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Jesse_the_Scout

XVM: Knowledge vs. Sanity

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XVM is great BUT I have win chances OFF, that drives me mad.

http://www.koreanrandom.com/forum/topic/2598-%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B0-%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%88%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B2-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%83-chance-to-win-formula/

 

The chance to win formula is pretty much useless imo. Seems like somewhat questionable computations that revolve around modulating your WN6 by the number of battles you've played/tier of your vehicle to come up with a "battle effectiveness" rating and "converting" that into a probability.

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All I want is the minimap.  But currently I am running mod free.  It is enlightening trying to use memory over crutches.

 

If all you want is the minimap then here you go http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/95330-089-locastans-enh-hd-minimap-gen-2/

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This may not apply to EU, but I don't see how you're seeing that many yellows and reds. Honestly, when I'm playing tier 8+, I see a blue/purple every 5 games or so, and there are several greens every game. It's ridiculous.

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One thing I like about XVM is seeing how reliably bad players go to the bad player spots on maps. Technically, if you only ever played Lakeville, you wouldn't need XVM, the bads really always do go valley.

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http://www.koreanrandom.com/forum/topic/2598-%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B0-%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%88%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B2-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%83-chance-to-win-formula/

 

The chance to win formula is pretty much useless imo. Seems like somewhat questionable computations that revolve around modulating your WN6 by the number of battles you've played/tier of your vehicle to come up with a "battle effectiveness" rating and "converting" that into a probability.

 

XVM's accuracy is based on everyone performing at their historical abilities.  I don't think it takes into account map bias, but I haven't checked the formula.  It also doesn't take into account platoons or particularly good or bad tank matchups.

 

Personal data:

9WcWeGt.png

 

 

For *me*, the formula is pretty good between 30 - 70% predictions. I think this will be true for anyone playing according to their XVM rating.  Outside the 30 - 70% range, the formula breaks down.  Your still likely to lose or win, but it's not as bad/good as it looks.  Smallish sample sizes, but makes sense.   Anyone playing above (or below) their expected ability will find they win (or lose) more games than XVM predicts.  At least that's how it looks to me.

 

This data is over the same period:

 

81sVrTe.png

 

The totals don't add up because I started breaking the battle types down later in the data collection.

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I don't quite understand the "my team's all red so I shouldn't even try" mindset... I mean, my biggest issue is being on a good, cohesive team; it's hard to get any damage in! My best games have been on the bottom, wildly outmatched in skill, and left to carry alone. True, I don't succeed often, but when I do it pays off handsomely. No yolo-potato; at the very least you'll have a great WNx at the end!

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I personally use this one as I've also easily configured it using the tips that Locastan provides in the readme file.

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I like XVM more for how it will affect what I do in certain situations.

 

For example, if I'm facing off against a 44% all red champion of the same tier on the other team I generally know that if I side scrape and angle I should be able push into him pretty easily and not lose much HP. However, if that guy was green/blue/purple chances are I'm not going to come out unscathed, and should probably ensure I have more favorable conditions before trying to push.

 

Similarly, if I know some dudes are pushing my cap, and the only tanks near base are horrible red pubbies, I'm going to head back top base ASAP as I know I can't even rely on them to reset, let alone take out the tanks. If it's a better player, I should be able to finish what I'm doing and take a little more time getting back.

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Damn, I forgot about the 1v1 aspect. Setting the efficiency above each player's head is too much of an advantage to give up. GOD I HATE KNOWING THINGS.

 

Maybe I'll take off win % at least, though it's not like it tells me much I don't already know.

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I avoid it because it comes with too much stuff I do not want. And I never bothered to explore if I can remove the junk.

 

Is there some kind of a "lightweight XVM"? I don't want map mods, aim mods, zoom mods, icon mods, extra stats, win chance, numbers over tanks, none of that crap.

 

I just want colored nicknames. Is there something like that?

 

 

2mzcfg7.jpg

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OP should have been more specific by saying "xvm with statistics enabled" instead of just xvm.

 

Since xvm is a base package that includes several different mods now, it isn't just statistics anymore.

 

@Bobi_Kreeg: Yes, of course. You can disable everything and leave only the stuff you want (like remember location on minimap or color tab/player lists based on efficiency, etc.). That is what this is for:

http://www.modxvm.com/en/xvm-xvm-xvmconf-configuration-editor/

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I'd encourage you to make your peace with XVM. When MM gives you a team of potatoes, whether you find during the countdown (with XVM) or 60 seconds after the game has started when 10 of your team charge the valley in Lakeville), you'll find out soon enough.

Ignorance is bliss if you don't have any power to change the outcome. But XVM gives you actionable intel to change the outcome or at least maximize your performance.

"My team is terrible, so rather than rush a map control spot, I'll try and snipe down a couple enemies as my pubbies YOLO"

"Ah... The tanker holding this flank with me is competent. I can push and trust him to land shots"

"Oh... The tanker holding this flank with me is terrible. I'll let him poke first and eat the shot, then get a shell in while enemy reloads"

"I have shots on three full health tanks. I'll put one into their blue/purple player rather than the two reds"

"I see an enemy heading to our base. It's cool -- we have two greens there to defend"

"I see an enemy heading to our base. I better hurry back because my teammates and terrible"

Unless the frustration of getting seeing "28% win chance" hurts your performance enough to offset the intel benefits, you should stick with it. XVM helps make lemons into lemonade (tomatoes into tomato sauce?).

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I used to have this issue with XVM too. I've gotten used to it, although after 7 losses in a row I usually TK a friendly arty and log off.

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This may not apply to EU, but I don't see how you're seeing that many yellows and reds. Honestly, when I'm playing tier 8+, I see a blue/purple every 5 games or so, and there are several greens every game. It's ridiculous.

 

NA is reaaaaaaaaalllllllllllllly bad right now.

 

Seriously.

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If you were going to get brain cancer and die at 44 would you even want to know? This shit's getting all philosophical Matrix pills and stuff.

It would rather be: It is very likely you die at 44, but also you may not if you live healthy enough. So, yes I would like to know. At least you can prepare things for that. It is the same with xvm. With team of reds I play slightly more cautiously. And also estimating players before I attack them is priceless. I expect deep red players to don't fire at weak spots e.g. Chance to win gives me overall team potential, albeit not too accurate. Number of battles can tell me probability of having decent crew and modules.

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Does XVM color code for the individual tank, or the overall rating?

 

How about W/L%?

Yes... XVM has options that allow you to color code for overall win rate, overall WN6 or by vehicle winrate, vehicle WN6...

 

You can configure it how you like.

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Thank you for expanding my vocabulary.

 

 

Watch a British stream. They say some weird shit.

 

the quote is douche canoes. and it means to be a twat. a twat canoe would be a lesbian whore. not all slang translates with its meaning intact. 

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I have mine set up where the player's overall efficiency is color coded over their head as a seperate number. Then when I hold ctrl it shows stats for their current tank: # of battles, effiency, and win rate. Gives you an idea how good their crew is and helps identify the shameless Hellcat whores on sight.

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I'm starting to wonder myself.  I must certainly say, loading into a game and seeing all that red immediately diminishes my expectation for fun.  That likely alters my perception of the game, causing me to have less fun.  But would not knowing be better?  I don't know.

 

In the end, I think it is the bad players themselves, not my knowledge of them, which destroys the game for me.  Even if I were to go without XVM, I'd still see after battle reports with XXXX damage done in a loss, or tanks with double their HP done in damage, kill rates over 2.5 per battle, and 40% win rates.  Reflecting on those truths keeps me from logging in. 

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XVM's accuracy is based on everyone performing at their historical abilities.  I don't think it takes into account map bias, but I haven't checked the formula.  It also doesn't take into account platoons or particularly good or bad tank matchups.

Thanks for the data! It seems like the prediction is often off by at least 5-10% (I'm assuming that e.g. 45% is what I'd expect to see in the 40-50% bucket, could be a bad assumption since I'd expect things to be normally distributed around your own win rate). That still shows that it's at least ok as a rough, take-it-with-a-pinch-of-salt estimate.

 

Do you have some way to automate the collection of this data? I'd like to see what my dataset looks like.

 

Anyone playing above (or below) their expected ability will find they win (or lose) more games than XVM predicts.  At least that's how it looks to me.

That is probably what's coloring my perception of it's accuracy. My historical performance hasn't been accurate for a while.

 

Beyond that though, my main gripes are:

  • it uses the number of battles to modulate your effectiveness.
  • it assumes that wn6/7 is on a "ratio" type scale i.e. having double the wn7 means you're twice as good. I am doubtful this is the case at all.
  • wn7 is highly correlated with win rate but if you're calculating a win rate why not just use (vehicle specific) win rates (perhaps with adjustments based on your tier)? 

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XVM leads to situations that make me want to rage at pubbies from time to time.

1) Battles where someone in your team decides the battle is lost before the countdown is over, and is kind enough to share that information with the rest of the team in chat.

Disconnects, people driving into lakes... drives me mad.

2) Battles where you have several purples and blues in your team while the enemy team has one if any

People go overly aggressive from the start, don't play arty safe and in general are a lot less careful than usually, just so that the unicum next to him wouldn't steal his precious exp/kills/wn...

...and you lose 15-5.

3)Pilgrims. These are the guys in your team that see you and go "oh, he is in a good clanu and nice stats too" "when i grow up i want to be like him, maybe if i follow him around i gets to kill stuff too?"

If you have many pilgrims this results in a lemming train trying to follow you into that spotting bush. guess what guys? if you go to where im going you aren't going to make it, in fact you are going to get killed before you do anything.

thats because i drive a batchat and you drive a t95/e100. Now just one pilgrim can be very dangerous too. Every scout has been in a situation where he looks at the enemies he is spotting with a smirk thinking that obj268 that was following you  is going to give you some sweet damage upon detection only to find out he has parked his vehicle right behind you and gets spotted after firing his gun and... guess who gets the shell?

ofc this is a rare occurance to me nowadays because i've learned to keep an eye on my surroundings (the hard way) but that pilgrim still messes up you beautiful spotting if he trys to do the shameful act described, even should you get out in time.

4)arty players with XVM

i do it. you do it. every arty with XVM does it.

should i shoot that red baron trying to kill himself the quickest way possible or.. oh! that purple maus... you shouldn't ever have left the cover of your rock, you statpadderer, you!

now this can work to your advantage too.

any SPG that is stupid enough to try to desperately land a hit on a moving scout that actually knows what he is doing is wasting a shell that could've landed. well most likely anyways.

i can tell you a little story today i played tier 6 lights with a friend and enemy 261 was trying to hit him for basically the whole battle wasting maybe 10-ish shells.

finally he hit his tracks with splash and thus helping his mates finish my poor friend off.

after that he wrote on the chat "finally!" seemingly pleased with  his efforts.

can't say i wasn't pleased either, guy managed to deal a whopping ~200 damage during the whole battle with a tier X tank.

no wonder we won so easily :D

 

ok ty it was fun venting, feel much better already :smallsmile: time to play some more internet tanks again.

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 oh! that purple maus... you shouldn't ever have left the cover of your rock, you statpadderer, you!

 

 

haha, you used 'statpadder' and 'Maus' in the same sentence....you made a  funny!

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