
  3. Foch (+5%)
  4. Obj 263 (N/A)
  5. WZ-111G (N/A)
  6. T30 (+3%)
  7. Waffen IV (-1%)
  8. Strv 103-0 (N/A)
  9. Conway (-2%)
  10. Jagdtiger (-3%)
  11. Obj 704 (-3%)

I won't lie, I'm a little surprised. I would never have guessed that the JT was that bad. Likewise, the Foch clawing its way to the third best T9 TD in the game is pretty impressive for an entirely ignored tank line. The 704 being the worst T9 TD in the game is crazy to me - sure, I expected power creep and map design to take its toll, but that's just sad. I expected it to at least be able to outperform the Conway.

Just for the sake of completeness, the 122-54 had the same performance then as the Conway does now.

I rly cant stand the 704 though, i hate strv even more, but thats it, i alwas even rated foch better as 704 ;D

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Another interesting tidbit: the FCM 50t is still one of the best unicum game winners in the game, on par with broken bullshit like the 703 II. Maybe the buff was a bit too much?

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8 hours ago, Rexxie said:

Another interesting tidbit: the FCM 50t is still one of the best unicum game winners in the game, on par with broken bullshit like the 703 II. Maybe the buff was a bit too much?

it got buffed? :P

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3 hours ago, GehakteMolen said:

it got buffed? :P

Apparently. I'm so far behind on all this stuff.
 

Reload time decreased from 7.5 to 6.8 s
Gun depression angle increased from -8° to -10°
Engine replaced; engine power increased from 1,000 to 1,250 hp
Specific power increased from 18.4 to 23.0 hp/t

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35 minutes ago, Rexxie said:

Apparently. I'm so far behind on all this stuff.
 

Reload time decreased from 7.5 to 6.8 s
Gun depression angle increased from -8° to -10°
Engine replaced; engine power increased from 1,000 to 1,250 hp
Specific power increased from 18.4 to 23.0 hp/t

not the gun handling, it's still shit. and it still occupies a heavy slot. can you check if it shows as OP on RU or SEA as well? which I highly doubt - assuming enough people still play it

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17 minutes ago, lavawing said:

not the gun handling, it's still shit. and it still occupies a heavy slot. can you check if it shows as OP on RU or SEA as well? which I highly doubt - assuming enough people still play it

It's completely average, literally no idea what I was graphing last night. Maybe don't write posts while you're half drugged.

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10 hours ago, Strigonx said:

Unsurprising to see the Tortoise at the top, puzzled as to why the Jagdtiger is so low.

Shitty armour scheme which completely kills any ability to push things.

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