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Gryphon_

WN8 Expected Values Update

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Existing tanks stays the same.

 

I haven't been posting here, after just sharing it with Kitten personally.
Though, I'm not sure about progress on the values. :^)

 

0.9.17.1 // Main Branch -- Normal tanks missing
Name                     ID     Tier  Type    Nation   Status    Name_ID
VK 100.01 P              19729  8     ht      german   new       G115_Typ_205B
Mäuschen                 18705  9     ht      german   new       G110_Typ_205
Pz.Kpfw. VII             19473  10    ht      german   new       G92_VK7201P


0.9.17.1 // Main Branch -- Premiums missing
Name                     ID     Tier  Type    Nation   Status    Name_ID
KV-122                   49921  7     heavy   ussr     test      R133_KV_122
Object 252U Defender     48641  8     ht      ussr     new prem  R134_Object_252K


0.9.17.1 // Main Branch -- Supertesters
Name                     ID     Tier  Type    Nation   Status    Name_ID
Object 257               50433  10    heavy   ussr     test      R129_Object_257
T-44-85M                 57345  8     medium  ussr     new prem  R98_T44_85M
T-44-100M                48897  8     medium  ussr     new prem  R122_T44_100B
VK 65.01 (H)             59409  5     heavy   germany  test      G122_VK6501H
Tiger II (H)             49681  7     heavy   germany  new prem  G16_PzVIB_Tiger_II_F
Jagdtiger (H)            49425  8     td      germany  new prem  G44_JagdTigerH
T92 Lt                   57889  7     lt      usa      test      A99_T92_LT
Chrysler K               58657  8     heavy   usa      test      A115_Chrysler_K
Somua SM                 62273  8     heavy   france   test      F84_Somua_SM
T95/Chieftain            56401  10    medium  uk       test      GB88_T95_Chieftain_turret
Strv 81                  52353  8     medium  sweden   new prem  S23_Strv_81
Strv S1                  52097  8     td      sweden   test      S22_Strv_S1


0.9.18 // Common Test
Name                     ID     Tier  Type    Nation   Status    Name_ID
LTG                      ???    7     lt      ussr     new       R131_Tank_Gavalov
T-100                    19201  10    lt      ussr     new       R132_VNII_100LT
HWK 12                   20241  8     lt      germany  new       G126_HWK_12
Rheinmetall Panzerwagen  19985  10    lt      germany  new       G125_Spz_57_Rh
XM551 Sheridan           19489  10    lt      us       new       A116_XM551
Bat.-Châtillon 12 t      17473  8     lt      france   new       F87_Batignolles-Chatillon_12t
AMX 13 105               17217  10    lt      france   new       F88_AMX_13_105
WZ-132A                  5681   9     lt      china    new       Ch28_WZ_132A
WZ-132-1                 5937   10    lt      china    new       Ch29_Type_62C_prot

0.9.18 // Common Test -- Premiums
Name                     ID     Tier  Type    Nation   Status    Name_ID
M4 Thunderbolt           59681  6     mt      usa      new       A118_M4_Thunderbolt

 

Haven't checked for LTG (Tier 7 RU) light tank, as this is info from the previous sandbox.
Been busy, so haven't really taken a look if they actually changed in CT, nor taken a look on LTG.

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In about 24 hours - assuming the patch comes to NA tomorrow - the forums will start filling up with posts like "where are the expected values for 9.18."

If or when the team gets tired of doing these updates it might be time to consider going to one set of values per type/tier - ie 50 sets of values total. I did the work on that 18 months ago. I realize its a big change in concept, but it would mean that WN8 can live on with no-one at the helm, which is better than it falling into disrepair. Let me know if you want to go there...

 

 

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I want to go there. Call it WN7.1 since conceptually that's what it'd be. This new MM, the massive changes to arty, WG should be calling this patch 10.0. History has crushed the validity of it all.

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I resurrected my old stuff last night and thought more about how this would work. The easiest way to get started is to show the current expected values in a boxplot (for each tier). The boxplot shows how the values change per tier, and the spread of values per type/tier that we aim to consolidate into one (the mean). 

Once we have that first set of mean values I can run the usual WN8 method with the usual filters (50 battles, upper 50% of tanks by WN8, etc) and use the regression method to fine tune the first set of values to the latest data. I tried this using old data and the changes are small. I established years ago that averaged values do just as good a job at the account level of correlating WN8 to rWINc so we are good in an academic sense. 

Finally, as the data is historical, we need to make some decisions about how to handle the tier changes and new tanks in the light line. To avoid big changes in player WN8 we should consider uptiering the values we just created for the tier 7 and 8 lights as 75% of them have gone up a tier, and then extrapolating for tier 7 and 10. Its anyone's guess as to whether the lights will be more or less effective after the changes, but we dont want big changes to player WN8 if we want to stay under the radar and avoid a shouting match.

We will also need to agree on the 'message' to go out with the change, if we end up doing this (come back Kitten, all is forgiven!). Players will quickly realize that playing bad tanks will hurt them (and already has, as the new values will punish those who played bad tanks).

Thoughts?

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21 hours ago, CraBeatOff said:

I want to go there. Call it WN7.1 since conceptually that's what it'd be. This new MM, the massive changes to arty, WG should be calling this patch 10.0. History has crushed the validity of it all.

I concur. Time to retire WN8 in its current form.

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Its important to keep using the infrastructure in place around WN8 rather than try to introduce this as a new rating and kill off WN8 as such. Lots of websites pull WN8 values to feed their webpages and the intent here is to keep those pages current and complete. We can achieve that in the short term by issuing a regular expected values update where the values are in fact averages. In future, for every new tank that comes along we just apply the appropriate values for that that type and tier. In time, the sites will rewrite their code to accept the much simpler expected values table we can generate this way (just 50 sets of values - 1 for each type/tier combination), and then life is easy and the good ship 'WN8' will sail into the sunset with no-one at the helm.

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3 minutes ago, Gryphon_ said:

Its important to keep using the infrastructure in place around WN8 rather than try to introduce this as a new rating and kill off WN8 as such. Lots of websites pull WN8 values to feed their webpages and the intent here is to keep those pages current and complete. We can achieve that in the short term by issuing a regular expected values update where the values are in fact averages. In future, for every new tank that comes along we just apply the appropriate values for that that type and tier. In time, the sites will rewrite their code to accept the much simpler expected values table we can generate this way (just 50 sets of values - 1 for each type/tier combination), and then life is easy and the good ship 'WN8' will sail into the sunset with no-one at the helm.

Sounds good.

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